This Off Season Feels So Hopeless

[TommyPickles]

I'm very interested to see what pitchers the Os get. I think they'll get two. Yeah they won't be CY Young winners next year, but all they really need is pretty good to dramatically improve their team.

 

I like Chatwood and Vargas as a duo.

And there's tons of others who would help.

[Enjoy Terror]

This thread was made exactly six years ago.

Read these comments— “what would make you happy this offseason?” By and large, the answer was “nothing”. Sign Fielder, sign Darvish, win games, but mostly ... “nothing”.

What about the end of the offseason?

Oh man! 2012 is going to suck! The offseason turned out to be terrible, we did nothing, signed nobody...

But we did win 93 games that year.

Just trying to say that it all looks bleak until it suddenly isn’t. If you open your mind, you can believe that this year’s team is capable of doing great things even if the answers don’t seem all that apparent.

[Reboulet'sStache]

12 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

This thread was made exactly six years ago.

Read these comments— “what would make you happy this offseason?” By and large, the answer was “nothing”. Sign Fielder, sign Darvish, win games, but mostly ... “nothing”.

What about the end of the offseason?

Oh man! 2012 is going to suck! The offseason turned out to be terrible, we did nothing, signed nobody...

But we did win 93 games that year.

Just trying to say that it all looks bleak until it suddenly isn’t. If you open your mind, you can believe that this year’s team is capable of doing great things even if the answers don’t seem all that apparent.

We had some controllable pieces that were starting to come into big WAR years.  We also had somewhat of a farm system.  Now we've tied money into bad contracts, are at the "fish or cut bait" portion on some important contracts, and are having diminishing returns.
We also outperformed the metrics during those years, until we didn't.  You can say, "hey, we might have another elite bullpen and outperform what the analytics say and catch the Red Sox and Yankees during down periods," but I won't be banking on that. This is a team that should have done some selling the previous years, and REALLY needs to do some selling now.

[Enjoy Terror]

12 minutes ago, Reboulet'sStache said:

We had some controllable pieces that were starting to come into big WAR years.  We also had somewhat of a farm system.  Now we've tied money into bad contracts, are at the "fish or cut bait" portion on some important contracts, and are having diminishing returns.
We also outperformed the metrics during those years, until we didn't.  You can say, "hey, we might have another elite bullpen and outperform what the analytics say and catch the Red Sox and Yankees during down periods," but I won't be banking on that. This is a team that should have done some selling the previous years, and REALLY needs to do some selling now.

If it's so obvious why we won that year, then why did no one predict it? There's literally not one in 160 replies offering your excuses as reasons we would eventually win 93 games.

And to three of your points:

Point #1: We have two huge controllable pieces coming into big WAR years now-- Bundy and Gausman. 

Point #2: Our farm system is better now than it's been in probably... literally two decades. 

Point #3: We've tied up money into one contract-- Chris Davis. And at the time we had -1.1 WAR from Brian Roberts, the $40M man. Chris' contract is worse, but you're making it out to be some sort of "the Orioles can't win because of Chris Davis" which is just a really poor argument.

And honestly, it seems you learned nothing from reading those threads. You're just parroting the same inane stuff they were back then.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Just now, Enjoy Terror said:

If it's so obvious why we won that year, then why did no one predict it? There's literally not one in 160 replies offering your excuses as reasons we would eventually win 93 games.

And to three of your points:

Point #1: We have two huge controllable pieces coming into big WAR years now-- Bundy and Gausman. 

Point #2: Our farm system is better now than it's been in probably... literally two decades. 

Point #3: We've tied up money into one contract-- Chris Davis. And at the time we had -1.1 WAR from Brian Roberts, the $40M man. Chris' contract is worse, but you're making it out to be some sort of "the Orioles can't win because of Chris Davis" which is just a really poor argument.

 

 

 

 Huh?  My point was that it wasn't obvious why we won.  We probably shouldn't have won.  So people predicting we need to do something those off-seasons, weren't wrong.  We just took advantage of a down division, and had a unit that allowed us to outperform the metrics.

1.  We aren't anywhere close to being the young, cost controlled team we were then.  That's not even up for debate.
2.  No 

[OFFNY]

44 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 

If it's so obvious why we won that year, then why did no one predict it ??? There's literally not one in 160 replies offering your excuses as reasons we would eventually win 93 games.

 

o

 

I agree with your overall point ........ one would be hard-pressed to find a lot of optimism among Oriole fans at-large at that time.

But also, brianod and myself predicted it/were not completely surprised by it. There may have been a few others, but I don't know of them offhand.

 

I had an "Original Big Ten" List that I had made back in 2009, and my overall feeling was that the Orioles would have a winning season in 2010, and would compete for a pennant in 2011. The list was part of the reason why I thought that the Orioles were on the verge of contention in the relatively near future ........ there were other reasons, also (Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Roberts prior to giving himself a concussion, etc.) I was off by a year with the Orioles competing for the Pennant, and I was off by 2 years in terms of the Orioles having a winning season. I thought that it would be a 2-year progression, but the Orioles did it all in one shot (in 2012.)

 

Brianod, on the other hand, made an out-and-out prediction in April of 2012 that the Orioles would win the division (he was off by 2 games, but it was still an incredible prediction in my mind.)

 

 

o

 

 

 

o

[Tx Oriole]

On 11/3/2017 at 11:24 AM, Dipper9 said:

Hey gang.  Long time no see.  

I wouldn't say the offseason is "hopeless," it just won't be exciting.  The position players are pretty much all coming back, with the exception of Beef, so nothing to look for there.  The pitching was atrocious in 2017, but we all know the Orioles won't be going after the top free agents, and we won't make trades of Manny or Britton for starters, so we're probably looking at Gausman, Bundy, a reduced contract Tillman, and then some conbination of our Triple A fodder and late Winter low cost solutions.

A lot went wrong in 2017, but unfortunately, we're bringing back a nearly identicle team and "hoping" for better results.  Not sure that's how a winning organization would handle things, but we are who we are.  

Hello Dipper. I'd say it's pretty hopeless. I will cheer for the O's. But its so frustrating knowing the FO could do better but they won't. 

[mdbdotcom]

Here is my "Lineup of Hope" for this year, which I hope to see in place by mid-May. The hope factor is predicated on three things:

1. Chris Davis bounces back to at least his historically average levels
2. The youngsters improve as hoped
3. We spend all our money on pitchers this off-season and don't add any veteran position players

For your consideration ...

1. Mullins CF (S)
2. Machado 3B (R)
3. Schoop 2B (R)
4. Davis 1B (L)
5. Jones RF (R)
6. Mancini DH (r)
7. Sisco C (L)
8. Beckham SS (R)
9. Hays LF (R)

This gives us 3 left-handed hitters, so we really don't need to add one. And on the bench:

• Joseph
• Trumbo
• Santander or Stewart
• Utility infielder

Best case scenario is that this lineup is faster and more athletic than 2017's and scores runs without always waiting for the home run. It would be the best outfield defense we've had in quite a few years, so that would help the pitchers.

Worst case scenario is that the lineup struggles mightily and we find out what we have in place for the future with these young guys, so we can adjust accordingly. 

So, all we'd have to do is add those pitchers. Feeling more hopeful now?

[weams]

On 11/3/2017 at 12:24 PM, Dipper9 said:

Hey gang.  Long time no see.  

I wouldn't say the offseason is "hopeless," it just won't be exciting.  The position players are pretty much all coming back, with the exception of Beef, so nothing to look for there.  The pitching was atrocious in 2017, but we all know the Orioles won't be going after the top free agents, and we won't make trades of Manny or Britton for starters, so we're probably looking at Gausman, Bundy, a reduced contract Tillman, and then some conbination of our Triple A fodder and late Winter low cost solutions.

A lot went wrong in 2017, but unfortunately, we're bringing back a nearly identicle team and "hoping" for better results.  Not sure that's how a winning organization would handle things, but we are who we are.  

I miss you, man. 

[Dipper9]

On 11/3/2017 at 12:27 PM, Aglets said:

Dipper!
 

We missed you!   Now if someone can get Drungo back on here then my heart will be whole once again.

Thanks Brother!  Work has become so busy the past couple years, I haven't been able to pass my time away on the Hangout.  I'm going to try to check in on you all more often, as I do miss all of you.  

 

Maybe the Orioles can have an Astros type run next year?  

[tntoriole]

Nothing is hopeless.  In fact, for most all the years I have been a fan, I have usually predicted better seasons for the Orioles than what actually ensues.   This is from my bias of the early teams of my childhood when the Orioles were always better than any other team, just by definition.    Even in the dark seasons, when every cognitive part of my brain knew that there was no way Daniel Cabrera was going to become that TOR stud, I still would go out there in the spring and think....ummm, sure, why not, if this falls right, if that falls the other way, if I squint my eyes just so....then they could make the playoffs.

 

But it doesn't feel like this for me this offseason.  For the first time in a really long time.   Maybe it is just the approaching changes that are inevitable...Manny leaving,  Buck and Duquette's contracts ending,  the old man getting older and older....but it just seems that 2018 is going to be one of those years where the die is cast for another 5-6 years and that while we have had signficant success over the 2012-2016 time frame we will unfortunately spend some time in the wilderness again.  

Just on a side note,  I was serving wine at my local Rotary wine tasting fundraiser last night.   As I do every year,  I had some Orioles memorabilia at my table.  Last night, I had a Brooks lithograph that had the following inscriptions...HOF 1983,  16x Gold Gloves, AL MVP 1964,  ASG MVP 1966, WS MVP 1970.....Many of the people at my event did not really know much of the detail of Brooks career, so  I would read these inscriptions out loud to them.    But it was the last inscription at the bottom that really stuck out for them and for me....All Century Team. 100 years of baseball played....Brooks is your third baseman.    Anyway, it reminded me of the depth, richness, majesty even of the Orioles I have been privileged to watch over all these years.    So, even though things may turn dark,  I will hope for the light and wait for the sun.  

 

 

 

[Frobby]

I don’t have enough hubris to believe I know what’s going to happen.    I’m not crazy about the position we’re in, but one or two acquisitions that turn out unexpectedly well and players coming into their own can change the picture very quickly.    I would not call myself optimistic right now, but I’m far from hopeless.    

One thing that gives me hope — and I think a lot of posters underestimate this — is that it would be just about impossible to assemble a starting pitching staff as inept as last year’s.     Would it be hard to turn it into an above average rotation?   Yes.   But would it be hard to improve it by a lot?   No.    It’s not like our 2016 rotation was anything great (57-58, 4.72 ERA, 13th in the league), but it was enough to get us to the playoffs.    Returning to that level of mediocrity, compared to last year’s complete ineptitude (45-69, 5.70 ERA, dead last by half a run), really shouldn’t be that hard to do.

[tntoriole]

 

This  way too early power rankings has us 26th in MLB and essentially saying Manny and other parts will be sold when management “realizes how bad this team is.”  

 

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21139850/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-offseason

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

 

This  way too early power rankings has us 26th in MLB and essentially saying Manny and other parts will be sold when management “realizes how bad this team is.”  

 

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21139850/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-offseason

I don’t know why you put the last part in quotes, since that isn’t what the article actually says.   It says players will be traded “when the front office realizes the team isn’t very good.”    That’s a bit different.  

In any event, the “way too early” title to the article is completely accurate.     The team is going to look a lot different in March than it looks today, so I really couldn’t care less what power ranking they’re given by ESPN on Novermber 5.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

 

This  way too early power rankings has us 26th in MLB and essentially saying Manny and other parts will be sold when management “realizes how bad this team is.”  

 

 

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21139850/ranking-mlb-teams-ahead-offseason

They spelled Ownership wrong.