Does Adam Jones Want to Stay Here Past 2018?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea all that winning culture sure worked for them last year.

Wasn't Millar signed for his winning culture-ness, back in the day?

 

4 hours ago, theocean said:

Did 2012-2016 get erased from your memory? What about the most wins in the American League over a five year period? What about 1998-2011? This team has one bad year and everyone is acting like the sky has fallen.

It's almost insulting to compare Millar running around going "Heee haw, cowboy up!" to what Jones brings to the team.

I don’t like to assign the winning from 2012-16 to anyone one player’s leadership.   Jones was on the team from 2008-11 and 2017 when we had losing records, too.   If you look at the everyday lineup in 2011 when we were 69-93 and 2012 when we were 93-69, both teams had Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Hardy, and Reynolds.    The team didn’t get better because Jones suddenly became a better leader, IMO.   It did help that Adam began his peak years in 2012, and a lot of others started hitting their stride, plus we got a few pitchers, the bullpen got way better, Manny and later Schoop joined the team, etc., etc.   

As to Millar, he played on some terrible teams here.    They weren’t bad due to his leadership or lack thereof.   They lacked talent.    

[wildbillhiccup]

I’m really going to miss AJ when he leaves via free agency. He’s been a breathe of fresh air.

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https://twitter.com/simplyaj10/status/965328535475781632

 

[El Gordo]

6 hours ago, pdiddy said:

 

What's up with the Millar hate?  His first two years here were good...811 and 785 OPS at age 34 and 35 seasons for about $3M each.

Plus a little leadership and good at bats almost every time up.

If Millar did nothing else he gave us that classic Orioles Magic video. Boy I'd love to see that again.

[TonySoprano]

https://www.mlb.com/video/bal-players-sing-oriole-song/c-2711367

[El Gordo]

1 minute ago, TonySoprano said:

 

Thanks. I needed that.

[Chavez Ravine]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I really wish people wouldn’t throw the “clubhouse cancer” label around so easily.    It should be reserved for guys who are proven, repeated trouble in the clubhouse. To suggest that of Jones is ludicrous.     

Malignant gambino:

 

[DirtyBird]

32 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

 I think the Padres make a ton of sense for Adam...theyre going to get good...soon...and its his hometown...

They are?

[MikeAD]

10 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

They are?

The Padres are one of 2 teams worse off than the Orioles today alongside Miami.  Maybe Tampa is on the list for this season only.  The Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball but even if it all pans out they have to compete in the NL West.  Awfully uphill climb out there but it would be great if Jones could be a part of them winning.    

[wildbillhiccup]

11 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

Manny and Jones in a different time would've been lifetime Orioles. But it IS a different time.The players earn the hammer and they can and should use it...but it makes me sad to see it. I think the Padres make a ton of sense for Adam...theyre going to get good...soon...and its his hometown...

Hometown team makes sense, but I don't think he's going earn that ring playing for San Diego. They're one of those teams that even when they make a splash it's a bad one. 

[wildbillhiccup]

13 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

The Padres are one of 2 teams worse off than the Orioles today alongside Miami.  Maybe Tampa is on the list for this season only.  The Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball but even if it all pans out they have to compete in the NL West.  Awfully uphill climb out there but it would be great if Jones could be a part of them winning.    

...but I could see him signing with another west coast team. San Fran or the Angels maybe. 

[DirtyBird]

31 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

The Padres are one of 2 teams worse off than the Orioles today alongside Miami.  Maybe Tampa is on the list for this season only.  The Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball but even if it all pans out they have to compete in the NL West.  Awfully uphill climb out there but it would be great if Jones could be a part of them winning.    

Yeah, they have a bunch of top 100 prospect, none of which have even excelled at the AA level yet. If they do all pan out, it would be when Jones is about 35 years old. How much of a contributor will a 35 year old Jones be, for any team?

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Hometown team makes sense, but I don't think he's going earn that ring playing for San Diego. They're one of those teams that even when they make a splash it's a bad one. 

With ex-Fangraphs guru Dave Cameron now in their front office, it will be interesting to see if their decision-making looks any different.    They were already well down the road with Hosmer before Cameron was hired, so I’m not going to pin this one on him.   

[O's are Legends]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

With ex-Fangraphs guru Dave Cameron now in their front office, it will be interesting to see if their decision-making looks any different.    They were already well down the road with Hosmer before Cameron was hired, so I’m not going to pin this one on him.   

One thing is for sure, he definitely had nothing to do with that contract.

2018 Free Agent Landmines

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None of this makes Hosmer a bad player. Steamer projects him for +2.7 WAR in 2018, and you can round that up to +3 pretty easily if you think that UZR is low on his fielding abilities. He’s an above-average big leaguer in the prime of his career, coming off the best season of his career, so Hosmer should get a nice contract this winter.

But a nice contract for this kind of skillset would be $80 or $90 million. I guessed that he’s actually going to get $125 million. Jon Heyman projected $160 million. At those kinds of prices, Hosmer could very easily become one of the most overpaid players in baseball, especially if he continues to just pound balls into the ground.

There’s enough youth and upside here that a team can rationally justify $20 million a year for four years, but once they pass either of those marks, they’d very likely be better off just signing one of the cheaper first baseman and throwing the difference at another quality free agent. Especially if the price gets up to $150 million; for that kind of money, you might be able to sign both Carlos Santana and Lorenzo Cain, and it’s not clear that Hosmer is definitively better than either one of those two, much less both of them.

He had Cashner at 5

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Unless you think Cashner can sustain a .213 BABIP with men on base and a .171 BABIP with runners in scoring position — he can’t, by the way — he’s just going to give up a lot more runs even with weaker contact. In this day and age, a 12% strikeout rate just doesn’t cut it, especially for a guy who has a worse-than-average walk rate.

Ten years ago, Cashner would have turned his 3.40 ERA into a nice contract, but the league has stopped paying for ERA like it used to, and Cashner’s lack of strikeouts is going to keep interest somewhat contained. Even still, any multi-year commitment could look quite silly by mid-season if hitters keep making contact at the rate they did against Cashner last year. And there’s not even the floor of a guy who eats innings, since Cashner has a long history of health problems. At anything more than one year, I’d expect Cashner to be a disappointment for his signing club.

 

[BarclaySouthway]

The O's made a smart deal with Jones, locking him up for his ages 27-32 seasons--which is for most players the prime of their prime.  

They shouldn't screw it up now by  overpaying for the "coast on reputation" years.

Offer a 3 year, home town discount deal and tell him he's moving to right--maybe, but I don't imagine that will go over too well.  Jones cannot play center for a contender.  I wonder if he realizes that.  Given his age, what appears to be the start of a decline, and his propensity to disappear in the post-season, I wonder what contender would think he's worth it.

[weams]