Straight talk: Buck is not coming back for a rebuild

[wildbillhiccup]

31 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Note that Duquette said "if we communicate effectively what we're trying to do, I'm sure [Oriole fans will] support the club." He seems to me to have chosen his words with some care.

Right now, it's a mystery as to how the Orioles see the balance that Duquette referred to between putting "more resources into winning now [and putting] more resources into winning later." Having read all the facts and speculation that have been floating around recently (and having my own half-baked ideas about what's going on and who is to blame for what), I wonder whether this is Duquette's way of (a) saying that it would serve the team's interests to make and implement a decision about what direction it's going in and tell its fans what that direction is, and (b) signaling that he's not able to tell the fans what the team's direction is, either because no direction has been decided on and communicated to him or because he's been told not to discuss that publicly..

So, Duquette is talking about the importance of being honest and transparent with the fan base about the team's overall strategy without being transparent about what that strategy is (and whether it has been or is being revisited because of the terrible start to the season. I find that odd, and wonder why else he would be doing that. Just his poor communications skills? Maybe.

Dan can't communicate what he doesn't know. 

[Just Regular]

Management has to be sorted out first.  If I got to be EVP, my brain dumps are:

Retool: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/31592-radical-realignment/&tab=comments#comment-2289253

Rebuild: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/31780-our-strasburg-harper-moment/&tab=comments#comment-2299274

 

For me it hinges on whether Dylan Bundy can be Mike Boddicker (a 3.5 WAR guy you can depend on half a decade), or if he's just biding time until 10 straight starts on regular rest break him.  Schoop, Gausman and Givens are the real swing assets between the two - I think today, each has approximately the same trade value as Machado, so we could quadruple our future value stuff if the Bundy-led nucleus is determined to be not enough to try for 88 wins with next year.

[24fps]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Dan can't communicate what he doesn't know. 

I suspect he's more than capable of figuring out what's been decided in meetings he hasn't been invited to.  It's more likely that any decision worthy of being communicated hasn't been made in the first place.  How many people in the organization have to be in agreement these days?   it'll be four o'clock before everybody decides where to order sandwiches for lunch.

[maybenxtyr]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

And he will probably not be back.

I agree.

[eddie83]

If Buck wants to keep managing he may have no choice but to stay here. 

The world has changed. Managers like Buck aren’t around much anymore, it is a GM’s game.  

[Ohfan67]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

My conspiracy theory: they could have a deal in place but don’t want to announce/formalize it until Duquette’s contract is up.    

I think if the O's already have an agreement with Buck, then it's to be the GM/VP,  not the manager. That's my conspiracy theory. 

[Just Regular]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

My conspiracy theory: they could have a deal in place but don’t want to announce/formalize it until Duquette’s contract is up.    

This idea had not occurred to me, but in keeping with it, Buck's precise quote about Santander's option in yesterday's Sun...

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-bs-orioles-20180513-story.html

...hit me kind of funny.

The precise bits for parsing...

“It’s a good level for him, Showalter said. “But if you look at Anthony’s experience, background, you can make a case for it. I just kind of asked, ‘Where do you want to send him? Bowie?’ That’s what I did

...what did Buck do?  Did he give an opinion to Duquette (or Brady)?  Is he just relating his thought pattern, and saying it was his decision?

If Buck is like Scioscia, and is quasi-GM too, I think I'm rooting for him to get out of the dugout for July so he can focus on the trade market.  Whether its only Manny for a re-tool, or Manny and other big pieces for a rebuild, focus shouldn't hurt.

[bobmc]

24 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If Buck wants to keep managing he may have no choice but to stay here. 

The world has changed. Managers like Buck aren’t around much anymore, it is a GM’s game.  

Your comment is on full view tonight with the Phils' current "field general".  Matt Klentak spoke profusely on why they all agreed on Kapler.  Plus notes on Jake, rebuilding, etc.

 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

I suspect he's more than capable of figuring out what's been decided in meetings he hasn't been invited to.  It's more likely that any decision worthy of being communicated hasn't been made in the first place.  How many people in the organization have to be in agreement these days?   it'll be four o'clock before everybody decides where to order sandwiches for lunch.

They don't eat sandwiches. Protein shakes / smoothies are the only think on the menu, thanks to Mr. Anderson. 

[weams]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t understand either theory.   And I don’t know what you mean by “the case.”

Just to review, the MASN deal states that:

1.   Rights fees will be re-set every five years.

2.   Rights fees will be paid equally to the two teams.

3.  Rights fees are to be set by negotiation; but if the parties can’t agree, the RSDC will decide using its “established methodology” for setting rights fees in other situations (which relates to how rights fees between a team and a captive network are calculated for revenue-sharing purposes).

4.   After rights fees are paid out, any remaining profits are split according to percentage of ownership of MASN.    The Nats’ share of MASN started at 10% and increases by 1% a year until it maxes out at 33%.

In the RSDC arbitration, the Orioles contended that the “established methodology” was something called the “Bortz formula” that in essence set rights fees at a level that would leave MASN with a 20% profit margin after the rights fees were paid.    The Nats contended that rights fees should be set by looking at comparable deals for other teams with unrelated networks, with no regard to MASN’s profitability.    They proposed a rights fee that would have caused MASN to operate at a loss.    Their proposal would, as you said, “break MASN.”

But, the RSDC did not adopt either side’s position.    Instead, it set rights fees at a level that would leave MASN with a 5% profit, using what the RSDC considered to be conservative projections (in other words, the profits could be higher than 5% if revenues were greater than the conservative forecast used by the RSDC).

So, as I see it, the RSDC decision (which was thrown out by a trial court and is now on appeal) didn’t break MASN, it merely made it less profitable than the Orioles wanted. And equal rights fees was always part of the deal, so I don’t see why that means that MASN can’t continue.

 

I am of the assumption that at somebody point the Nationals will get the fee structure they are asking for enforced by a court. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

I am of the assumption that at somebody point the Nationals will get the fee structure they are asking for enforced by a court. 

I don’t think that will ever happen.    I think it’s an unreasonable interpretation of the contract, rejected by the RSDC for all the right reasons.    It’s notable that the Nats didn’t challenge the RSDC’s ruling once the parties went to court, they merely sought to enforce what the RSDC decided.    Of course, if the case goes back to arbitration once all the appeals are over, there’s nothing to stop the Nats from trying their position again, but I give them little chance of succeeding.  

[weams]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that will ever happen.    I think it’s an unreasonable interpretation of the contract, rejected by the RSDC for all the right reasons.    It’s notable that the Nats didn’t challenge the RSDC’s ruling once the parties went to court, they merely sought to enforce what the RSDC decided.    Of course, if the case goes back to arbitration once all the appeals are over, there’s nothing to stop the Nats from trying their position again, but I give them little chance of succeeding.  

I respect your interpretation.

[Dark Helmet]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I allowed that might be the case for a minority.

 

Comcast has a stronghold on the region. And most are forced to pay for MASN anyhow. So the MASN fund's are there. Many want to cut the cord, but most don't.  And fios isn't offered to alot of people (for whatever different reasons) and dish and direct tv both offer MASN, though I'm not sure how the fees work on that end.

The Orioles need to make a choice. Spend like their capable of over the long haul and invest smartly in keeping a competitive team...rebuild smartly and invest in international talent and build a competitive team...or keep going the status quo and lose fans. The problem is, it took awhile to regain the fans trust after 14 straight losing seasons and after they let Cruz and Miller walk, alot of fans lost interest.

This team won't survive another 14 year stretch like that again. I'll be in my 50's by then and what nearly 50 years removed from a WS of any kind win or lose. People like me would have accepted being mediocre again, and fans that grew up in it will either grow up bandwagon fans of NY or Bos or not even care at all.

This team is at a major crossroad that could break this team completely if they choose the wrong direction. And imo, by not trading guys like Machado and Britton last year, may have already started down the wrong path.

[allquixotic]

On 5/14/2018 at 7:50 PM, Can_of_corn said:

It is not like folks just decide to get MASN.  If they get cable MASN is forced upon them.  Do you think there are a lot of folks that get cable just for MASN?

I guess the O's could get a hair less MLB.com money if less folks got the MLB.TV package.

I don't know if there are a "lot" of folks who have this stance, but I pretty much only have cable for MASN. I also have the sports package that I have exclusively for MASN. If there was no baseball I cared about I would probably cancel my TV package and just have Internet. I don't watch enough TV for it to be worth it.

[Rene88]

9 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

This idea had not occurred to me, but in keeping with it, Buck's precise quote about Santander's option in yesterday's Sun...

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-bs-orioles-20180513-story.html

...hit me kind of funny.

The precise bits for parsing...

“It’s a good level for him, Showalter said. “But if you look at Anthony’s experience, background, you can make a case for it. I just kind of asked, ‘Where do you want to send him? Bowie?’ That’s what I did

...what did Buck do?  Did he give an opinion to Duquette (or Brady)?  Is he just relating his thought pattern, and saying it was his decision?

If Buck is like Scioscia, and is quasi-GM too, I think I'm rooting for him to get out of the dugout for July so he can focus on the trade market.  Whether its only Manny for a re-tool, or Manny and other big pieces for a rebuild, focus shouldn't hurt.

Good post and thoughts.