Buck, Dan and ownership need to deal with the Davis issue first

[panick]

I agree with the idea of only using Davis in blowouts and as a late inning replacement for Mancini or Trumbo. Maybe the embarrassment of being used that way would lead Davis to ask for a buyout.

The problem is that Showalter would not do that.Davis is not the first player the O's have had that didn't play up to the expectations, and Showalter and Duquette have said that those players played well before. They have both put a reluctance to admit their mistakes ahead of the success of the team.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The Orioles don’t seem to understand that there’s no use chasing after a sunk cost.   It’s really hard to admit you’ve thrown $100 mm+ down the drain.   But playing a guy who is worse than replacement level, and likely to continue getting worse, only hurts the team.    Better to admit you made a franchise-screwing mistake and move on, lest the screwing be extended to the max.

Is there any prohibition in the Union agreement to prevent them from agreeing to pay everything he is owed in an annuity over 30 years? I believe his deferred money gets paid out at about $3.5 M per year, just put all $110 M + the rest of this year into it and DFA him. Unclogs 1B/DH, allows Stewart to come up and Mancini to split with Trumbo.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You can reach first base on a strikeout.

I'll take a strikeout over a weak grounder to short.

If Davis hit a weak ground ball to short he would have a hit as no one is playing short against him. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

If Davis hit a weak ground ball to short he would have a hit as no one is playing short against him. 

And I get accused of picking nits.

 

[TINSTAAPP]

5 minutes ago, Richmond Bird 9 said:

Part two / 2 Chris Davis   options (1 trade and 1 restructure)

1. Trade Chris Davis  (85 mil/5 yrs) to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp (43.5/2 yrs and Rich Hill (35.3/2 yrs). For the Dodgers, this is the reverse of the trade they did with the Braves.  Once again the O's pay the deferred money. 

The O's move Davis and save 6 mil over the 5 yrs.

The Dodgers save 21 mil in 2018 and 19 mil in 2019 (helps on luxury tax)

Davis to 1b and Cody B to cf (mentioned in MLBTR)

I don't know why the Dodgers would be so willing to dump Kemp. He's one of the few players on the Dodgers that's hitting right now and he's on pace to have a 3 WAR season. 

[Tx Oriole]

12 hours ago, Pat Kelly said:

I know this subject has been exhausted but I think Os leadership is underestimating now big the Davis issue is.     He is having a horrific season and is unlikely to improve.  Some big issues to think about.

1) Running him out there every day batting 5th or 6th will not fix him at this point and is making him and the team even worse.  If he is in the lineup he should bat 8th. 

2) impact on teammates.  I think he effects other players - they do not expect him to do anything, they know he is the highest paid player on the team and the three best Machado, Schoop and Jones are all leaving because the team cannot pay any one of them in part because of the Davis money.   How is he a good influence or even a helpful teammate at this point?  It is sad and disheartening watching him - easily the worst thing about this team.

3) impact on roster, lineup and defense.  Playing him at first against LHP makes zero sense.  At this point Rickard and Gentry are no worse against LHP and make the OF defense better allowing Mancini to play 1B.   But the reality is CD should be benched, DLd or sent to Tibet to find himself.  Mancini at 1B would allow room for a LHB for LF - DJ Stewart who has speed and gets on base and for now can platoon with Gentry or Rickard.    Eventually Mullins should replace Gentry.  

4) $.   This problem has come up for many teams and has gotten fixed - Redsox,  Marlins,  Prince Fielder and Mat Kemp.  Need to get creative and deal with this can’t afford the dollars and player to handcuff the franchise.  

It stinks to have to trade Machado but he has delivered tremendous surplus value and can be flipped into some new valuable assets - he is doing everything he can to help deliver that.   Davis is actually the bigger issue to solve and Buck et al need to stop saying that he will right himself.   The sooner we move on we can start rebuilding  and fixing things. 

 

 

I don't think Angelos will eat the Davis contract. Don't know how much CD is owed though. Davis will be a problem even after Buck and DD are gone. 

[spiritof66]

17 minutes ago, Richmond Bird 9 said:

Part two / 2 Chris Davis   options (1 trade and 1 restructure)

1. Trade Chris Davis  (85 mil/5 yrs) to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp (43.5/2 yrs and Rich Hill (35.3/2 yrs). For the Dodgers, this is the reverse of the trade they did with the Braves.  Once again the O's pay the deferred money. 

The O's move Davis and save 6 mil over the 5 yrs.

The Dodgers save 21 mil in 2018 and 19 mil in 2019 (helps on luxury tax)

Davis to 1b and Cody B to cf (mentioned in MLBTR)

2. Restructure: Davis is due 127 mil over the next """19 years""". 5yrs/17 mil and 10 yrs/3.5 mil and 5 yrs/1.4 mil. Restructure  his contract that you pay him 6.7 mil over 19 years and release him. This helps the O's in that we save 10.3 mil over the next 5 yrs. This gives the new F/O time to work with the roster. The next 15 yrs we have to pay more per year, but hopefully the new F/O won't box itself in, as in this year Dan/Buck/Manny/Jones/Britton/Brach and the monster contract of Davis. For Chris he actually makes 300,000 more on the life (19 yrs--I rounded up). He also becomes a F/A now and can take some time off to clear his head, find a hitting instructor to help him. He can also pick and choose his team/time to come back...Take a 1 yr deal and re-establish himself.

Why in the world would Dodgers, or any team that sees itself as a possible contender, give ABs to Chris Davis?

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

Here's what I would do. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but I think it's better than anything else. And I would look at this differently if I thought that keeping Chris Davis on the ML roster was depriving the Orioles of a chance for a successful season. 

Keep Davis on the roster but take him out of the starting lineup. Don't let him bat against lefthanders. Give him an occasional start and use him as a late-inning defensive replacement. That should keep Trumbo, and for the most part Mancini, out of the OF, and give us a better chance to see how Mancini performs at 1B. Davis would get maybe 75 to 100 ABs over the course of the  rest of the year if his performance level remains about what it is now. 

I assume that most of Davis's efforts to improve have involved, and most of the coaching he's received has come from, Coolbaugh. Maybe Brady. Whoever has been involved in that coaching and those efforts should be deemed to have failed -- though maybe it's not his or their fault. Find someone who thinks he can help Davis and hire him or her for a month or two, with the sole objective of trying to make Davis a better hitter in a stated period of time. If that means Davis spends some days or weeks away from the team in Florida or California or Tibet, requiring the Orioles to play with a 24-man roster, that's OK. If that doesn't work, repeat the process with someone else through September, or beyond if that makes sense.

During the off-season, involve the team''s (presumably new) GM and manager in the decision about what to do with Davis. But the presumption would be that he should not be back next year if there's been no improvement or good reason to expect improvement.

By the way, while I haven't gone back to look at the posts at the time of Davis's free agency, I don't think there were many, if any, posters who said they didn't think Davis could contribute to the Orioles for a few years. The debated issues that I recall were the length of the contract and how to weigh the very strong possibility that Davis would be in decline, possibly steep decline, by its last few years, and the apparent overpayment -- given the apparent lack of serious competitors to sign Chris -- by a team that had limited resources and would soon have other key players reaching free agency.

I had meant to include, but forgot, that whoever is hired to work with Davis should be told to spend some time teaching him to bunt and hit ground balls to the left side. That might allow Chris to provide some value, including value as a pinch hitter who can get on case.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TINSTAAPP said:

The only time I can remember the Orioles releasing a player with a multi-year contract before the final year of his contract was Sidney Ponson and that was due to off the field issues. Think about all of the terrible pitchers with multi-year contracts the Orioles have had over the years. None of them got released. And that was with players making a lot less money than Davis is making now. As long as Angelos is alive, Davis will not be DFA. Maybe his sons will be different but I doubt it.

I agree with you that’s been their MO — but it’s stupid.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

I don't know why the Dodgers would be so willing to dump Kemp. He's one of the few players on the Dodgers that's hitting right now and he's on pace to have a 3 WAR season. 

Orioles would need to include Gausman or Bundy to even get the Dodgers to think about trading Kemp and Hill for Davis.

[brooksfrankjim]

I can’t imagine Angelos eating the contract.  I think the only hope is to completely restructure his swing.  He can’t hit a fastball now.  Lower his hands, get into a more athletic position, open the stance, and shorten the swing.  It’s an insane long shot but the current swing and approach haven’t worked for nearly 2.5 years.  

 

The only other approach it to trade bad contracts for bad contracts and hope the change of scenery helps the bad contracts you pick up.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The Orioles don’t seem to understand that there’s no use chasing after a sunk cost.   It’s really hard to admit you’ve thrown $100 mm+ down the drain.   But playing a guy who is worse than replacement level, and likely to continue getting worse, only hurts the team.    Better to admit you made a franchise-screwing mistake and move on, lest the screwing be extended to the max.

The Orioles' reluctance to change Davis's role confirms two things to me. First, that Peter Angelos was heavily involved in the Davis contract. Angelos, to the best of my knowledge, has never admitted he was wrong about anything. He (or his sons in his name) might block any attempt to change Davis's role. Sercond, Buck manages the team as if he is answerable to no one and cannot be fired. He makes bad decisions, shows loyalty to players that hurts the team, and like Angelos cannot admit that he's made a mistake. He needs to be fired for this team to change direction. Waiting until his contract is up atb the end of the season won't set things back muvh, but I see no reason to wait; fire him, make Russell or someone else interim manager and tell him to play guys who can contribute going forward, not those who' have contributed in the past.

I'm not ready to say that the Davis money is a complete loss. I would get him out of the regular lineup, spend a little more taking the best available shot at making him a useful player, and then say good-bye if it doesn't work by the time the World Series ends (or some other date if that makes more sense).  In 2019 this team should have a useful Chris Davis or no Davis at all.

[atomic]

I doubt we would release Davis if this were the last year of his contract and he was only due 12 million this year.  They kept Jiminez until the very end.  They couldn't even just release Tillman they put him on some phony DL assignment.  I expect to see Chris Davis for 4 more years.  It is only a question of how low his OPS can go?  Perhaps it will go under .400 in a couple of years. 

[Plutarch]

In reality, the monetary cost of releasing CD is only the ML minimum.  If you work on the assumption that you are going to have to pay CD whether or not he plays, or is on the team, then the cost to replace him with a prospect from the minors is only the ML minimum.  Given CD's numbers this year I'm sure that there are adequate replacements in the minors.  

The emotional costs can be much greater:

1) The powers that be in the org will have to admit that the entire deal was a disaster - makes them look bad.

2) The embarrassment if CD were picked up by another team and somehow became a productive player again.

And for those suggesting that he sit the bench for the next 4.5 years...although a good idea from a purely win/loss perspective it may be off-putting enough to players that they might not want to come to the O's if they know that it is part of the organizations' M.O.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

The Orioles' reluctance to change Davis's role confirms two things to me. 

Well, I don’t really agree that they haven’t changed Davis’ role.  He’s only started 11 of 16 games vs. LHP, which is definitely a departure from past years.    But, it’s not drastic enough at this point.    He’s actually hitting worse against RH starters (.452 OPS) than LH starters (.676).