Olney and Ravech: O's are hemorrhaging Machado's trade value

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To get another job in baseball.

I'm sure he can just chalk it up to the dysfunction of the organization without a prospective employer batting an eyelash. 

Potential Employer - "So, Dan. Why didn't you trade Machado before he became a free agent?"

Dan - "Well, I certainly tried to, but others in the organization had the owner's ear and filled him with unrealistic expectations. So he shot down everything I brought to the table. I was also operating in a very limited capacity at that time because he had unofficially given control of player acquisitions / trades to Brady Anderson."

[Aristotelian]

Peter strikes me as the type of guy who would rather not deal than risk getting fleeced. He is that guy in your fantasy league who always asks for your best player for his two mediocre players, then comes back with an even worse deal after you refuse, and never, ever completes a trade. 

[NCRaven]

2 minutes ago, joelala said:

This.  Even if Brady isn't in contact with other GMs directly, he is still in contact with Pete and whispering to him "Manny is worth more."

Do you make this up?  If not, how do you know it is true?  It's like calling a person incompetent without even knowing for a fact what he does and does not do.  And, no, "everybody" doesn't know what Brady tells Angelos.

[joelala]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Peter strikes me as the type of guy who would rather not deal than risk getting fleeced. He is that guy in your fantasy league who always asks for your best player for his two mediocre players, then comes back with an even worse deal after you refuse, and never, ever completes a trade. 

Precisely.  It's all tied to public perception and ego.  He cannot handle people thinking he got beat in a deal.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm sure he can just chalk it up to the dysfunction of the organization without a prospective employer batting an eyelash. 

Potential Employer - "So, Dan. Why didn't you trade Machado before he became a free agent?"

Dan - "Well, I certainly tried to, but others in the organization had the owner's ear and filled him with unrealistic expectations. So he shot down everything I brought to the table. I was also operating in a very limited capacity at that time because he had unofficially given control of player acquisitions / trades to Brady Anderson."

I think things would go better if he gave max effort down the stretch.  People talk.

I certainly woudln't risk going into shut down mode in an industry as difficult to get into as MLB.

[Frobby]

Meh, I don’t know about Machado’s value hemorrhaging.   On the one hand, clearly 2 months of Machado is worth less than 4 months of Machado.    On the other hand, the trade deadline creates an auction mentality that doesn’t exist in June.   There’s a reason why 75% of mid-season trades occur within a few days of the deadline.

[Enjoy Terror]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Peter strikes me as the type of guy who would rather not deal than risk getting fleeced. He is that guy in your fantasy league who always asks for your best player for his two mediocre players, then comes back with an even worse deal after you refuse, and never, ever completes a trade. 

Uh, he’s that guy in real life. Forget fantasy.

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Meh, I don’t know about Machado’s value hemorrhaging.   On the one hand, clearly 2 months of Machado is worth less than 4 months of Machado.    On the other hand, the trade deadline creates an auction mentality that doesn’t exist in June.   There’s a reason why 75% of mid-season trades occur within a few days of the deadline.

And, without doing the research, I doubt there's any correlation between the return on a trade and whether it's made in mid-June, mid-July, or right at the deadline.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Meh, I don’t know about Machado’s value hemorrhaging.   On the one hand, clearly 2 months of Machado is worth less than 4 months of Machado.    On the other hand, the trade deadline creates an auction mentality that doesn’t exist in June.   There’s a reason why 75% of mid-season trades occur within a few days of the deadline.

I'm sure the word hemorrhaging was used to induce clicks.

I don't see the value of waiting, more and more teams will either drop out of contention or find other answers. 

[joelala]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

Do you make this up?  If not, how do you know it is true?  It's like calling a person incompetent without even knowing for a fact what he does and does not do.  And, no, "everybody" doesn't know what Brady tells Angelos.

No, you're right, it's pure conjecture.  But that's all we can do, because no one knows.

I have a feeling that Brady will be in Angelos' ear, telling him "we can do better, we can do better."

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

And, without doing the research, I doubt there's any correlation between the return on a trade and whether it's made in mid-June, mid-July, or right at the deadline.

Not sure how you would even mine data points to check.

[MMussina35]

I guess the committee can't agree on a return or they are stuck in the waiting room of PGA's law offices? 

I'm sure the frail high school pitcher they draft with comp pick for Manny won't crap out like (insert the long list of busts the Oriole have drafted)...

[baltfan]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Meh, I don’t know about Machado’s value hemorrhaging.   On the one hand, clearly 2 months of Machado is worth less than 4 months of Machado.    On the other hand, the trade deadline creates an auction mentality that doesn’t exist in June.   There’s a reason why 75% of mid-season trades occur within a few days of the deadline.

How the heck do other teams know his value is hemorrhaging?  They don't know the offers and what is being taken off the table.  For years trades have been made at the deadline.  The history of the value of players has been established by deadline trades.  I am for moving Machado now if possible, but the Orioles should be getting more for giving him to another team for a longer time.

Unlike Darvish, there will be no more impactful player on the market at the deadline.  The Orioles should do just fine.

[Hallas]

This strikes me as a rival executive trying to get Machado for a better price than the O's are currently willing to accept.  2 months + playoffs of Machado is still worth a lot, and the O's are correct to be asking for top tier talent.

For what it's worth, even just 2 months of Machado is worth upwards of 2 wins.  So teams should be willing to part with a pretty substantial amount in prospects in order to get him.  The floor is about $12 million surplus, which is about what a comp pick would be worth.  According to this article teams with a high chance of making the playoff need to be able to offer at least 2 wins per incoming win.  Or 4 wins.  That's about 45 million in surplus value that needs to come back for a trade to make sense.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

This strikes me as a rival executive trying to get Machado for a better price than the O's are currently willing to accept.  2 months + playoffs of Machado is still worth a lot, and the O's are correct to be asking for top tier talent.

For what it's worth, even just 2 months of Machado is worth upwards of 2 wins.  So teams should be willing to part with a pretty substantial amount in prospects in order to get him.  The floor is about $12 million surplus, which is about what a comp pick would be worth.  According to this article teams with a high chance of making the playoff need to be able to offer at least 2 wins per incoming win.  Or 4 wins.  That's about 45 million in surplus value that needs to come back for a trade to make sense.

The problem is a near ML ready prospect that is highly regarded has just a TON of value.  Just gobs and gobs of value.  At 8.5M a win a three win pitcher (a #3 guy) is going to produce 75 million in surplus value in just the first three years.