Brian Roberts trade rumors back on!

[Cubsfan]

I think we could package Roberts with some prospects and Kevin Millar for Manny Ramirez. I have a feeling the Red Sox are down on him.

The Red Sox have Pedroia at 2b, why would they want BRob?

[blueberryale77]

From Rosenthal's article he's saying that BRob would not be enough for Weeks. Baltimore would have to throw in a young pitcher and a bullpen arm. His value is way down right now, but he's starting to warm up with the bat so who knows. I'd hang onto him while his value is low, as you said he's worth way more to us.

Anyone who knows how to look at baseball stats beyond batting average, which includes most scouts and GMs but apparently not Ken Rosenthal, realizes that Roberts is having a very solid season. The only thing making his value lower than it was in spring training is the amount of time remaining on his contract.

[TyCobb]

Anyone who knows how to look at baseball stats beyond batting average, which includes most scouts and GMs but apparently not Ken Rosenthal, realizes that Roberts is having a very solid season. The only thing making his value lower than it was in spring training is the amount of time remaining on his contract.

How about his huge decline in defense and base running?

[Malike]

Anyone who knows how to look at baseball stats beyond batting average, which includes most scouts and GMs but apparently not Ken Rosenthal, realizes that Roberts is having a very solid season. The only thing making his value lower than it was in spring training is the amount of time remaining on his contract.

Well, I see your point but its not a reach to think he may be declining. Unfortunately, the things that made Brian a successful player are usually the first things to go when players start to decline. He's not going to make a living off his bat alone, and if he couldnt hit a lick he wouldnt have been in the majors to begin with as his defense is quite average. I'm a fan of his, but I'll be awaiting your wrath for daring to say something not so positive. :laughlol:

[crawdad]

This is definitely not enough in return for the O's.

It certainly is equal long term value and probably realistic in Milwaukee's payroll framework. The big IF is to what degree do the Brewers value these guys. If they overvalue them, then LaPorta and others are possibilities. If they have a good sense of what things are worth . . . this is probably a good first stab for them to us. Brewers typically do not trade away their top talent and these guys are good, but redundant in their system.

I do think Stotle is right that we tend to overvalue Roberts.

[Mackus]

How about his huge decline in defense and base running?

I agree he's been worse in these areas, but "huge decline" is a bit much.

Last year he stole 50 bases and got caught 7 times, an 88% rate, he was terrific. For his career (coming into the year) he had an 80% rate. This year he is on a pace for 48 steals and 13 CS, a 79% rate. And that is despite a nagging foot injury for a while and Trembley's general team gameplan of being more aggressive on the bases (which inherently leads to more runners thrown out, more pickoffs, and more CS, but also a few more SB as well). Rumors of his demise on the bases are greatly exaggerated, IMO. He's still quite good.

[blueberryale77]

How about his huge decline in defense and base running?

Five caught stealings (three of which were really pickoffs) does not a "huge decline" make. He's still on pace to steal nearly 50 bases at a 77% success rate. Trembley has put the pedal to the floor with the running game, causing everyone to run or be overly aggressive in some situations where they normally might not. As for defense, he has been having a bit of an off year, with the foot injury probably playing a significant part in that, but the only stat I've seen showing any kind of "huge" decline is plus/minus, which is as subjective as you can get. Also worthy of consideration is the fact that we've had a revolving door at shortstop and not one of them has played well defensively. One half of the double play combo tends to affect the other.

[Three Run Homer]

The Red Sox have Pedroia at 2b, why would they want BRob?

Ummm...I think the Ramirez post was satirical.

[TyCobb]

Five caught stealings (three of which were really pickoffs) does not a "huge decline" make. He's still on pace to steal nearly 50 bases at a 77% success rate. Trembley has put the pedal to the floor with the running game, causing everyone to run or be overly aggressive in some situations where they normally might not. As for defense, he has been having a bit of an off year, with the foot injury probably playing a significant part in that, but the only stat I've seen showing any kind of "huge" decline is plus/minus, which is as subjective as you can get. Also worthy of consideration is the fact that we've had a revolving door at shortstop and not one of them has played well defensively. One half of the double play combo tends to affect the other.

Sure the SS affects double plays, but not ground balls to the 2nd base side.

He has 7 CS last year and has 5 this season. A 87% steal rate to 77% is pretty big especially when he isn't going to get near 50 SB this season.

His range has been awful and IMO is below average this year. So many times I see balls a few years ago he would get a glove, now going thru easily.

[blueberryale77]

Sure the SS affects double plays, but not ground balls to the 2nd base side.

He has 7 CS last year and has 5 this season. A 87% steal rate to 77% is pretty big especially when he isn't going to get near 50 SB this season.

His range has been awful and IMO is below average this year. So many times I see balls a few years ago he would get a glove, now going thru easily.

Like Mackus said, he had a career year in the basestealing department last year. He can't be expected to be near-perfect every year. He is in fact on pace to get very close to 50 steals, despite having gone through a period where he wasn't running because of his foot. If he were getting thrown out frequently, there might some kind of projectable problem, but he's only been thrown out at the base he was trying to steal two or three times and one of those was a very blatantly blown call by the ump. Pickoffs happen from overaggressiveness, something which has been a team-wide phenomenon, not from losing speed.

As for defense, like I said I do think there's room for improvement. He has looked tentative about diving for balls which has caused him to not get some balls he definitely could have gotten. I haven't seen any evidence that his physical quickness has declined though, as he has gotten to some balls quite well. I think any "decline" over the last two months has been a combination of the foot injury and being in a little bit of a funk.

[crawdad]

Sure the SS affects double plays, but not ground balls to the 2nd base side.

He has 7 CS last year and has 5 this season. A 87% steal rate to 77% is pretty big especially when he isn't going to get near 50 SB this season.

His range has been awful and IMO is below average this year. So many times I see balls a few years ago he would get a glove, now going thru easily.

I don't think the steal rate is something to harp on. Guys shift 10% commonly. Fielding though . . . he has a pretty bell curve on RZR:

04 .789

05 .847

06 .887

07 .840

08 .795

RZR is surely not the ultimate fielding statisitic, but that curve does indeed jive with typically 2B aging patterns in terms of fielding efficiency. Range also seems to follow the common age pattern, too.

[ChaosLex]

LOL. Looks like a couple of the Brew Crew aren't too happy about Weeks going on the DL.

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=mlb&id=mil&tid=2946431&lid=5

[blueberryale77]

LOL. Looks like a couple of the Brew Crew aren't too happy about Weeks going on the DL.

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=mlb&id=mil&tid=2946431&lid=5

One thing is for sure, Weeks could use a fresh start somewhere. He has been quite disappointing but the venom the Brewers fans spew towards him is over the top.

[PoorMike]

LOL. Looks like a couple of the Brew Crew aren't too happy about Weeks going on the DL.

http://boards.espn.go.com/boards/mb/mb?sport=mlb&id=mil&tid=2946431&lid=5

See, Davearm and other have made good points about Roberts being equal to Weeks when you factor in youth, service time, present production, etc.......but I'd have to think that a buyer who has a deadline and is trying to compete will need to be aggressive to acquire a piece they need.

Those fans on that board aren't making the decisions, but if that even comes close to conveying what MIL thinks about Weeks right now, there's NFW that's a 1-1 swap.

[Stotle]

I understand that Cabrera is not established yet, however, I feel - as many here on OH do - that he has turned the proverbial corner. If that's the case (and AM feels that way) he should not accept a subpar deal in season. Wait until the end of the season unless you get what you feel is an acceptable deal for DCab.

As far as Roberts goes, if his value is down and he's going to get less of a deal than what he could've got from the Cubs then, as far as I'm concerned, we should keep him. He's just too valuable to the Orioles as a player and in the community. The Brewers are going to have to make a good offer to get him. And that offer has to include more than just Richie Weeks.

Yeah, I think he's figured some stuff out to. In a negotiation, though, you are only as good as the best counter argument to your point. I don't think BAL has tons of leverage when it comes to D-Cab. I'm all for waiting until the end of the season if it nets you a bigger package (which it likely would, provided D-Cab continues to pitch well). Ditto Roberts.

For what it's worth I think too much attention is being paid to Weeks's numbers and not enough to his tool set. Again, take a look at Roberts at the same age. Weeks is something like $7mio cheaper starting next year and is under control through 2011.