Is it time for Weiters to go to Bowie?

[Frobby]

You are correct about the senior year thing, and I knew that. I'm just a bonehead who morphed last year in college into senior year.

However, I can specifically remember last year people wondering why he had regressed. His sophomore year was a lot better, and hitting 10 homers in the ballpark he was playing in, with his non-conference schedule, was really low for someone of his talent. And he wasn't being pitched around. With that in mind, I was ECSTATIC when we drafted him last year.

So the talent was off the charts, but his production was not. Hence, not setting the world on fire.

Look, I have no doubt about his talent. Keith Law said last year that he was a once in a decade talent, and I did/still believe that to be true. But the key word is talent. And with our track record of rushing talent, and being unable to develop it consistently, I'd much rather they took their time and were calculated about his progression.

And I'm not saying that what he has done at Frederick has been anything close to a fluke. I'm saying that its only been 220 ABs, and if you combined that with his sub-par (for him) JUNIOR year, I can't see how you can say that his promotion to AA has been way overdue.

Just to clear up my end of this, I'm not one of the people arguing that a promotion to AA is way overdue. (I realize your initial post on this wasn't directed at me, anyway.)

I do think, however, that Wieters could be moved at any time, and should be moved after the Carolina League all-star game at the latest.

I'm still a little surprised at your assessment of Wieters' junior year. I see three years that all look the same -- 1.051 OPS, 1.086 OPS, 1.072 OPS. And now a 1.018 OPS at Frederick. I think it's pretty hard to conclude he's not ready to move up a level, at least offensively.

Have a look at Ryan Zimmerman, who like Wieters played in the ACC. His OPS at UVA was .716, then .849, then 1.050. And yet, he was playing in the majors in September of the year he was drafted, and never played minor league ball again.

I'm not saying that the Nats' approach is better, or that you treat a catcher the same way you treat a 3B. But the contrast is pretty stark, and certainly suggests that moving Wieters to AA wouldn't be at all hasty.

[McNulty]

Just to clear up my end of this, I'm not one of the people arguing that a promotion to AA is way overdue. (I realize your initial post on this wasn't directed at me, anyway.)

I do think, however, that Wieters could be moved at any time, and should be moved after the Carolina League all-star game at the latest.

I'm still a little surprised at your assessment of Wieters' junior year. I see three years that all look the same -- 1.051 OPS, 1.086 OPS, 1.072 OPS. And now a 1.018 OPS at Frederick. I think it's pretty hard to conclude he's not ready to move up a level, at least offensively.

Have a look at Ryan Zimmerman, who like Wieters played in the ACC. His OPS at UVA was .716, then .849, then 1.050. And yet, he was playing in the majors in September of the year he was drafted, and never played minor league ball again.

I'm not saying that the Nats' approach is better, or that you treat a catcher the same way you treat a 3B. But the contrast is pretty stark, and certainly suggests that moving Wieters to AA wouldn't be at all hasty.

Perhaps I'm being overly simplistic in just looking at his HR numbers and not the OPS. I think for an elite college player, the OPS (or anything for that matter) should continue to trend upwards as he gains more experience. Posey and Gordon Beckham definitely did so. Wieters OPS were nothing to sneeze at for sure, but players like Posey put up an OPS over 1.400 in their last years, after putting up an OPS of about .900 during his freshman year, and about 1.000 during his sophomore year.

If we were going with comps, I would certainly agree that Zimmerman's path after being drafted is a good one for arguing that he should be in AA. And I'm not saying that he shouldn't. I would have absolutely no problem if they moved him up. My only point was that if they decide to keep him in High A for a bit longer, I'm OK with that as well.

[IamtheSkip]

Perhaps I'm being overly simplistic in just looking at his HR numbers and not the OPS. I think for an elite college player, the OPS (or anything for that matter) should continue to trend upwards as he gains more experience. Posey and Gordon Beckham definitely did so. Wieters OPS were nothing to sneeze at for sure, but players like Posey put up an OPS over 1.400 in their last years, after putting up an OPS of about .900 during his freshman year, and about 1.000 during his sophomore year.

If we were going with comps, I would certainly agree that Zimmerman's path after being drafted is a good one for arguing that he should be in AA. And I'm not saying that he shouldn't. I would have absolutely no problem if they moved him up. My only point was that if they decide to keep him in High A for a bit longer, I'm OK with that as well.

Wieters having a 1.000 OPS in his first year in pro ball is the equivalent of blowing the top off during his final year of school ball.

The sample size is growing by the day, and the kid's red hot. Yes, he's had a bad stretch. But everyone slumps. One bad go of it by a kid that's in his first year of pro ball isn't anything out of the ordinary.

He's destroying High A, and more than ready to have a go at the AA pitchers. Letting him continue to rake in Frederick doesn't make sense.

I thought the old story was to promote a guy when he had mastered his level of play? Well Wieters has more than done that in High A. Get him on the move.

[TGO]

I do think, however, that Wieters could be moved at any time, and should be moved after the Carolina League all-star game at the latest.

Basically how I feel as well. I'm a little shocked by the people acting as if it is ignorant or negligent to leave him in Frederick for another three weeks. It isn't. Could he handle a promotion now? Yes. Should he be promoted? Maybe, or even probably. Is waiting a few more weeks going to hurt? No.

[IamtheSkip]

Basically how I feel as well. I'm a little shocked by the people acting as if it is ignorant or negligent to leave him in Frederick for another three weeks. It isn't. Could he handle a promotion now? Yes. Should he be promoted? Maybe, or even probably. Is waiting a few more weeks going to hurt? No.

How can you make that argument?

You say he could handle a promotion. Okay. But you follow it with "Is waiting a few more weeks going to hurt?"

The issue the pro-immediate promotion folks like myself are taking is that keeping him in a High A isn't helping any more either. He's on fire, and needs to see what the next level of competition is like. The sooner he does, the sooner he can start adjusting to it.

[Fairfax Bird]

I happen to believe that you develop better when you are facing better competition and are challenged.

Fair enough and I hope he gets moved soon, just playing devil's advocate that there are people who like to see prospects dominate before moving. I tend to want to take it case by case and in this case I think you are right, he needs to move.

[McNulty]

How can you make that argument?

You say he could handle a promotion. Okay. But you follow it with "Is waiting a few more weeks going to hurt?"

The issue the pro-immediate promotion folks like myself are taking is that keeping him in a High A isn't helping any more either. He's on fire, and needs to see what the next level of competition is like. The sooner he does, the sooner he can start adjusting to it.

Look at what Colby Rasmus is doing this year after his promotion.

[Sports Guy]

Look at what Colby Rasmus is doing this year after his promotion.

Who cares?

[McNulty]

Who cares?

I do, for one. He's 22 in two months, has had three years of minor league seasoning before this year, and is stuggling mightly in AAA. Kevin Goldstein had him listed as the 8th best overall minor league prospect coming into this year. He put up an OPS of 932 last year in AA.

My point is that making the jump to the next level isn't simply a discussion of how the player has performed at his current level.

[AVencill]

Andy MacPhail and his two sons just watched Matt Wieters launch his 14th homer of the year, a two-run shot to center field.

[Sports Guy]

I do, for one. He's 22 in two months, has had three years of minor league seasoning before this year, and is stuggling mightly in AAA. Kevin Goldstein had him listed as the 8th best overall minor league prospect coming into this year. He put up an OPS of 932 last year in AA.

My point is that making the jump to the next level isn't simply a discussion of how the player has performed at his current level.

For position players, yes it is.

[McNulty]

For position players, yes it is.

How so?

letters

[Sports Guy]

How so?

letters

What else are you going to look at?

This assumes no attitude issues, suspensions, etc....

[McNulty]

What else are you going to look at?

This assumes no attitude issues, suspensions, etc....

Age, level of experience, your development philosophy, league or park factors, injury history, time at current level, past production levels, BB/K rates, etc...

[Sports Guy]

Age, level of experience, your development philosophy, league or park factors, injury history, time at current level, past production levels, BB/K rates, etc...

Age and level of experience is relatively meaningless....Are you performing at a high level? Are you being challenged enough..If not, then you need to be moved up.

The rest of the stuff pretty much falls under production.