What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[Frobby]

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

I really don't know, I saw slider bat speed and a decay of footspeed, which are both terrible signs.  I'm hopeful there was an injury or lack of conditioning that could improve, but I'm not holding my breath.  It looks bad, he didn't get particularly unlucky with balls in play or fly balls turning into HRs.  I would think there might be some regression towards career means like the projection systems predict, but it could also be an aging cliff he's in the process of falling off.

[wildcard]

His 3 year averages are 532 AB, 88R, 37HR, 87RBI, 233/334/481/815.

I think he can achieve that.  Health is a big deal for him.  If he stays relatively healthy I think he has a good year.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

I really don't know, I saw slider bat speed and a decay of footspeed, which are both terrible signs.  I'm hopeful there was an injury or lack of conditioning that could improve, but I'm not holding my breath.  It looks bad, he didn't get particularly unlucky with balls in play or fly balls turning into HRs.  I would think there might be some regression towards career means like the projection systems predict, but it could also be an aging cliff he's in the process of falling off.

I share these concerns.  Davis did have that oblique injury that kept him out of the lineup from June 13 - July 13, so I’m hoping that may explain some of what we saw, but frankly, I’m not counting on it.

[webbrick2010]

He's toast

He would be DFA'ed if not for the contract

He will be DFA'ed before his contract expires

[oriole]

I fear the worst when it comes to Davis. His SO% just seems to get worse and worse every year. I hope for the sake of the outrageous contract he got that we can see one more productive year. I'll put in a projection of my own against my better judgement that he will end the season north of .800 OPS. I like to think it could happen even if I don't believe it.

[joelala]

I could see a bounce back for sure.  It seems crazy to think that he has physically declined as drastically as his stats would indicate.  One look at the guy you can tell he's still in very good physical condition.  I'm hoping it was an injury, and definitely believe a lot of his struggles were mental.  Also mechanical.  But I'm not neccesarily buying the physical deterioration of his absurd athleticism at 31 years old.   So if he can fix his approach, I'm hoping for an improvement.

 

[24fps]

Many of his AB's last season left me wondering if he was having trouble seeing the ball - to a significant degree.  If that's the case, then it's hard to be optimistic.

[SteveA]

15 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Many of his AB's last season left me wondering if he was having trouble seeing the ball - to a significant degree.  If that's the case, then it's hard to be optimistic.

Actually I am HOPING that at least part of his problems are vision related because that is something that can be corrected.

I'm not optimistic, but that's the hope.  When so many fat middle pitches went by without so much as a twitch, there can really only be three explanations;

1) vision

2) psychological/confidence related

3) he KNOWS that he is incapable of catching up to pitches that he used to be able to plaster, so he keeps the bat on his shoulder

If it's all #3, we are doomed.

If #1 and #2 are significant factors, at least there is hope for correction.

[jabba72]

25 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Many of his AB's last season left me wondering if he was having trouble seeing the ball - to a significant degree.  If that's the case, then it's hard to be optimistic.

Thought the same thing. Either that or he was guessing wrong quite a bit. He never had elite bat speed even if the statcast suggest his swing has slowed down. But I haven't checked those numbers. 

[mdbdotcom]

Bat him 9th to reduce the number of rallies he kills. 

He seems to be lost out there, like he's in lalaland. Could he need a medication adjustment? 

[clapdiddy]

It just seems like he fell of the cliff last season.  He just looked so lost at the plate last season, it's hard to tell if it was an aberration, holding back due to injury, or that he's completely lost his ability.

I'm hopeful that he's able to come back.   As a .240 hitter with the ability to draw walks, he's reasonably valuable.  I truly wish he would just focus on hitting the ball the other way.  

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

I think its reasonable for a bit of improvement.

I wonder if that darn oblique was never healed up and was reasonable?

 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

It just seems like he fell of the cliff last season.  He just looked so lost at the plate last season, it's hard to tell if it was an aberration, holding back due to injury, or that he's completely lost his ability.

I'm hopeful that he's able to come back.   As a .240 hitter with the ability to draw walks, he's reasonably valuable.  I truly wish he would just focus on hitting the ball the other way.  

His 2 best seasons at the plate, 2013 and 2015, happen to also be the two seasons he pulled the ball the most.

[LA2]

I think we've bad-lucked into a hitter's version of Steve Blass or Rick Ankiel.