The 2016 rotation

[Frobby]

Gausman 179.2 IP (30 starts), 3.61 ERA

Tillman 172.0 IP (30 starts), 3.77 ERA

Jimenez 132.0 IP (25 starts), 5.18 ERA

Gallardo 118.0 IP (23 starts), 5.42 ERA

Wilson 73.0 IP (13 starts), 5.67 ERA

Bundy 71.2 IP (14 starts), 4.52 ERA

Wright 63.2 IP (12 starts), 6.22 ERA

Miley 54.0 IP (11 starts), 6.17 ERA

Worley 22.0 IP (4 starts), 4.50 ERA

 

That rotation was enough to win 89 games in 2016.    Is it really so far-fetched that we could put together a rotation that could do better than that in 2018?    For sure, we need Bundy and Gausman to step up and be roughly the equivalent of what Gausman and Tillman were in 2016.    It really shouldn’t be such a tall order to outperform 5.24 IP/start, 5.41 ERA in the 3-5 spots.  C’mon DD, get to work!

 

[wildcard]

Matching the O's 2016  3-5 starter ERA will not do it for the O's in 2018.  New York and Boston both have better rotations than they had in 2016.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, wildcard said:

Matching the O's 2016  3-5 starter ERA will not do it for the O's in 2018.  New York and Boston both have better rotations than they had in 2016.

You can't assume that.

Most people expected Tillman to have a better record than he did, thing happen.

A couple of ailments, and all of the sudden, you are the dodgers and none of your 5 SP are healthy and pitching.

 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

You can't assume that.

Most people expected Tillman to have a better record than he did, thing happen.

A couple of ailments, and all of the sudden, you are the dodgers and none of your 5 SP are healthy and pitching.

 

Well you could be right  if things break the O's way but its a long shot

Yankees: Gray. Severino, Montgomery are all young  Tanaka and Sabathia (if resigned) could break down.

Red Sox:  Sale, Price, Porcello are Cy Young winners. Pomeranz had a heck of a season but has had a inconsistent career.  EdRod is still growing.  Has not had his big season yet. But he will only be 25 next year.

You have to squint a lot to see the O's coming up with rotations to match them.

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Well you could be right  if thing break the O's way but its a long shot

Yankees: Gray. Severino, Montgomery are all young  Tanaka and Sabathia (if resigned) could break down.

Red Sox:  Sale, Price, Porcello are Cy Young winners. Pomeranz had a heck of a season but has had a inconsistent career.  EdRod is still growing.  Has not had his big season yet. But he will only be 25 next year.

You have to squint a lot to see the O's coming up with rotations to match them.

 

Price has a lot of wear and tear in him, one of the reasons I felt 31 million per year was risky.

Nothing says EdRod will have a big season, he isn;t a TOR and is a middle of the rotation guy, I dont expect to see Cy Young stats out of him.

At this point in the season, its all paper anyway.

[Yardball85]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well you could be right  if things break the O's way but its a long shot

Yankees: Gray. Severino, Montgomery are all young  Tanaka and Sabathia (if resigned) could break down.

Red Sox:  Sale, Price, Porcello are Cy Young winners. Pomeranz had a heck of a season but has had a inconsistent career.  EdRod is still growing.  Has not had his big season yet. But he will only be 25 next year.

You have to squint a lot to see the O's coming up with rotations to match them.

 

Porcello had one great year but otherwise, has been pretty average throughout his career.  His Cy Young season is sandwiched by ERAs of 4.65 (2017) and 4.92 (2015).  Better chance IMO you see Porcello with a mid-4s ERA than in Cy Young form.

[Spy Fox]

After 2016, I was optimistic about another playoff run in 2017 because I figured it would be near impossible to get an even worse performance out of the back half of the rotation. Oops. 

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

After 2016, I was optimistic about another playoff run in 2017 because I figured it would be near impossible to get an even worse performance out of the back half of the rotation. Oops. 

At the end of the day, there is still better to be optimistic, then negative. IMO.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Well you could be right  if things break the O's way but its a long shot

Yankees: Gray. Severino, Montgomery are all young  Tanaka and Sabathia (if resigned) could break down.

Red Sox:  Sale, Price, Porcello are Cy Young winners. Pomeranz had a heck of a season but has had a inconsistent career.  EdRod is still growing.  Has not had his big season yet. But he will only be 25 next year.

You have to squint a lot to see the O's coming up with rotations to match them.

 

Nobody’s saying they will.   But the issue is whether they can win as many games or more than in 2016.   I believe they should be able to construct a pitching staff that can do that.    Now we’ll see if they do it.    

[wildbillhiccup]

40 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

At the end of the day, there is still better to be optimistic, then negative. IMO.

There's a difference between optimism and realism. 

[billw76]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Gausman 179.2 IP (30 starts), 3.61 ERA

Tillman 172.0 IP (30 starts), 3.77 ERA

Jimenez 132.0 IP (25 starts), 5.18 ERA

Gallardo 118.0 IP (23 starts), 5.42 ERA

Wilson 73.0 IP (13 starts), 5.67 ERA

Bundy 71.2 IP (14 starts), 4.52 ERA

Wright 63.2 IP (12 starts), 6.22 ERA

Miley 54.0 IP (11 starts), 6.17 ERA

Worley 22.0 IP (4 starts), 4.50 ERA

 

That rotation was enough to win 89 games in 2016.    Is it really so far-fetched that we could put together a rotation that could do better than that in 2018?    For sure, we need Bundy and Gausman to step up and be roughly the equivalent of what Gausman and Tillman were in 2016.    It really shouldn’t be such a tall order to outperform 5.24 IP/start, 5.41 ERA in the 3-5 spots.  C’mon DD, get to work!

 

I don't think it's too far fetched to put together a rotation better than 16, and even easier to be better than 17.

IMO the problem is we will need to sign at least 2 guys out of Chatwood, Cobb and Lynn, then probably someone like Vargas, Cashner, etc just to have 5 starters and hopefully not have to rely on guys like Wright and Castro.

Besides adding starters the bullpen will need to return to 16 form if we have any hope of winning anywhere close to 89 games, and guys like Trumbo and Davis will have to be a lot better offensively.

[El Gordo]

We need Bundy and Gausman to combine for 35 QS and the 3 and 4 SP to combine for 30. The # 5 options should combine for 10 QS. With  strong bullpen that should give us about 90 W's.

[esmd]

Of course it CAN be done.  The question is, do the Orioles have the WILL to do it?  If they're really going to let Machado and Britton walk as free agents after this year, then the only thing to do is to go all-in and sign two higher end pitchers, like Cobb and someone else similar in quality.  It it was me, Arrieta or Darvish wouldn't be out of the question.  Again, ALL-IN, all the chips on the table.

But more likely, they'll dip their toes in the pool, scream that it's too cold, and go half-arsed by re-signing Tillman, putting someone like Wright into the rotation, and hope and pray.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There's a difference between optimism and realism. 

Yes, and the difference between pessimism and realism is just as great.

[MDtransplant757]

Bundy's ERA should go down this coming year. We just need to find someone as consistant as Tillman was in 2016.