Money for Matusz?

[hoosiers]

There was some question about what it might take for Matusz to sign. Below is a small analysis with some reference points.

Background

Brian Matusz was the fourth overall selection and the first pitcher taken. Many draft trackers had Matusz going fourth to the Os. Matusz was projected as a "safe" pick - a pitcher with the ceiling of a 1/2, but one with a strong likelihood of being at worst a 3 and a pitcher who could reach the majors quickly. While a consensus early pick, few considered Matusz a super-elite talent like either Upton, Wieters or last year's Price from previous drafts. So, it's unlikely that Matusz is holding out for the big bucks that the first pitchers selected in the last two drafts received as the first overall picks.

(BTW, the numbers below are per Baseball America.)

Comps

The first pitcher selected in the 2007 draft was David Price. He was also the first overall selection and considered an elite pitching talent of a level above Matusz, IMO. Price signed for $5.6M as part of an $8.5M package.

The first pitcher selected in 2006 was Luke Hochevar. Hochevar worked out a deal as the first overall pick after slipping in the 2005 draft. Hochevar received a $3.5M bonus as part of a $5.25M guarantee.

Another comparison is the second overall pick and the second pitcher taken in 2006 - Greg Reynolds by Colorado. He signed for $3.25M.

Another 2006 comparison is Brad Lincoln. Like Matusz, Lincoln was selected fourth overall (the third pitcher) and signed for a $2.75M bonus.

Daniel Moskos was drafted fourth overall last year - the second pitcher behind Price. Moskos was considered a bit of a reach with this pick, but he signed for slot at $2.475M. I believe I've read somewhere that 2008 slot is not known but rumored to be 10% higher than in 2007.

The final comp I believe may be relevant is the amount received by last year's third overall pick, Vitters. Vitters signed for $3.2M, above slot of $2.7M.

I think those are the most relevant comps.

Ranges

I believe the lower range where Matusz could sign is around $2.7M. That amount is around what Lincoln received in 2006, was slot for the third selection last year and is similar to last year's fourth overall selection's bonus plus a 10% bump.

IMO, the upper range is below $3.2M. This amount is what the third selection last year (Vitters) actually signed for and near what Reynolds received in 2006 as the second overall selection. It's a generous upper range for the fourth selection in this draft.

I do not believe Matusz is worthy of the $ received by Price or Hochevar as top selections and think it would be shocking if Matusz received north of $3.5M. Still, these deals get shaped different ways which makes it very difficult to compare a signing bonus to a MLB guarantee and may negate a lot of this analysis. Final factors include how important it is for the Os to stick to slot and how important it is for Matusz to reach a milestone amount like $3M or $3.5M.

Conclusion

IMO, the range above, $2.7M to $3.2M, is pretty narrow, but too generous on the high side to be split down the middle.

I will go with $2.85M - an amount close to the following:

- in between what Vitters and the over-drafted Moskos received last year

- a bit above last year's slot for fourth overall plus 10%

- slightly above what Lincoln received in 2006 as the fourth overall selection.

IMO, these ranges are well-defined and it would be surprising if the Os and Matusz were far apart. I expect he should sign soon. We'll see about the amount.

[Anonymous]

That's some great analysis, hoosiers. It takes a lot of the mystery away and gives cause for optimism.

[Mackus]

I could see Matusz settling for less up front money but an MLB contract. I don't think that would necessarily be a terrible idea.

[McNulty]

Don't forget that he can go back to school if he doesn't get what he wants. Not that I think he will, but the option is there for him.

[Mackus]

Don't forget that he can go back to school if he doesn't get what he wants. Not that I think he will, but the option is there for him.

Almost everybody who gets drafted has this option. Unless the O's really screw around with him, he's gonna sign.

[McNulty]

Almost everybody who gets drafted has this option. Unless the O's really screw around with him, he's gonna sign.

I know, but I just wanted to throw it out there.

[Anonymous]

I could see Matusz settling for less up front money but an MLB contract. I don't think that would necessarily be a terrible idea.

I don't disagree with you too often, Mackus. But you sure threw out a doozy this time.

If it wasn't obvious before the Loewen situation, it should be clear by now that this is not a good way to operate. Just offer the kid a fair contract (or even a slightly more than fair one) and save ourselves the early clock starting, the 40-man clutter, and the premature expenditure of options. We have great expectations that he'll move quickly through the system. But it's not unprecedented for even a highly promising pitcher to be set back by injuries for a few years longer than expected.

[Mackus]

I don't disagree with you too often, Mackus. But you sure threw out a doozy this time.

If it wasn't obvious before the Loewen situation, it should be clear by now that this is not a good way to operate. Just offer the kid a fair contract (or even a slightly more than fair one) and save ourselves the early clock starting, the 40-man clutter, and the premature expenditure of options. We have great expectations that he'll move quickly through the system. But it's not unprecedented for even a highly promising pitcher to be set back by injuries for a few years longer than expected.

He and Loewen couldn't be more different. Loewen was essentially a HS pick. Matusz was the most polished college arm in the draft.

Matusz would get 4 option years. So he could be optioned in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If he is a risk for getting sent down in 2012, then he's a bust, its just that simple. He'd be 25 in 2012. He's a very well-developed prospect, so he's gonna move quickly.

If it saves money and possibly frees up extra cash to ink someone like Brady, I'm fine with giving Matusz a MLB-contract. I'm quite certain he'll be asking for one, and it wouldn't be a mistake to give it to him.

[Frobby]

hoosiers' numbers make sense, and since the range is fairly narrow, I really hope they can get this done in time to let Matusz get some work in at Frederick before the year is over. I'd rather not have him wasting a half-season at Frederick next year like Wieters and Arrieta have done this season.

[Mackus]

hoosiers' numbers make sense, and since the range is fairly narrow, I really hope they can get this done in time to let Matusz get some work in at Frederick before the year is over. I'd rather not have him wasting a half-season at Frederick next year like Wieters and Arrieta have done this season.

Yeah I agree with all of this. Hoosiers numbers appear dead on if Matusz goes with a minor league deal and straight signing bonus.

It'd also be great if Matusz signs quickly and gets some time in Frederick this year then starts at Bowie next season.

However, I wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't sign until August and takes an MLB deal and doesn't pitch at all this season. Disappointed, but not surprised. Might not be a terrible plan to shut him down either, he pitched 105 innings at USD this year so we probably wouldn't want him throwing more than 50 or so even if he signs very quickly.

[Frobby]

Yeah I agree with all of this. Hoosiers numbers appear dead on if Matusz goes with a minor league deal and straight signing bonus.

It'd also be great if Matusz signs quickly and gets some time in Frederick this year then starts at Bowie next season.

However, I wouldn't be suprised if he doesn't sign until August and takes an MLB deal and doesn't pitch at all this season. Disappointed, but not surprised. Might not be a terrible plan to shut him down either, he pitched 105 innings at USD this year so we probably wouldn't want him throwing more than 50 or so even if he signs very quickly.

I agree we wouldn't want to overwork him. I just would like to see him get to Frederick eventually and see enough of him there that the team can make a good assessment of whether he can skip that level net year. It's worth noting that both Olson and Bascom pitched a bit at Frederick the year they were drafted, but the team sent them back there the next year anyway; and Arrieta was dominant in relief in the AFL last winter, but got sent to Frederick anyway. Obviously, Matusz is more highly regarded than any of those were, but the track record suggests that Matusz is going to have to do a lot to convince the O's brass to start him at Bowie next year.

[Cokeman]

He and Loewen couldn't be more different. Loewen was essentially a HS pick. Matusz was the most polished college arm in the draft.

Matusz would get 4 option years. So he could be optioned in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If he is a risk for getting sent down in 2012, then he's a bust, its just that simple. He'd be 25 in 2012. He's a very well-developed prospect, so he's gonna move quickly.

If it saves money and possibly frees up extra cash to ink someone like Brady, I'm fine with giving Matusz a MLB-contract. I'm quite certain he'll be asking for one, and it wouldn't be a mistake to give it to him.

My question about signing Matusz to a MLB contract and placing him on the 40-man roster is...do we need that spot on the 40-man to protect someone this off-season from the Rule 5 draft?

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that this could be a potential problem this year. I know there are still trades and DFA's that can affect the 40-man before then, but couldn't that be somewhat of a concern?

[LookinUp]

My question about signing Matusz to a MLB contract and placing him on the 40-man roster is...do we need that spot on the 40-man to protect someone this off-season from the Rule 5 draft?

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that this could be a potential problem this year. I know there are still trades and DFA's that can affect the 40-man before then, but couldn't that be somewhat of a concern?

This is a good point. We actually have some flexibility on the 40-man roster today but that will have to change with several guys next year (IIRC).

[Mackus]

My question about signing Matusz to a MLB contract and placing him on the 40-man roster is...do we need that spot on the 40-man to protect someone this off-season from the Rule 5 draft?

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that this could be a potential problem this year. I know there are still trades and DFA's that can affect the 40-man before then, but couldn't that be somewhat of a concern?

That's definitely a good point, 40-man roster space might be tight this offseason. So that would be an incentive towards giving Matusz a minor league deal. I'm sure the team would prefer a minor league deal, but I can definitely envision Matusz insisting on an MLB deal.

[Crazysilver03]

My question about signing Matusz to a MLB contract and placing him on the 40-man roster is...do we need that spot on the 40-man to protect someone this off-season from the Rule 5 draft?

I thought I remembered reading somewhere that this could be a potential problem this year. I know there are still trades and DFA's that can affect the 40-man before then, but couldn't that be somewhat of a concern?

Costanzo, Reimold, Spoone, Hernandez, and Bergesen are five guys that need to be protected this offseason.

We jettison Millar and Payton as free agents. Eider Torres and Fredy Deza surely get jettisoned. Then between Freddie Bynum, Oscar Salazar, Brandon Fahey, Scott Moore, and Jim Hoey can be removed if need be.

There is plenty of room to move off pieces that arent contributing.