Is Adam Jones getting unlucky?

[Hallas]

So I haven't been able to watch as many games this year because of stuff happening (and less interest in rearranging my schedule for a terrible baseball team) so I'm not 100% sure if this matches up with  reality, but from my limited observation + looking at the stats, it seems as though Jones has been supremely unlucky this year.  He has improved in a very large number of categories relating to contact rate, contact quality, and pitch selection, but his results have been much worse.

• O-Swing: 44% -> 37% (His 2018 number would be his best since 2009.)
• O-contact: 65% -> 54% (worse than last year)
• Exit velocity: 86.6 -> 90.2 (would be his best since statcast started tracking.)
• Hard hit: 31% -> 38%
• xWOBA: .321 -> .357
• actual wOBA: .334 -> .300

I kind of assumed he was playing like crap, similar to the rest of the offense, but it seems like he's actually been doing a lot more right things with the bat, but has nothing to show for it.

[weams]

He's been outstanding the last week or so. 

[Hallas]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

He's been outstanding the last week or so. 

I saw yesterday's game, he definitely looked good.  His 2 outs were hit hard too.

[ChuckS]

He's certainly swinging at more balls than ever (3 walks in 157 at bats), but he looks like the same player. 

I expect him to be in the .750-.800 range by the end of the season.  Hopefully by the end of July so he has some trade value and gets to play for a contender. 

[Hallas]

26 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

He's certainly swinging at more balls than ever (3 walks in 157 at bats), but he looks like the same player. 

I expect him to be in the .750-.800 range by the end of the season.  Hopefully by the end of July so he has some trade value and gets to play for a contender. 

He is actually not swinging at more pitches.  His swing rate is 53.5%, compared to 58.5% last year.  That 53.5% would be his lowest rate since 2009.  That is on top of his improvement in O-Swing rate.

Basically, he’s improved at most plate-discipline peripheral stats but it’s not translating to more walks, but rather a career-low BB rate.

I am wondering if this is because pitchers are challenging him but not getting punished because of bad luck on BIP.

[InsideCoroner]

I agree offensively he’s had a lot of hard-luck outs. So did Mancini. The hits will come for both of them if they stay healthy. 

But the elephant in the room is more on the defensive side. Jones should (but won’t/can’t) go to RF. Mancini should (but won’t/can’t) go to DH. 

[Hallas]

47 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

I agree offensively he’s had a lot of hard-luck outs. So did Mancini. The hits will come for both of them if they stay healthy. 

But the elephant in the room is more on the defensive side. Jones should (but won’t/can’t) go to RF. Mancini should (but won’t/can’t) go to DH. 

I think Mancini is fine.  He passes the eye test and his UZR is positive.

Jones, on the other hand...

Of course, if he actually managed to get his wOBA at .353, he would be fine as a corner OF.

[Frobby]

I don’t think Jones has looked as bad as his stats appear.   He’ll probably get hot at some point.   

[weams]

Quote

The players union filed a grievance to Major League Baseball in February against the Rays, Athletics, Pirates and Marlins for failing to spend revenue sharing money in an attempt to field a competitive team. That sound you hear inside The Trop is a collective shrug.

I mention the Span trade in part because there’s been media speculation that the Mariners could pursue Adam Jones and bring him back to the organization that drafted him. They moved Dee Gordon to second base following Robinson Cano’s suspension. Span could at least platoon in center and eliminate the rumors.

Roch today.

[OFFNY]

o

 

Adam Jones arrived in the dark years, and remained through the franchise Renaissance (2012-2016.)

 

When I think of unlucky Orioles, I immediately think of Melvin Mora (2000-2009) and Brian Roberts (2001-2013) ........ although Roberts himself contributed towards his own bad luck by hitting himself in the head with a bat, and circumventing what may have been a borderline Hall-of-Fame career (or at least a 2,000-Plus Hit/500-Plus Double career.) Without that self-inflicted concussion (of which I don't believe that he ever fully recovered from), he likely would have played in both the 2012 and 2014 postseasons, and perhaps in the 2016 postseason Wildcard game also.

 

o

[NashLumber]

48 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Adam Jones arrived in the dark years, and remained through the franchise Renaissance (2012-2016.)

 

When I think of unlucky Orioles, I immediately think of Melvin Mora (2000-2009) and Brian Roberts (2001-2013) ........ although Roberts himself contributed towards his own bad luck by hitting himself in the head with a bat, and circumventing what may have been a borderline Hall-of-Fame career (or at least a 2,000-Plus Hit/500-Plus Double career.) Without that self-inflicted concussion (of which I don't believe that he ever fully recovered from), he likely would have played in both the 2012 and 2014 postseasons, and perhaps in the 2016 postseason Wildcard game also.

 

o

Sad icon needed here.