Who from our farm would net Manny?

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

This article explains it a bit.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

Here is a chart I use (from the link above), you can disregard the WAR numbers for relievers or in general if you don't like WAR.

The Overall Player Grade

	Hitter	Starting Pitcher	Relief Pitcher	WAR
80	Top 1-2	#1 Starter	—-	7.0
75	Top 2-3	#1	—-	6.0
70	Top 5	#1/2	—-	5.0
65	All-Star	#2/3	—-	4.0
60	Plus	#3	High Closer	3.0
55	Above Avg	#3/4	Mid Closer	2.5
50	Avg Regular	#4	Low CL/High SU	2.0
45	Platoon/Util	#5	Low Setup	1.5
40	Bench	Swing/Spot SP	Middle RP	1.0
35	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	0.0
30	*Organizational	*Organizational	*Organizational	-1.0

So my FV (future value) is the median outcome for a player.  The center of that player's bell curve of outcomes.

Each full grade difference (10 points on the above scale is equal to a standard deviation).

So if I picked the FV correctly, a 50 FV position player has a 68.2% chance at being somewhere between a bench bat and a plus regular.  He would also have a 15.8% chance of not really being a big leaguer and a 15.8% chance of being an all-star or better.

Thank you very much.  That is great information!!  

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Thank you very much.  That is great information!!  

This is just how I see it, you'll see other people do it differently, I like the bell curve model, I think it fits pretty well except I think the chances of being a top 5 player in baseball or above probably drop off a little quicker than the bell curve describes. 

It's also important to remember that since I'm using FV to combine the players floor, ceiling, and likelihood of reaching each, not all FV 40s are the same.  For example Gabiel Ynoa is a FV 40, and is at least an up and down guy (35), but probably not more than a #4 starter (45) as a ceiling.  Lamar Sparks is also a FV 40, but he's got 65 upside and the possibility of not making the high minors.  But all things considered, they have the same median outcome.

Edit: the bell curve is far from perfect in the statistical sense because player outcomes don't always follow a normal distribution but I think it makes sense as a visual.

[El Gordo]

16 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Mike Wright, Miguel Castro, Hunter Harvey, Jose Reyes, Ryan Mountcastle.      lol.  

Wright is not ML ready probably never will be. Don't need both Montcastle and Reyes.

[jabba72]

Any package would start with Hayes and probably Cisco. The two highest rated on the Orioles. Probably have to throw in Moundcastle or Sedlock as well. A team might think highly of Tanner Scott. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Any package would start with Hayes and probably Cisco. The two highest rated on the Orioles. Probably have to throw in Moundcastle or Sedlock as well. A team might think highly of Tanner Scott. 

Can we spell our future O's names correctly, not trying to be a jerk, but the names are thrown around all the time and not hard to spell.

It's Hays, Sisco, and Mountcastle.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Can we spell our future O's names correctly, not trying to be a jerk, but the names are thrown around all the time and not hard to spell.

It's Hays, Sisco, and Mountcastle.  

He may as well misspell the names, since that trade package is unrealistic.  Hays is a top 25 prospect, Sisco is top 75, and Mountcastle is fringe top 100.    You aren’t getting that for a year of Manny.    

[jabba72]

Just now, Frobby said:

He may as well misspell the names, since that trade package is unrealistic.  Hays is a top 25 prospect, Sisco is top 75, and Mountcastle is fringe top 100.    You aren’t getting that for a year of Manny.    

Maybe not, but I can see teams having questions about Mountcastle and Sisco's positional future.  Neither is a sure thing to stick at their position and if Sisco doesn't, its possible his bat wont play anywhere else. Hays is solid, but just not proven enough to be a 1-1 trade for a future $300M player in a walk year. 

11 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

Can we spell our future O's names correctly, not trying to be a jerk, but the names are thrown around all the time and not hard to spell.

It's Hays, Sisco, and Mountcastle.  

Yeah I hadnt checked their names on any official site in awhile. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Harvey is too risky to be the headliner.  Opinions are very mixed on Wells, some scouts/analysts don't think much of him at all.  Reyes is an appropriate third piece. 

Since the real top 100 lists aren't out yet, I'll speculate on where you could classify the O's prospects.

Hays is going to be Top 50 on most lists.

Sisco, Mountcastle, Harvey, and maybe DL Hall are all in the Top 100 conversation.

Mullins, Stewart, Scott, Akin are all in the Top 200 conversation.  I think Wells should be there too, but I think the national community isn't as high on him.

You would get Gausman. Sisco. And Harvey. 

[bird watcher]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He may as well misspell the names, since that trade package is unrealistic.  Hays is a top 25 prospect, Sisco is top 75, and Mountcastle is fringe top 100.    You aren’t getting that for a year of Manny.    

 

6 minutes ago, weams said:

You would get Gausman. Sisco. And Harvey. 

Firstly, It looks like you two value Manny differently.  

 

Secondly,  I think El Gordo would keel over after a Hays, Sisco, Mountcastle trade since there would be no pitching.  

Frobby, would you take that trade despite no pitching coming back?  I think we need at least one high upside pitcher (minor Leaguer) but maybe that is foolish if we can get more value from position players.  

 

 

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, bird watcher said:

 

Firstly, It looks like you two value Manny differently.  

 

Secondly,  I think El Gordo would keel over after a Hays, Sisco, Mountcastle trade since there would be no pitching.  

Frobby, would you take that trade despite no pitching coming back?  I think we need at least one high upside pitcher (minor Leaguer) but maybe that is foolish if we can get more value from position players.  

 

 

 

I was really looking at the trade in terms of prospect value, not in terms of batter vs. pitcher or what position.   We simply don’t have a pitcher in our system as highly rated as those three, though if Harvey proves he’s healthy, he’d be almost as valuable as Hays and more valuable than the other two.   I do think whatever trade we actually do is likely to be headlined by a pitcher, precisely because we already have a Hays, a Sisco and a Mountcastle.    But if there were a Hays-level middle infielder coming back as the headliner, I might have to bite if there was still a decent pitching prospect in the mix.   

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Have to include one of Bundy/Gausman.

For 1 year of Manny--not happening.

[OriolesMagic83]

I could see the O's trading one of Mountcastle/Sisco, Harvey, and Scott.  Hays would not be offered on the trade.  Maybe add someone like Lowther (sp?) or Reyes. 

[bird watcher]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was really looking at the trade in terms of prospect value, not in terms of batter vs. pitcher or what position.   We simply don’t have a pitcher in our system as highly rated as those three, though if Harvey proves he’s healthy, he’d be almost as valuable as Hays and more valuable than the other two.   I do think whatever trade we actually do is likely to be headlined by a pitcher, precisely because we already have a Hays, a Sisco and a Mountcastle.    But if there were a Hays-level middle infielder coming back as the headliner, I might have to bite if there was still a decent pitching prospect in the mix.   

That makes sense.  I agree on Harvey too. I can see him really taking off if healthy. 

I might be willing to take an outfielder as a headliner if he is Hays+ was though. It would then allow us to package an outfielder or two in another deal. I’d also look to move Jones if he is open to a trade to a contender given our rebuild in his final year. 

[El Gordo]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

He may as well misspell the names, since that trade package is unrealistic.  Hays is a top 25 prospect, Sisco is top 75, and Mountcastle is fringe top 100.    You aren’t getting that for a year of Manny.    

Why would you trade Manny for a C, and an OF. A 3B makes sense.

[El Gordo]

4 hours ago, weams said:

You would get Gausman. Sisco. And Harvey. 

 

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

For 1 year of Manny--not happening.

The reason we are even considering trading Manny is because we want to contend and need SP. If we can't get SP, then the only reason to trade Manny is if you are rebuilding. Don't know if you got the memo but the O's are not rebuilding