Can the O's reload for 2018 if they sell?

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, Rojo13 said:

Can someone tell me why we are going to get two MLB starters for Brach and Britton when the White Sox just traded two very good relievers and Frazier and only got back a guy who is hitting .290 in A ball

Because the same Yankees team dealt Chapman and Miller last season for a number of top prospects.

Britton could have netted such a deal in the winter, but now he needs a few dominant outings to prove himself to other teams.  Brach is not on that level.  The moral of the story is, the Yankees have been winning trades on both sides.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Chen is going to be healthy enough to pitch next season.

That was not the question.   The question was who were the starters that Dan acquired that contributed in a meaningful way. 

[25 Nuggets]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

That was not the question.   The question was who were the starters that Dan acquired that contributed in a meaningful way. 

I think CoC was being facetious.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

I think CoC was being facetious.

How can you tell?

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Chen and Gonzalez. Norris for a year.

Chen was signed in 2012. 

Gonzo in 2012.

Norris in 2013.

[El Gordo]

We can pick up a good young SP plus for Britton. We have potential OF in Hays and Mullins. We can sign a mid rotation SP and Moustakas in FA we'll have plenty of money to spend.

[MDtransplant757]

3 hours ago, El Gordo said:

We can pick up a good young SP plus for Britton. We have potential OF in Hays and Mullins. We can sign a mid rotation SP and Moustakas in FA we'll have plenty of money to spend.

Alex Cobb and Mike Moustakis? You should see the foam coming out of my mouth

[Bahama O's Fan]

1 hour ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Alex Cobb and Mike Moustakis? You should see the foam coming out of my mouth

I want one top shelf pitcher. I mean one guy that is reliable 90% of the time they go out there.

[Luke-OH]

12 hours ago, Rojo13 said:

Can someone tell me why we are going to get two MLB starters for Brach and Britton when the White Sox just traded two very good relievers and Frazier and only got back a guy who is hitting .290 in A ball

Well I don't think we'll get two MLB ready starters for Brach and Britton, but we could get two top 100 prospects who are starting pitchers.

A few things to consider when judging that White Sox/Yankees trade.

First, Rutherford is a very good prospect, some analysts have him as high as top 25.  That's a valuable piece. The statement about .290 in A ball, is a meaningless statement, Manny Machado hit .276 in A ball, you don't judge a prospect based on batting average, even if you are just scouting the stat line.

Second, Frazier is barely a league average hitter this year, he's not a good defender, he's making 12million, and he's a rental. There is very little value there, Seth Smith is more valuable, comparable player, but only making 7m.

Third, Robertson is a good reliever but not dominant, he's basically been equal to Brad Brach over the past two years, but while Brach is making 3m this year, and will get an arbitration raise next year (probably to 5m or so), Robertson is making 12m this year and gets 13m next year.  So similar production to Brach, but costs about 12m more over the 1.5ish years of control, therefore less valuable.

So now to the most valuable asset the Sox traded, Kahnle.  This is a guy who has been lights out this year, but literally only has 37 innings of being a quality reliever.  He's cost controlled and a long term asset, but he's a gamble, he doesn't have a long track record.  

So basically the White Sox got a top prospect, and some lottery tickets (I like Tito Polo, he's like the Yankees' Cedric Mullins) and Tyler Clippard for Seth Smith, a less valuable Brad Brach, and a reliever with elite stuff who is having his first good season after years of control problems.

[Rojo13]

14 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Well I don't think we'll get two MLB ready starters for Brach and Britton, but we could get two top 100 prospects who are starting pitchers.

A few things to consider when judging that White Sox/Yankees trade.

First, Rutherford is a very good prospect, some analysts have him as high as top 25.  That's a valuable piece. The statement about .290 in A ball, is a meaningless statement, Manny Machado hit .276 in A ball, you don't judge a prospect based on batting average, even if you are just scouting the stat line.

Second, Frazier is barely a league average hitter this year, he's not a good defender, he's making 12million, and he's a rental. There is very little value there, Seth Smith is more valuable, comparable player, but only making 7m.

Third, Robertson is a good reliever but not dominant, he's basically been equal to Brad Brach over the past two years, but while Brach is making 3m this year, and will get an arbitration raise next year (probably to 5m or so), Robertson is making 12m this year and gets 13m next year.  So similar production to Brach, but costs about 12m more over the 1.5ish years of control, therefore less valuable.

So now to the most valuable asset the Sox traded, Kahnle.  This is a guy who has been lights out this year, but literally only has 37 innings of being a quality reliever.  He's cost controlled and a long term asset, but he's a gamble, he doesn't have a long track record.  

So basically the White Sox got a top prospect, and some lottery tickets (I like Tito Polo, he's like the Yankees' Cedric Mullins) and Tyler Clippard for Seth Smith, a less valuable Brad Brach, and a reliever with elite stuff who is having his first good season after years of control problems.

Thanks for the explanation. The salary implications were a nice add. Great post.

The Balimore Sun has a story on the front page of Sports section today about how the Yankees provided us the bullprint of what to do. It is worth noting that it reminds us at the end of the story that the Yankees basically had to do a trade this year to get relief help

But the haul the Yankees gave up closely resembled the one they brought in for Chapman — a touted position player (outfielder Blake Rutherford), a major league reliever (Tyler Clippard), plus strong secondary pieces (left-hander Ian Clarkin and outfielder Tito Polo).

That lines up with a column from Schmuck saying the Orioles shouldn't totally dismantle the bullpen.

[ChuckS]

I think there is a bit of delusion going around on how much Britton or Brach can bring back.

It seems like many of us want to ignore that Zach Britton has missed two months of the season due to injury and has been much more hittable (1.60) WHIP in his limited appearances. You don't think other teams are going to use that against us when bargaining? If this was the Zach Britton of a year ago and not coming off an injury, I agree we may be able to land a Miller/Chapman type package. But that's not the case.

There could always be a team willing to overpay. I hope that happens, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

 

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I think there is a bit of delusion going around on how much Britton or Brach can bring back.

It seems like many of us want to ignore that Zach Britton has missed two months of the season due to injury and has been much more hittable (1.60) WHIP in his limited appearances. You don't think other teams are going to use that against us when bargaining? If this was the Zach Britton of a year ago and not coming off an injury, I agree we may be able to land a Miller/Chapman type package. But that's not the case.

There could always be a team willing to overpay. I hope that happens, but I'm keeping my expectations in check.

 

I don't think we get a Miller/Chapman type package, but one top 50ish guy is possible if Britton has a couple more outings with pre-injury velocity and movement. 

[Camden_yardbird]

Accepting less than the Yankees got is why the Orioles fans will hope for championships and the Yankees will be celebrating them.

I realize the injury matters, so does arguably the best season ever put up for a reliever and a full year of control.  There are a lot of reasons the two should be seen as comparavle pieces.

[ChuckS]

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I don't think we get a Miller/Chapman type package, but one top 50ish guy is possible if Britton has a couple more outings with pre-injury velocity and movement. 

Certainly. 

I would expect/hope Britton and Brach to each fetch 1-2 top 100 prospects. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Certainly. 

I would expect/hope Britton and Brach to each fetch 1-2 top 100 prospects. 

The only problem is the top 100 is more like the top 80 once you remove the White Sox, the Braves and of course the O's from the list.