It's beginning to look a lot like... 1998

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Dan doesn’t get enough credit for putting together a decent rotation out of thin air in 2012 as well as putting together an excellent bullpen.     But he did inherit a nice young core and was fortunate to be around as those players were maturing.    And Manny turbocharged the whole team.

 

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hold on just a second.

In November of 2011 Dan took over a last place O's team the was 69-93.

Starters

Guthrie 9-17, 4.33 ERA (Dan traded him over the winter)

Britton 11-11, 4.61 ERA ( Who never made it as a starter)

Arrieta 10-8, 5,05 ERA ( We all know that story)

Simon 2-5, 8.77 as a starter

Tillman 3-5, 5.52 ( He had just failed for the 3rd time as a starter)

Bergesen 2-7, 578 as a starter

Matusz  1-9, 10-69 as a starter

Hunter  3-3, 5.00 as a starter

1B Davis 708 OPS (Lee went FA). 

2B Andino 570 OPS

ss Hardy 801OPS

3B Reynolds 806 OPS (Machado was in A Ball)

C Wieters 778 PS

RF Markakis 758 OPS

CF Jones 785 OPS

LF Reimold 781 OPS

DH Guerrero 733 went FA

I don't know if you can say the Dan will have a worst team in 2018 then the one he took over in 2011.

 

 

Oh, and it seems to me that Jim Johnson was pretty important too.  Also inherited. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Seems to me that Tillman, Britton, Hardy, Jones, Wieters, the drafted Machado, the drafted Schoop were pretty important parts of the winning seasons beginning in 2012.  And Dan inherited all those guys.  Dan will likely walk away after 2018, so it is the state of the team from 2019 on that he will be compared to what he inherited.  Whoever takes over in 2019 will walk into a worse situation at the major league level and on the farm system than the one Dan inherited, imho. 

The farm is in pretty good shape, despite not having any top 10 picks since the one Dan inherited from Andy (used to pick Gausman).   Andy had a no. 3 (Manny), two no. 4’s (Matusz and Bundy), and two no. 5’s (he inherited Wieters, and then Hobgood).

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The farm is in pretty good shape, despite not having any top 10 picks since the one Dan inherited from Andy (used to pick Gausman).   Andy had a no. 3 (Manny), two no. 4’s (Matusz and Bundy), and two no. 5’s (he inherited Wieters, and then Hobgood).

I’ve argued that that’s the best part of the DD regime is that the drafting has been really solid outside the year they didn’t pick until the third round.

[ChuckS]

5 hours ago, ScGO's said:

The start of our fall from grace, 14 straight years.

In 98, we still had our bats, but just like 2017, our starters crapped the bed after Erickson and Mussina. Then our key assets walked (Moose, Raffy, Alomar) as we watched Brady, Cal, and BJ age for a few seasons before anyone realized the farm had gone barren.  By then, anything resembling a capable GM had been run out of town, and the O's were at the mercy of Syd, and you all know the rest.

I believe Dan is a capable baseball man, but I wonder if he is hand cuffed at times by directives from above. Our winning ways got away from us quickly after 98 and I see similarities in the current team. Many key pieces will be leaving in the upcoming years. We failed to retain the correct assets or invest in the correct ones.  I just don't understand Angelos' business model; I don't believe Dan does at times either. But to me, he takes his job seriously, evident by how active he is in the market. I believe he is doing the best he can with what he has been given and some his moves have been brilliant.  

However, I believe he walks after the season. The way he talks to the media reminds me of someone who is disgruntled but plays it safe to cover his butt and get by and appease the boss. It took him a long time to get back into baseball, and he had to settle for the Orioles and their owner's directives. He has done well and now he is hoping he can find another Toronto-like offer.

Hopefully, whoever we get next is the start of a string of former players and who-are-these-guys types.

I made a post to this effect several months ago and got hardly a response. 

I completely agree and maybe you put it better in terms than I did. Our fire sale in 2000 was two years too late and we ended up with practically nothing (fell into Melvin Mora who was an unheralded 27 year old rookie at the time).  

I think 2018 is our 1999 except for in 1999 we actually had some decent SP options.  This will be our last year to get some return.  2019 will be our 2000 and all our valuable goods will be gone or expired. 

We'll see what the front office does this season, but if those players we had dealt in 2000 were dealt in 1998 or 1999 we may have not ended up with 14 straight years of losing records.  Now we still had Syd Thrift (arguably the most out of touch GM in the game at the time) as our GM, but we still would have seen a much better return had the fire sale been a year or two sooner. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

There is one key difference, the Orioles have been decent at developing position players since Manny came up.  Even if Manny, Adam Jones, etc. leave after 2018, the Orioles won't be in a complete dire situation.  Bundy and Gausman will be Orioles in 2019.

The problem is and always has been, the Orioles need to figure out how to grow the arms.  

[weams]

7 hours ago, tntoriole said:

 

Oh, and it seems to me that Jim Johnson was pretty important too.  Also inherited. 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/22/gms-and-rebuilding-time/

 

It's a good read.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, weams said:

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/22/gms-and-rebuilding-time/

 

It's a good read.

It is a good article, thanks.  To read it, you would think Andy Macphail deserves zero credit for any of the resurgence.  His name is not mentioned anywhere in the discussion.  I do not think the Orioles improvement in 2012 through 2014 is completely and totally due to Dan as the author does. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

It is a good article, thanks.  To read it, you would think Andy Macphail deserves zero credit for any of the resurgence.  His name is not mentioned anywhere in the discussion.  I do not think the Orioles improvement in 2012 through 2014 is completely and totally due to Dan as the author does. 

I have been vocal in saying that both desire credit.

Andy got Angelos to be less meddling and micromanaging.

Andy got Angelos to invest into Sarasota, which was drastically needed and the Orioles were pretty much the laughingstock of ST. Which they no longer are.

Andy started the team on the rebuilding path.

Obviously DD gets lots of credit for the moves after Andy, and DD will be the first to tell you and has said, that Andy does deserve credit for getting the ship uprighted.

[Ohfan67]

Although I am nervous like everyone else about the Orioles future, I do not think the organization is facing a "1998 situation". I think the farm system is in much better shape than it was in 1998 and the baseball people are way better than the Syd Thrift regime. I suspect even Brady is significantly better than over-the-hill, conspiratorial Syd and company. Also, 2003, 2004, 2005, etc. were not really the result of decisions made it 1997 or 1998. They were the long-term product of a very dysfunctional organization including poor talent evaluation and investments made by Beattie and Flanagan (e.g., remember the $40,000,000 bullpen). The Orioles may not be the greatest example of functionality in baseball, but Angelos has hired better baseball people and given them more flexibility in putting the teams together, hiring and firing minor league related personnel, etc., than the past (based on what fans know). Although the Davis contract is terrible and the Trumbo contract is very bad, the Orioles still have significant payroll flexibility moving forward. I'm not a happy camper right now, but I don't think the Orioles future is an abyss. 

[weams]

I am a huge Andy Macphail fan. He could not have won in Baltimore. 

[weams]

Also. Andy MacPhail is the reason Peter Angelo will not pay millions to 16 year old Dominicans. 

[Redskins Rick]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Although I am nervous like everyone else about the Orioles future, I do not think the organization is facing a "1998 situation". I think the farm system is in much better shape than it was in 1998 and the baseball people are way better than the Syd Thrift regime. I suspect even Brady is significantly better than over-the-hill, conspiratorial Syd and company. Also, 2003, 2004, 2005, etc. were not really the result of decisions made it 1997 or 1998. They were the long-term product of a very dysfunctional organization including poor talent evaluation and investments made by Beattie and Flanagan (e.g., remember the $40,000,000 bullpen). The Orioles may not be the greatest example of functionality in baseball, but Angelos has hired better baseball people and given them more flexibility in putting the teams together, hiring and firing minor league related personnel, etc., than the past (based on what fans know). Although the Davis contract is terrible and the Trumbo contract is very bad, the Orioles still have significant payroll flexibility moving forward. I'm not a happy camper right now, but I don't think the Orioles future is an abyss. 

I think most of us have concerns, but I try to stay optimistic since ST hasnt started yet and I have also seen previous off-seasons when doom and gloom was all around, and the season turned out pretty good.

But, that doesn't stop the haters and the trolls from flinging their stuff.

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, weams said:

Also. Andy MacPhail is the reason Peter Angelo will not pay millions to 16 year old Dominicans. 

Did he do it before Andy?

[twinedenter]

14 hours ago, tntoriole said:

 

Could not agree more. Payroll and win/loss record to me, tell the story. The O's high payroll and poor win/loss record say that the right pieces are not being acquired. Duquette has swung and missed far too often, especially with the higher priced players. I don't believe for a second that Angelos tells Dan "Oh I want Jimenez". Dan picked them, they are bad, blame goes where it should, on Duquette.

With this core, to be 4 games over .500 the last 3 years, is a shame.

 

[twinedenter]

12 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

I’ve argued that that’s the best part of the DD regime is that the drafting has been really solid outside the year they didn’t pick until the third round.

I would disagree to some extent. Duquette has been running the show for 6 years now. We are FINALLY seeing a player or 2 from the minor leagues that he drafted. I would certainly NOT call his drafting "really solid". The jury is still out on Gausman and the young guys coming. Don't get me wrong, I like Sisco, Hays, and Mancini and have high hopes for them, but after 6 years, I would say It's about time.