Brian Roberts trade rumors back on!

[PoorMike]

I think what you have to consider are age curves. 2B is a position that beats you up and you see an eariler degradation of ability than other less physical positions (i.e. 1B). It is rare to find a 2B after age 33 that is average. That being said Rickie Weeks is 25. He has already shown to give league average offense at 2B with below league average defense. His hitting is actually much more advanced than Roberts at this stage. Given the possibility that Weeks won't be much and that Roberts will continue his physical decline . . . you could argue that they have similar worth. Roberts has more current worth, but Weeks has more long term worth.

Good points.

I say, they should keep him then. I realize that BR is a late bloomer, and that RW might be ahead of him on that track......but I couldn't see AM making that deal as it doesn't really help the organization that much.

If you want to be a buyer, be aggressive.

[davearm]

Davearm,

I just can't see how Weeks = BR....in anyone's eyes. Just because he has less serivce time? Can we trade DCab for Teixaira (not that we'd want to)? DCab is having a good year and has less service time...and a #2 starter is worth more than MT's production at 1B.

You're getting the player you want for the next year and a half while the guy coming back might have good seasons in those last two years (or he might not). Weeks is not a prospect but at the same time, you'd have to hope he got better in order to make the trade even, in which case it's not an even trade right now.

Mike there are just a lot of moving parts here:

age/distance +/- prime years

service time/time to free agency

salary

talent/upside

current offensive production

current defensive production

You could probably lump a few others in there as well.

Some of these factors favor Roberts, some favor Weeks: the "today" factors favor Roberts, the "tomorrow" factors favor Weeks. Taking all factors together, the case can be made for either guy, depending on how you weight each one's importance (and granted, you'd have to value things like age and salary awfully highly to get Weeks to come out ahead). Historically, anyway, the Brewers have indeed valued the "tomorrow" factors pretty highly.

Now whether that mindset has been altered meaningfully for 2008 remains to be seen, but I'm inclined to assume not until shown otherwise.

[Dipper9]

I just wanted to add that OH just hasn't been the same since the season started without a good, rip-roaring thread speculating on BRob being traded!!! NOW, things are back to the way they should be again. :smile11:

Now back to speculating on a trade of Brian...

I hear ya Moscow. Screw all this ra-ra O's are .500 2 months into the season crap. I want controversy damnit...controversy! :angryfire:

[SilentJames]

The question remains, has Weeks' four years in baseball been enough to gauge what he will become?

Have the Brewers given up on him too quickly? Or, is he curently showing what we could expect from him over the next 3-4 years?

[Sports Guy]

I think what you have to consider are age curves. 2B is a position that beats you up and you see an eariler degradation of ability than other less physical positions (i.e. 1B). It is rare to find a 2B after age 33 that is average. That being said Rickie Weeks is 25. He has already shown to give league average offense at 2B with below league average defense. His hitting is actually much more advanced than Roberts at this stage. Given the possibility that Weeks won't be much and that Roberts will continue his physical decline . . . you could argue that they have similar worth. Roberts has more current worth, but Weeks has more long term worth.

Long term Weeks should be worth more.

But right now, his value is very low....I think Weeks and Escobar for BRob is a fair deal.

Gamel or Laporta and PERHAPS a mid level prospect for Sherrill and then you have the makings of a 2 for 4 deal that makes a lot of sense for each side IF the Brewers are trying to win right now. That is the key...Are they content with keeping what they have and being patient or do they want to win right now?

In the offseason, they can deal Fielder and recoup what they will lose in this deal and then move LaPorta or Gamel to first and lose virtually nothing....Meanwhile, they have given themselves a much greater chance to win both now and in the next few years.

[crawdad]

Long term Weeks should be worth more.

But right now, his value is very low....I think Weeks and Escobar for BRob is a fair deal.

Gamel or Laporta and PERHAPS a mid level prospect for Sherrill and then you have the makings of a 2 for 4 deal that makes a lot of sense for each side IF the Brewers are trying to win right now. That is the key...Are they content with keeping what they have and being patient or do they want to win right now?

In the offseason, they can deal Fielder and recoup what they will lose in this deal and then move LaPorta or Gamel to first and lose virtually nothing....Meanwhile, they have given themselves a much greater chance to win both now and in the next few years.

I thought you said that Sherrill and Roberts were worth 3-4 top prospects each? Now that is 3-4 for both of them together? Why the decrease?

[blueberryale77]

Given the possibility that... Roberts will continue his physical decline . . .

What physical decline? How are so many people missing that the guy is among the AL leaders in doubles and triples (leading the league in triples), overall extra base hits, and stolen bases? He's second among AL second basemen in OPS, 67 points ahead of the third place guy (Jose Lopez). People seem to have decided they want Roberts gone so they are seeing what they want to see. It's really disappointing how quickly fans turn on good players based on really nothing more than some trade rumor or sound bite about "blowing it up." The Orioles won't be the same without Brian Roberts, and if they do go to the playoffs sometime during the remainder of his career and he's not here, the victory will be less sweet because of it. He's been the best Oriole of the last decade and most of you can't wait to throw him away for whatever some hack sportswriter who hates the Orioles suggests we should take for him. I'm really disgusted to be an Oriole fan right now. :angryfire:

I didn't mean to single any one person out with this rant, it was the culmination of my frustration with a lot of things I've read on O's message boards since last December. The spontaneous sea-change in public opinion regarding Roberts has just been ridiculous.

[TyCobb]

The question remains, has Weeks' four years in baseball been enough to gauge what he will become?

Have the Brewers given up on him too quickly? Or, is he curently showing what we could expect from him over the next 3-4 years?

I would much rather have Weeks and I think the Brewers would much rather have Roberts. I hope AM can get a good deal for Roberts, Sherrill, Bradford, Walker, and Millar/Huff. They all need to get off this team. If I had to keep anyone of the bunch it would be Sherrill.

[Sports Guy]

I thought you said that Sherrill and Roberts were worth 3-4 top prospects each? Now that is 3-4 for both of them together? Why the decrease?

I didn't say there were 3-4 top prospects EACH...I said the 2 of them were worth 3-4 top prospects(sorry if you took that as each..not what I meant).

[crawdad]

I didn't say there were 3-4 top prospects EACH...I said the 2 of them were worth 3-4 top prospects(sorry if you took that as each..not what I meant).

Ok, thanks for clearing that up for me.

I guess we just differ on opinion. I think they are worth 2 top guys (but not top 15 BA guys) and 1-2 mid-level guys.

[notfast]

I'd love to see us work out something with the Brewers. Lapotra and Gamel are both top prospects.

We could clean out their prospects (much like the M's) with something like Roberts, Walker/bradford/sherril, and a SP.

[Sports Guy]

http://rotoworld.com/content/Headlines.aspx?sport=MLB

Interesting...Weeks go to the DL with a knee injury.

[notfast]

I like talking trade rumors, but one thing that does bother me is when things get completely unrealistic.

There is NO WAY the O's get Matt LaPorta. He is their best prospect, and one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He's also one of the safer bets to be playing and playing well in the big leagues sometime in 2009. Acquiring LaPorta would take a player the caliber Bedard-pre-2008, and we don't have one.

As much as I like Weeks' potential, he scares me a little bit. He has yet to play a full season in the bigs and doesn't hit for nearly enough power to justify all the strikeouts. He's also only hit above .239 once (.279 in 2006). And the defensive struggles could be a bigger sticking point than we think. Remember that MacPhail is trying to remake the organization into one focused on pitching and defense. Opinions on Weeks' glove may not be all that accurate though. By most accounts he has improved a lot over the last couple of seasons, and his FLDG%, error totals and range factors have been solid/average for 2007 & 2008. His injury history is the biggest sticking point for me. It's likely a major reason why his bat hasn't developed, so if he can get healthy his bat could take off. Or the injuries could be taking an irreversible toll on his body and he may never be the player scouts envisioned.

The player that I would insist be involved is SS Alcides Escobar. Most scouts think he could play SS in the bigs now, it's only a matter of his bat developing. Well, at the age of 21, he's hitting .337/.374/.457 in Double-A thru 62 games. He's finally maturing and gaining some strength and it's showing in his offensive numbers. His offensive development drastically increases his chances of being an everyday player in the bigs. His defense is definitely good enough. A lot of people on the OH were fawning over Carlos Triunfel in the Bedard rumors, so why not Escobar. IMO, he's the better prospect - better defense, will stay at short, and now he's showing more offensive value (not just an empty AVG).

I'd be happy to take on the risk of Rickie Weeks if we could also grab Alcides Escobar. The problem is, I'd be surprised if the Brewers would do that for just BRob. That would show that they are very desperate, and I don't see any evidence that they feel that way. BRob and a bullpen arm might be enticing though. Their bullpen isn't exactly a strong suit either, and if they do make a deal like this it would be to win this year and maybe the next 2-3 years. It would help with the Orioles potential future bullpen headache, too (roster crunch/too many bodies).

EDIT/DISCLAIMER:

If you can't tell from my post, I don't really like the idea of trading for Rickie Weeks, but the proposed deal includes him because the Brewers might insist on him being included, and he does have upside, even if I don't like him.

This is a great post. I also think that Gamel would be hard to pry away at this point either. He's been NUTS this year....

[ChaosLex]

http://rotoworld.com/content/Headlines.aspx?sport=MLB

Interesting...Weeks go to the DL with a knee injury.

What's your take, SG? Something "fishy" going on?

Where there's smoke, there's fire.

[cindyluvsbrady]

This coming per elismlbrumors.com, which is a very creditable source.

"The Brian Roberts talks are back and Ken Rosenthal suggests a move to the Brewers for Rickie Weeks would be good. It would give the Brewers the leadoff man they need, and it would give the Orioles a young, hard hitting second baseman."

Personally im not that high on Weeks. He hasnt got better through his first 4 years in the majors, however, he is only 26.

.210 avg. 7 hr and 20 rbi

I would do a deal with the brewers if they included a package of someone like LaPorta(maybe unlikely to get him, but worth trying), Tyler Green, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Jeremy Jeffress.

I would love to get Weeks, LaPorta/Escobar, and Mat Gamel and I would be all over this deal. This would be a way better package then anything the cubs would offer.

Thoughts? Ideas?

Trading My Perfect One is a BIG NO!!!!!!!