What if the O's did not need starting pitching for Manny?

[tntoriole]

Signing Vargas and Cashner as the "going for it in 2018" move makes me nauseous.  Or maybe it is the eggnog!  

[tntoriole]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Signing Vargas and Cashner as the "going for it in 2018" move makes me nauseous.  Or maybe it is the eggnog!  

Plus I still don't think they will even go there once they see really what their market price is....I will stick with Miggy Gonzalez, Tillman and one of the Rule 5 guys or Castro as where we land come spring training.   

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Signing Vargas and Cashner as the "going for it in 2018" move makes me nauseous.  Or maybe it is the eggnog!  

Its more like "going for the 2nd wildcard spot"  and hoping for better.

[mdbdotcom]

Can't we convert Givens, O'Day, Bleier and Castro into starters? I heard that's easy.

[El Gordo]

21 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Plus I still don't think they will even go there once they see really what their market price is....I will stick with Miggy Gonzalez, Tillman and one of the Rule 5 guys or Castro as where we land come spring training.   

All indications are the market prices will be down. We could get a bargain. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Those moves might get us over .500 but they still leave us with a bad rotation and other weaknesses (Davis/Trumbo, poor OF defense), and a bunch of guys ready to walk at the end of the season. I would much prefer a rebuild/retool scenario. Standing pat with some value veteran SP's seems like the worst of both worlds, not enough to make us truly competitive short term, while wasting the opportunity to improve long term. Yet this is probably exactly the path they will take, with Miguel being another possibility.

I see the OF defense getting better if Hays is a regular.  I expect Davis and Trumbo to be better in 2017 than they were in 2016.  If they begin the year if Manny they probably will not trade him because they will be in it at the deadline.....If they can get Vargas and Cashner or equal.  

[Luke-OH]

18 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Signing Vargas and Cashner as the "going for it in 2018" move makes me nauseous. 

Yeah, I hate it. 

The problem is if they keep Manny, they pretty much have to try and compete for it to make sense.  The question is how and especially how and not mortgage the future for a long shot.  If they trade Manny and give up on 2018 (they won't admit that, but that's really what it means), then all they need is an innings eater preferably on a 1 year deal and then hope that 2 of the Cortes, Mesa Jr, Ynoa, Wright, Castro?, Kelly, and Hess group can hold their own.

[tntoriole]

10 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

All indications are the market prices will be down. We could get a bargain. 

Oh we will get a bargain alright.   Compared to what actual pitchers cost, that is.   

[Luke-OH]

The problem with Vargas, Cashner, etc is that the Orioles as currently constructed within payroll constraints need assets, not just performance.

To explain, the team signs Cashner and Vargas for 3/36 each, even if they live up to that deal, there is little upside there and they are paying about 1/6th of their payroll to two mediocre pitchers. 

Let's say you don't sign either of those guys, and you give the rule 5 guys, Ynoa, and/or other unproven pitcher every shot to stick in the rotation.  If one of those players can put up a league average season, now they have a great asset that they'll pay the league minimum in 2018 and 2019 and have 5-6 years of control.  Cheap assets are the key to any rebuild. If two unproven pitchers show something, all of a sudden you are looking at a 2019 team that could compete with a couple free agent acquistions (with a huge free agent class and an extra 24m free to sign them with thanks to not signing aging mediocre pitchers).

 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

The problem with Vargas, Cashner, etc is that the Orioles as currently constructed within payroll constraints need assets, not just performance.

To explain, the team signs Cashner and Vargas for 3/36 each, even if they live up to that deal, there is little upside there and they are paying about 1/6th of their payroll to two mediocre pitchers. 

Let's say you don't sign either of those guys, and you give the rule 5 guys, Ynoa, and/or other unproven pitcher every shot to stick in the rotation.  If one of those players can put up a league average season, now they have a great asset that they'll pay the league minimum in 2018 and 2019 and have 5-6 years of control.  Cheap assets are the key to any rebuild. If two unproven pitchers show something, all of a sudden you are looking at a 2019 team that could compete with a couple free agent acquistions (with a huge free agent class and an extra 24m free to sign them with thanks to not signing aging mediocre pitchers).

 

I am not worried about having too many pitchers in the future.   Cashner, Vargas, Harvey, Akin, Castro and Cortes on 2019 just means the O's may be able to trade Vargas or Cashner in 2019 or 2020.

As far as going with two rookies in the rotation I would not do that to begin the year.  Last year Dan had Aquino, Ynoa, Lee, Wright, Wilson Verrett, Kipper, Wheeler, Asher and Edwin Jackson.  Any one of them could have made a push for Tillman spot in the rotation.  None of them did.     

Having the 5th spot with the possibility of Castro or Cortes is enough unproven starters for me.   In fact if the O's get Vargas and Cashner I would hope they can also sign Tillman to a low base with incentives.    Most of these guys are not going to start 32 games so there is a need for unproven starters to fill in during the season anyway.

[Luke-OH]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not worried about having too many pitchers in the future.   Cashner, Vargas, Harvey, Akin, Castro and Cortes on 2019 just means the O's may be able to trade Vargas or Cashner in 2019 or 2020.

As far as going with two rookies in the rotation I would not do that to begin the year.  Last year Dan had Aquino, Ynoa, Lee, Wright, Wilson Verrett, Kipper, Wheeler, Asher and Edwin Jackson.  Any one of them could have made a push for Tillman spot in the rotation.  None of them did.     

Having the 5th spot with the possibility of Castro or Cortes is enough unproven starters for me.   In fact if the O's get Vargas and Cashner I would hope they can also sign Tillman to a low base with incentives.    Most of these guys are not going to start 32 games so there is a need for unproven starters to fill in during the season anyway.

 You mean trade prospects to dump their salary?

So Ynoa having a 4.15 ERA in the majors and a 3.78 FIP in AAA wasn't pushing for Tillman's spot? Asher pitched much better than Tillman as well, Wright was hurt. Wilson and Aquino were ok in AAA and both would probably have been an upgrade over 2017 Tillman.  The corpse of Edwin Jackson, while terrible was better than Tillman.  The dangers of the veteran pitcher making million of dollars is they don't get pulled from the rotation even when they suck.  Guys like Kipper, Wheeler, Verrett, and Lee (I guess some people liked Lee but a one pitch guy with below average command didn't look like a starter to me) were never really options.

 

[El Gordo]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Oh we will get a bargain alright.   Compared to what actual pitchers cost, that is.   

Cobb, Lynn, Jake, Yu, wont be getting what they are asking.

[OriolesMagic83]

12 hours ago, wildcard said:

What if the O's aggressive  signed Vargas and Cashner to fill out the rotation with Bundy, Gausman and Castro/Cortes.   With Harvey and  Akin coming in 2019,  then the O's could listen to the best  deal for Manny.   It would change with he O's would need from 2 starters to position players and pitching probably including a 3B.

Its will probably take 2/24 to get Vargas and 2/28 with a vesting option on a third year to get Cashner.   The O's have the money to do this if they have 40m to spend.  This would cost 26m in 2018.   

What do you think?

That "aggressive" word is so scary.  How about a nice soothing word like percolate?

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

 You mean trade prospects to dump their salary?

So Ynoa having a 4.15 ERA in the majors and a 3.78 FIP in AAA wasn't pushing for Tillman's spot? Asher pitched much better than Tillman as well, Wright was hurt. Wilson and Aquino were ok in AAA and both would probably have been an upgrade over 2017 Tillman.  The corpse of Edwin Jackson, while terrible was better than Tillman.  The dangers of the veteran pitcher making million of dollars is they don't get pulled from the rotation even when they suck.  Guys like Kipper, Wheeler, Verrett, and Lee (I guess some people liked Lee but a one pitch guy with below average command didn't look like a starter to me) were never really options.

 

No Ynoa did not push Tillman.   He was terrible for the first 4 months at AAA and then he has a good August.  But he O's did not trust him because he has been bad for 4 month.  So he gets a call up in Sept.   The rosters expand.  So he co-exist with Tillman.   He does not push him.  He got decent too late in the season to push Tillman..

Wilson and  Aquino were inconsistent messes.  Both has ERA over 7.00 in the majors and both and WHIPs over 1.40 at AAA.   That is not how a pitcher replaces and veteran. 

Jackson got three relief appearance with the O's and had an ERA over 7.00 and WHIP on 3.00.   That inspired no-one.

Dan tried and failed to put starting depth in place.  He did find two relievers in Bleier and Castro.   

 

 

[Frobby]

I agree with wildcard.    Tillman did not earn the right to keep his starting job, but the guys at AAA weren’t exactly banging down the door.     Ynoa came on towards the end and I hope that carries over to 2018.