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By Three Run Homer · Posted
The only argument for keeping Walltimore is that we have two excellent center fielders on our roster (Mullins and Cowser), so we are better positioned than our opponents to defend a huge left field. We shouldn't need Walltimore to attract pitchers anymore. We're a winning team now. -
By Just Regular · Posted
Adjacent to this, I hadn't looked up Carter Stewart in a while, but I see that he has a 1.95 ERA in 120 innings for a team dominating the Japan Pacific League. He's the kid born the same month as Grayson Rodriguez who was also a high 1st round high school arm. Boras and Atlanta couldn't agree, and Stewart has since spent the age 19-24 seasons of his career over there. He turns 25 next month. I don't know all the nuances but have heard at times age 25 has some meaning with respect to a Japanese league club's control over a player that might be interested in MLB. -
Agree on the experienced slugger for DH/1B. Let Mayo take his lumps at 1B while having the safety net of a FA bat to potentially offset any productivity. maybe even keep O’Hearn as a platoon with Mayo. This almost makes too much sense that I can be sure it won’t happen. -
By Three Run Homer · Posted
I think Japanese pitchers are a much better investment than free agent MLB pitchers. You are getting them earlier in their career and I think they have better mechanics and training habits and are therefore more durable. Sasaki may not be posted this year, but there will be others available. -
By Three Run Homer · Posted
They choked in the playoffs and they choked with RISP all season. It sucks, no doubt about it. Everyone is pissed off and rightly so. That doesn't mean that they are fated to choke until the end of time. Clutch performance is not a skill. Hitting and pitching are skills. There is no reason to think that Gunnar Henderson will always suck in the postseason, or that Colton Cowser will always suck with the bases loaded. I do think that Hyde should be fired, because he doesn't know how to manage the players he has. He changes pitchers too often. He kept batting Cowser fourth even though he is obviously not a good clutch hitter at this point in his career. He kept batting Adley 5th even though he was a below-replacement level hitter for months. Mullins and Urias were two of his best hitters in the second half and they were at the bottom of the order. -
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The more complicated answer to the above goes back to the original point that @interloper raised, about the hand being a factor in causing Adley to swing at bad pitches. I think Adley was swinging at these pitches all year. And I don’t think it’s at all clear that swinging at bad pitches was the key issue in Adley’s second half struggles. I can’t split those Baseball Savant zone “take/swing” breakdowns into half seasons, so the best I can do is use Fangraphs to try to zero in a little bit on when the more free-swinging Adley we saw this year really came about. Using their plate discipline rates, the answer is a bit interesting: Adley (2022): 40.5% swing rate; 22.8% out of zone swing rate; 15.6% whiff rate Adley (2023): 41.0% swing rate; 24.5% out of zone swing rate; 13.9% whiff rate Adley (4/1 - 6/30): 45.2% swing rate; 31.7% out of zone swing rate; 17.9% whiff rate Adley (7/1 - 9/30): 43.6% swing rate; 28.1% out of zone swing rate; 12.4% whiff rate The upshot is that 1st half Adley was an absolutely massive departure from the player he’d been previously. He was pretty consistent between 2022-2023, pretty similar across the board. But this season, he came out swinging far more than he ever had. That included swinging at a lot more balls and a lot more swings-and-miss. He actually swung more than both Gunnar and Colton, which is sort of wild if you’ve ever tried to spot Adley on a swing rate leaderboard (hint: scroll to the bottom). By contrast, it looks like 2nd half Adley was actively attempting to get back to his roots. The swing rate is back closer to his previous norms — and if you break it down more closely, he was swinging less and less each month as the second half went on. There was an obvious effort to put the bat on the ball, as his second half contact rate was basically 95th percentile. So really, the part of the season where Adley sucked out loud was actually the part where his swing decisions were more like his old self. The “new” Adley that was swinging more, chasing more, striking out more, walking less? That guy was actually the most productive version we’ve ever had, with a 135 wRC+. More power and a higher batting average than he’d ever done, and very nearly to a career high in HRs by the ASB.
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