MLB Trade rumors on Orioles overhual .

[SteveA]

33 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Why do they have to be pathetic for years to come? Why?

They have a fairly high draft pick this year and next year it will be even higher. If the Angelos sons start investing Internationally why does this have to take forever?

International signings = 16 and 17 year olds who will not make an impact for at least 5 years in all but the most extreme cases.

We need to start doing it, no doubt.   But it won't pay dividends at the major league level until 2023 or later, maybe a couple years earlier if we use prospects as chips in deals for major leaguers.

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

International signings = 16 and 17 year olds who will not make an impact for at least 5 years in all but the most extreme cases.

We need to start doing it, no doubt.   But it won't pay dividends at the major league level until 2023 or later, maybe a couple years earlier if we use prospects as chips in deals for major leaguers.

It has to start somewhere. You are correct those players will not pay immediate dividends but if they hit on some high draft picks they can impact quickly. 

[utvolzac]

28 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, you look at his career seasons and tell me which one is the big outlier.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml

 

Absolutely, anyone who thinks Trumbo has any value is kidding themselves. Coming off his career year, he had little to no interest in free agency, we essentially bid against ourselves.

Even with 47 HRs, he couldn’t even crack 2 WAR because he’s awful at literally every other aspect of the game.

[sportsfan8703]

28 minutes ago, SteveA said:

International signings = 16 and 17 year olds who will not make an impact for at least 5 years in all but the most extreme cases.

We need to start doing it, no doubt.   But it won't pay dividends at the major league level until 2023 or later, maybe a couple years earlier if we use prospects as chips in deals for major leaguers.

I don’t think we can ever have a cubs/Astros rebuild because we will never spend on the international market.  So all the stars would have to align for us to be good. 

Hell, maybe we should just try and retool and pray our young OFs are beasts.

[Moose Milligan]

41 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If nothing changes at the top then I agree. What hope I have is that significant changes will be made. If not it will be more of the same. 

I don’t get the suck at drafting argument. Once again they have been winning. Most of the difference makers in the sport come from the top of the first round. They haven’t been picking there. The people running the draft today aren’t the same ones running it during the 14 years of losing. 

I will grant you that the MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot of them all, by far.  Yes, you are right, the difference makers in the sport come from the top of the first round.  

That said, Cody Sedlock looks absolutely terrible.  I know he was picked later in the first round but my goodness.  I'd be curious to see if anyone picked near him is as awful as he is.   It's too early to tell anything about DL Hall.

Mountcastle looks like an OBP less free swinger with a lot of questions about where he can play in the field.  DJ Stewart is a fringe prospect.    

Josh Hart?

Then we had Gausman, Bundy and Machado so it's not all bad.  I still agree, most of the difference makers are in the top of the first round, but let's also not pretend that value can't be found elsewhere.  

Anyone can tell me that the Orioles somehow are better at drafting these days.  I will continue to point to farm system rankings in response.

[Camden_yardbird]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think we can ever have a cubs/Astros rebuild because we will never spend on the international market.  So all the stars would have to align for us to be good. 

Hell, maybe we should just try and retool and pray our young OFs are beasts.

What is unsaid about both of those turn arounds and why I think it's laughable that it's held up is that both those teams spent huge right before their success.  The difference between the Cubs and the Pirates coming out of 2015/16 is $200 million is free agent spending.  Both had superb internal talent.

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I will grant you that the MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot of them all, by far.  Yes, you are right, the difference makers in the sport come from the top of the first round.  

That said, Cody Sedlock looks absolutely terrible.  I know he was picked later in the first round but my goodness.  I'd be curious to see if anyone picked near him is as awful as he is.   It's too early to tell anything about DL Hall.

Mountcastle looks like an OBP less free swinger with a lot of questions about where he can play in the field.  DJ Stewart is a fringe prospect.    

Josh Hart?

Then we had Gausman, Bundy and Machado so it's not all bad.  I still agree, most of the difference makers are in the top of the first round, but let's also not pretend that value can't be found elsewhere.  

Anyone can tell me that the Orioles somehow are better at drafting these days.  I will continue to point to farm system rankings in response.

All teams miss on players. The Yankees basically went two decades with Brett Gardner and little else.

I just don’t know how anyone can expect any team to be high in the rankings when for a period of time 

- you have been winning 

-no International talent 

-no trades of major leaguers for MiL talent 

-trade picks/young talent for MLB help 

I mean if someone can pull that off it is pretty impressive. All the major avenues of young talent acquisition have either not been available or utilized for one reason or another. 

[spiritof66]

If the Orioles are committed to turning things around --- a big if -- one of the things they will need to do is make a substantial financial commitment in Latin America. I'm not talking about just participating in the international free agent draft, but devoting millions of dollars -- I don't have a clue how many millions -- on personnel and facilities that will enable the Orioles to start catching up with other teams in infusing the MiL system, and eventually the Orioles, with talent.  Relying on other clubs' castoffs and excess talent will give you an occasional nugget, but that's not enough to compete.

An investment like that will not come without some pain.  It presumably will mean spending less on something else, like ML payroll or stadium upkeep or bobblehead promotion, and not getting any return at all for at least three or four years, maybe longer. The investment will make a bad team even worse for a couple of years, and may even slow down the return to being a .500 or better team. But I think it's a bullet that has to be bitten. 

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

All teams miss on players. The Yankees basically went two decades with Brett Gardner and little else.

I just don’t know how anyone can expect any team to be high in the rankings when for a period of time 

- you have been winning 

-no International talent 

-no trades of major leaguers for MiL talent 

-trade picks/young talent for MLB help 

I mean if someone can pull that off it is pretty impressive. All the major avenues of young talent acquisition have either not been available or utilized for one reason or another. 

As I said, I am going to point to the rankings of the farm system.  While we have been talking about drafting, drafting is the only thing they do.  And since they refuse to play in the international market and since they have refused to trade any of their ML players to bolster a pathetic farm system, drafting is all they have.

And since drafting is the only thing they have, they need to do it better than anyone else, no matter if they have the 1st overall pick or the 25th pick.  Doesn't matter.   I said it in another thread, they're fighting with one arm behind their back at all times.  And that's fine if they think they can scout, draft and develop better than anyone else no matter where they pick in the draft.

But they can't.   

You're not wrong, all teams miss on players.  But since the Orioles simply refuse to give themselves every opportunity to acquire young talent, they can't afford to miss.  

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

As I said, I am going to point to the rankings of the farm system.  While we have been talking about drafting, drafting is the only thing they do.  And since they refuse to play in the international market and since they have refused to trade any of their ML players to bolster a pathetic farm system, drafting is all they have.

And since drafting is the only thing they have, they need to do it better than anyone else, no matter if they have the 1st overall pick or the 25th pick.  Doesn't matter.   I said it in another thread, they're fighting with one arm behind their back at all times.  And that's fine if they think they can scout, draft and develop better than anyone else no matter where they pick in the draft.

But they can't.   

You're not wrong, all teams miss on players.  But since the Orioles simply refuse to give themselves every opportunity to acquire young talent, they can't afford to miss.  

I agree but no scouting system can overcome all of that. 

My point is the people who run their departments can only do so much. 

This can’t work.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

As I said, I am going to point to the rankings of the farm system.  While we have been talking about drafting, drafting is the only thing they do.  And since they refuse to play in the international market and since they have refused to trade any of their ML players to bolster a pathetic farm system, drafting is all they have.

And since drafting is the only thing they have, they need to do it better than anyone else, no matter if they have the 1st overall pick or the 25th pick.  Doesn't matter.   I said it in another thread, they're fighting with one arm behind their back at all times.  And that's fine if they think they can scout, draft and develop better than anyone else no matter where they pick in the draft.

But they can't.   

You're not wrong, all teams miss on players.  But since the Orioles simply refuse to give themselves every opportunity to acquire young talent, they can't afford to miss.  

I think I understand your position better now.

I can't say I agree with it.

Just because they can't draft strongly enough to carry the other deficiencies in the system doesn't mean they are doing a poor job.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I agree but no scouting system can overcome all of that. 

My point is the people who run their departments can only do so much. 

This can’t work.  

You're right.

Which is why the franchise sucks.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think I understand your position better now.

I can't say I agree with it.

Just because they can't draft strongly enough to carry the other deficiencies in the system doesn't mean they are doing a poor job.

Hey, I don't like it either but thats the position they have voluntarily put themselves in.

So if they're not going to trade their aging stars until they have practically no value and not play in international waters...better be damn good at drafting.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hey, I don't like it either but thats the position they have voluntarily put themselves in.

So if they're not going to trade their aging stars until they have practically no value and not play in international waters...better be damn good at drafting.  

To me the more correct thing is to say that the player development is doing a poor job overall.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me the more correct thing is to say that the player development is doing a poor job overall.

We can dice it any way you want.  Doesn't change the reality of the situation.