Can the O's reload for 2018 if they sell?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

Tillman will be resigned if he pitches well in the 2nd half.  Bundy and Gausman give the O's the top three.  I think Hardy come back on a smaller one year contract.  Tejada maybe the UIF that can play SS.   Hays in right or center.  

Does Britton extend this off season?  He is a Peter favorite.  I would wait until he is a free agent.  He is extends by the miccli of the off season or he is trade.  Same with Manny.   Peter can sign who ever he wants.  Jimenez, Miley, Kim, Flaherty, Nuno and half of Hardy salary adds up to 35m.

Corn is right about too many left fielders.  Stwart, Moutcastle and Sisco could be vulnerable.

Is it possible to the O's to reload for 2018?.  Of course it is.

 

 

I only think Tillman should be resigned if he doesn't pitch well and has to take a cheap hometown pillow deal.  

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tillman will be resigned if he pitches well in the 2nd half.  Bundy and Gausman give the O's the top three.  I think Hardy come back on a smaller one year contract.  Tejada maybe the UIF that can play SS.   Hays in right or center.  

Does Britton extend this off season?  He is a Peter favorite.  I would wait until he is a free agent.  He is extends by the miccli of the off season or he is trade.  Same with Manny.   Peter can sign who ever he wants.  Jimenez, Miley, Kim, Flaherty, Nuno and half of Hardy salary adds up to 35m.

Corn is right about too many left fielders.  Stwart, Moutcastle and Sisco could be vulnerable.

Is it possible to the O's to reload for 2018?.  Of course it is.

 

 

This post makes me wanna vomit and get angry at you, then I realize all of those things are very possible. 

If Manny goes into 2018 with no resolution, everyone should just be fired. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I only think Tillman should be resigned if he doesn't pitch well and has to take a cheap hometown pillow deal.  

I think we're getting way ahead of ourselves on the prospect of Tillman pitching well over the final 2.5 months.     I didn't see his start the other day, and I know that several posters said he looked like the old Tillman, but in their postgame pressers neither Buck nor Tillman seemed all that enthused about Tillman's performance.  In any event, literally every pitcher in the rotation has had their excellent games, and one game isn't that likely to signal some sea change in Tillman's performance the rest of the year.    That said, I'm of course hoping that he does indeed do a complete 180.

[billw76]

I think it's possible that we could contend next season, but I don't really see it being a realistic expectation. 

I think it will mostly depend on who replaces Tillman, Ubaldo and Miley, I mean could the starting pitching be any worse next year. Offensively I think we should be fine, but it's all dependent on the pitching.

[LookitsPuck]

Who's the last starting pitching acquisition that Duquette made that has worked out in a meaningful way for the O's?

Miley is most likely gone after this season, Ubaldo gone and so is Tillman.

You need at least 3 decent starters for next season.

And if they sell their best bullpen arms...you'll have holes there as well.

So, I'm going to say: no. 

[SteveA]

It's awfully tough to see us having a good starting rotation next year.

It's very possible that the rest of the team, taken as a whole, could be playoff caliber.   We have bullpen depth, we have some solid position players.   With more in the wings. 

To have a GOOD rotation you would need Bundy, obviously.   Let's assume he continues to develop.   But you also need:

1) Gausman bounce back to 2016 form -- certainly very possible.  

2) Maybe re-sign Tillman and he gets healthy and bounces back to his best previous form -- possible (but less likely than Gausman in my opinion).  

3) Some type of medium priced free agent signing that works out, like Cashner's one year deal with Texas this year -- possible but for every one of those that works out, there are a bunch that don't.  

4) And then for the #5 spot, you probably need someone from this year's AAA shuttle to have an adequate season next year as a starter, be in Bleier, Aquino, Castro, or whoever.   (Or else find another Chen/Miguel Gonzalez type out of nowhere).     Also something I could see happening.

5) And then on top of that you need no significant injuries to starting pitchers.

Any ONE of those things can happen, reasonably.   None are a stretch of the imagination.   But when you multiple the probabilities altogether, it gets pretty unlikely.   Even if you assume that each of the 5 things I list has a 50/50 chance of happening (and I don't think that's true, the last 4 are probably UNDER 50%) -- then the chance of all 5 happening is about 3.1%.   That's basic math.

Can't like those odds.

[Lucky_13]

I think if they really want to compete next year and beyond then they have to trade all the free agents and all three of the relief pitchers. 

From Britton and Brach deals they need two mlb ready starters and either a corner outfielder or an infielder. Let's just say for argument they get Buehler from the Dodgers and Fedde from the Nats. I think they resign Tillman. 

Rotation: Bundy, Tillman, Gausman, Buehler, Fedde. That rotation has a lot of potential.

Then you use the money coming off the books to reinforce the bullpen and find a SS or COF, whichever was not filled in trades. Maybe get a veteran pitcher like Feldman or something. 

The lineup is pretty much the same. The outfield defense might be a bit better. The bullpen probably takes a hit but the rotation has the potential to be light years better. 

It would be a young team but they might be competitive. 

 

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I think if they really want to compete next year and beyond then they have to trade all the free agents and all three of the relief pitchers. 

From Britton and Brach deals they need two mlb ready starters and either a corner outfielder or an infielder. Let's just say for argument they get Buehler from the Dodgers and Fedde from the Nats. I think they resign Tillman. 

Rotation: Bundy, Tillman, Gausman, Buehler, Fedde. That rotation has a lot of potential.

Then you use the money coming off the books to reinforce the bullpen and find a SS or COF, whichever was not filled in trades. Maybe get a veteran pitcher like Feldman or something. 

The lineup is pretty much the same. The outfield defense might be a bit better. The bullpen probably takes a hit but the rotation has the potential to be light years better. 

It would be a young team but they might be competitive. 

 

Do you think Brach gets us Fedde?  I have trouble seeing that.

[Lucky_13]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Do you think Brach gets us Fedde?  I have trouble seeing that.

I think Brach is worth 1 top 100 prospect plus some lottery ticket prospects. 

[99ct]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That's roughly $50 mm which, if deployed efficiently, can fill a lot of holes.

 I'm not sure how we fix the rotation in one off season. We have no exciting MLB-ready pitchers, so we would really need to score big in this hypothetically upcoming fire sale. 

I agree with Frobby that 50m can, theoretically, fill a lot of holes. But who would we pay? The free agent market will be headlined by Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Pineda, and Cueto. 

I'm kinda of a fan of Cueto, but not sure I'd pay him what he'll be looking for.

 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, 99ct said:

 I'm not sure how we fix the rotation in one off season. We have no exciting MLB-ready pitchers, so we would really need to score big in this hypothetically upcoming fire sale. 

I agree with Frobby that 50m can, theoretically, fill a lot of holes. But who would we pay? The free agent market will be headlined by Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Pineda, and Cueto. 

I'm kinda of a fan of Cueto, but not sure I'd pay him what he'll be looking for.

 

Pineda had Tommy John surgery yesterday and will be out until next August or September.   We can get him REALLY cheap. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, 99ct said:

 I'm not sure how we fix the rotation in one off season. We have no exciting MLB-ready pitchers, so we would really need to score big in this hypothetically upcoming fire sale. 

I agree with Frobby that 50m can, theoretically, fill a lot of holes. But who would we pay? The free agent market will be headlined by Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka, Pineda, and Cueto. 

I'm kinda of a fan of Cueto, but not sure I'd pay him what he'll be looking for.

 

We're not going for those kinds of upgrades.    Not with Peter around.   

[DirtyBird]

Random thought:

On Opening Day 2019 the organization can include the following pitchers (opening day age):

Givens - 29
Gausman - 28
Bundy - 26
Castro - 24
Harvey - 24
Akin - 24
Scott - 24
Sedlock - 23
Dietz - 23
Gonzalez - 23
Wells - 22
Lowther - 22
Peluffo - 21
Peralta - 21
Hanifee - 20
Myers - 20
Hall - 20

 

[sportsfan8703]

Let's say we trade Brach, Britton, Smith, Castillo, and Miley(August).  I don't think we'll be able to move O'day's contract.  That puts us at,

SP: Bundy, Gausman, Wright, Aquino, Asher

BP: Givens, O'day, Bleier, Castro, Scott, Long, Ynoa/Wilson

Joseph, Davis, Schoop, Tejeda, Machado, Mancini, Jones, Hays, Trumbo

Pena/Wynns, Rickard, Santander, Sardinas

We would need as much SP as possible in trades for Britton and Brach.  Plus a SS.  It all depends on how much we get back.  

 

[mdbdotcom]

Sometimes I think that the state of our pitching (5.10 ERA, last in AL) has diverted attention from the fact that our offense is not even close to good. Here's where we stand in the AL right now:

• Runs scored - 10th
• On-base percentage - 12th
• OPS - 9th

Rebuilding for 2018 would mean adding 3 dependable starters (2 if Gausman has a comeback year) and several offensive upgrades. If DD or anyone else can pull that off by trading a couple of relievers (plus Smith and Castillo) and signing free agents, they will have done a masterful job.