Grade the Gausman Deal

[ToadB22]

Looks like the guys and Fangraphs really loved the haul we got for Gausman, Machado, and Schoop.  This is from an Eric Longenhagen chat yesterday:

2:03	Snooker: If you were to rank the various organizations based on player development, who would be up top, who would be at the bottom, and where would the Tigers fit?

2:06	Eric A Longenhagen: Top ones for me are CLE, LAD, NYY, hard not to put BAL at the bottom.  Some orgs, and I think DET falls into this category, are tough to evaluate through this lens because their roster situations have made it difficult.

 

I have a hard time believing this, even before the trades.  I'd like to chalk this up to lazy writing, just giving the easy and typical answer without considering recent events and developments.  It makes me wonder what is necessary to gain respect from the propsect writing community.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, ToadB22 said:

Looks like the guys and Fangraphs really loved the haul we got for Gausman, Machado, and Schoop.  This is from an Eric Longenhagen chat yesterday:

2:03	Snooker: If you were to rank the various organizations based on player development, who would be up top, who would be at the bottom, and where would the Tigers fit?

2:06	Eric A Longenhagen: Top ones for me are CLE, LAD, NYY, hard not to put BAL at the bottom.  Some orgs, and I think DET falls into this category, are tough to evaluate through this lens because their roster situations have made it difficult.

 

I have a hard time believing this, even before the trades.  I'd like to chalk this up to lazy writing, just giving the easy and typical answer without considering recent events and developments.  It makes me wonder what is necessary to gain respect from the propsect writing community.

Hire respectable and responsible reporters.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, ToadB22 said:

Looks like the guys and Fangraphs really loved the haul we got for Gausman, Machado, and Schoop.  This is from an Eric Longenhagen chat yesterday:

2:03	Snooker: If you were to rank the various organizations based on player development, who would be up top, who would be at the bottom, and where would the Tigers fit?

2:06	Eric A Longenhagen: Top ones for me are CLE, LAD, NYY, hard not to put BAL at the bottom.  Some orgs, and I think DET falls into this category, are tough to evaluate through this lens because their roster situations have made it difficult.

 

I have a hard time believing this, even before the trades.  I'd like to chalk this up to lazy writing, just giving the easy and typical answer without considering recent events and developments.  It makes me wonder what is necessary to gain respect from the propsect writing community.

This is about player development, not the talent we have.   In other words, he’s saying we are poor at developing our talent.   

Interesting, because I’ve heard Buck say several times that our player development system is the best of any team.   But I’m sure Jake Arrieta disagrees.   

[wildbillhiccup]

For all of you knocking Gausman's ability to miss bats the league average strikeouts per 9 innings is 8.0 and Gausman's career average is 8.2. And there are plenty of > 8.0 guys who are doing well this year. I bolded a few of them below. The take away is, you don't have be an above average strikeout guy to be a good pitcher. 

1	Chris Sale	Boston Red Sox	SP	13.5
2	Gerrit Cole	Houston Astros	SP	12.3
3	Max Scherzer	Washington Nationals	SP	12.1
4	Justin Verlander	Houston Astros	SP	11.9
5	Trevor Bauer	Cleveland Indians	SP	11.6
6	James Paxton	Seattle Mariners	SP	11.4
7	Charlie Morton	Houston Astros	SP	11.2
8	Jacob deGrom	New York Mets	SP	11.0
9	Patrick Corbin	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	11.0
10	Nick Pivetta	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	11.0
11	Jon Gray	Colorado Rockies	SP	10.5
12	Mike Foltynewicz	Atlanta Braves	SP	10.4
13	Carlos Carrasco	Cleveland Indians	SP	10.2
14	Luis Severino	New York Yankees	SP	10.1
15	Blake Snell	Tampa Bay Rays	SP	10.1
16	Lance McCullers Jr.	Houston Astros	SP	9.9
17	J.A. Happ	New York Yankees	SP	9.8
18	German Marquez	Colorado Rockies	SP	9.7
19	Zack Godley	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	9.4
20	Dylan Bundy	Baltimore Orioles	SP	9.4
21	Jake Odorizzi	Minnesota Twins	SP	9.2
22	Jose Berrios	Minnesota Twins	SP	9.2
23	Derek Holland	San Francisco Giants	SP	9.2
24	Zack Greinke	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	9.1
25	Cole Hamels	Chicago Cubs	SP	9.1
26	David Price	Boston Red Sox	SP	9.0
27	Rick Porcello	Boston Red Sox	SP	8.9
28	Zack Wheeler	New York Mets	SP	8.8
29	Mike Clevinger	Cleveland Indians	SP	8.8
30	Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	8.7
31	Jakob Junis	Kansas City Royals	SP	8.6
32	Corey Kluber	Cleveland Indians	SP	8.6
33	Andrew Heaney	Los Angeles Angels	SP	8.6
34	Luis Castillo	Cincinnati Reds	SP	8.5
35	Kyle Gibson	Minnesota Twins	SP	8.5
36	Julio Teheran	Atlanta Braves	SP	8.3
37	Tyler Anderson	Colorado Rockies	SP	8.3
38	Junior Guerra	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	8.3
39	Sean Newcomb	Atlanta Braves	SP	8.2
40	Luke Weaver	St. Louis Cardinals	SP	8.0
41	Danny Duffy	Kansas City Royals	SP	8.0
42	Matthew Boyd	Detroit Tigers	SP	8.0
43	Alex Wood	Los Angeles Dodgers	SP	7.9
44	Jose Quintana	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.9
45	Jameson Taillon	Pittsburgh Pirates	SP	7.9
46	Marco Gonzales	Seattle Mariners	SP	7.9
47	Gio Gonzalez	Washington Nationals	SP	7.9
48	Kyle Hendricks	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.7
49	Tyson Ross	St. Louis Cardinals	RP	7.6
50	Tanner Roark	Washington Nationals	SP	7.5
51	Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies	SP	7.4
52	Jhoulys Chacin	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	7.4
53	Kevin Gausman	Atlanta Braves	SP	7.3
54	Jose Urena	Miami Marlins	SP	7.3
55	Jon Lester	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.2
56	Chase Anderson	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	7.2
57	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	RP	7.0
58	James Shields	Chicago White Sox	SP	7.0
59	Mike Fiers	Oakland Athletics	SP	6.9
60	Dallas Keuchel	Houston Astros	SP	6.7
61	Jake Arrieta	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	6.5
62	Sal Romano	Cincinnati Reds	SP	6.4
63	Andrew Cashner	Baltimore Orioles	SP	6.4
64	Reynaldo Lopez	Chicago White Sox	SP	6.3
65	Ivan Nova	Pittsburgh Pirates	SP	6.3
66	Lucas Giolito	Chicago White Sox	SP	6.2
67	Alex Cobb	Baltimore Orioles	SP	6.2
68	Clayton Richard	San Diego Padres	SP	6.1
69	Miles Mikolas	St. Louis Cardinals	SP	6.1
70	Sean Manaea	Oakland Athletics	SP	6.1
71	Mike Leake	Seattle Mariners	SP	5.6
72	Bartolo Colon	Texas Rangers	SP	5.0

 

[hoosiers]

I don't believe Joe Jordan thought very highly of our player development guys either.  

I think things have improved a lot with DD's hires.  I believe we have more guys moving though the system - particularly non-star and not top five round prospects like Mullins and McKenna and Mancini.  We are seeing good results from Hays and Mountcastle.  On the pitching side, Akin, Lowther, Hall and multiple others are moving through the system and in the majors (Hess, Givens, Wright).  We are a long way from the days with Schoop, Tillman, Britton, Jake, Matusz and a host of others in a somewhat deep system with higher-end talent (though DD has moved or forfeited a lot of draft picks and some decent talent), but we have guys moving through the system.  

I think Tampa does a great job with their guys and have been impressed with Wendle and Bauers.  

I guess I try to see the positive side of things.  I do feel that our development group has improved significantly but it is not an overwhelming system due to trades of decent prospects like Myers, the lack of international guys in the system and the forfeited draft picks.

On the flip side, if this guy things our development team is sub-par, he must think the draft guys are blowing it out of the water when players like Mancini and Mullins are getting to the show.

[Hallas]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

This is about player development, not the talent we have.   In other words, he’s saying we are poor at developing our talent.   

Interesting, because I’ve heard Buck say several times that our player development system is the best of any team.   But I’m sure Jake Arrieta disagrees.   

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/

Fangraphs disagrees too.  And they have the stats to back it up. (admittedly from last year but I doubt that much has changed.)

[ChosenOne21]

They have Cleveland right at the bottom with Baltimore, does anyone believe Cleveland is bad at developing talent? Also, this is since 2000 and we all know the Orioles are better at developing talent now than they were back in the 15 seasons of darkness

[weams]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

This is about player development, not the talent we have.   In other words, he’s saying we are poor at developing our talent.   

Interesting, because I’ve heard Buck say several times that our player development system is the best of any team.   But I’m sure Jake Arrieta disagrees.   

I don't believe things just because Buck, or Dan, or Mike Bordick ,or Jim Hunter say them. They are all employees. We are all paid to speak well of out organizations. On the record. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 8/17/2018 at 1:56 PM, wildbillhiccup said:

For all of you knocking Gausman's ability to miss bats the league average strikeouts per 9 innings is 8.0 and Gausman's career average is 8.2. And there are plenty of > 8.0 guys who are doing well this year. I bolded a few of them below. The take away is, you don't have be an above average strikeout guy to be a good pitcher. 

1	Chris Sale	Boston Red Sox	SP	13.5
2	Gerrit Cole	Houston Astros	SP	12.3
3	Max Scherzer	Washington Nationals	SP	12.1
4	Justin Verlander	Houston Astros	SP	11.9
5	Trevor Bauer	Cleveland Indians	SP	11.6
6	James Paxton	Seattle Mariners	SP	11.4
7	Charlie Morton	Houston Astros	SP	11.2
8	Jacob deGrom	New York Mets	SP	11.0
9	Patrick Corbin	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	11.0
10	Nick Pivetta	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	11.0
11	Jon Gray	Colorado Rockies	SP	10.5
12	Mike Foltynewicz	Atlanta Braves	SP	10.4
13	Carlos Carrasco	Cleveland Indians	SP	10.2
14	Luis Severino	New York Yankees	SP	10.1
15	Blake Snell	Tampa Bay Rays	SP	10.1
16	Lance McCullers Jr.	Houston Astros	SP	9.9
17	J.A. Happ	New York Yankees	SP	9.8
18	German Marquez	Colorado Rockies	SP	9.7
19	Zack Godley	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	9.4
20	Dylan Bundy	Baltimore Orioles	SP	9.4
21	Jake Odorizzi	Minnesota Twins	SP	9.2
22	Jose Berrios	Minnesota Twins	SP	9.2
23	Derek Holland	San Francisco Giants	SP	9.2
24	Zack Greinke	Arizona Diamondbacks	SP	9.1
25	Cole Hamels	Chicago Cubs	SP	9.1
26	David Price	Boston Red Sox	SP	9.0
27	Rick Porcello	Boston Red Sox	SP	8.9
28	Zack Wheeler	New York Mets	SP	8.8
29	Mike Clevinger	Cleveland Indians	SP	8.8
30	Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	8.7
31	Jakob Junis	Kansas City Royals	SP	8.6
32	Corey Kluber	Cleveland Indians	SP	8.6
33	Andrew Heaney	Los Angeles Angels	SP	8.6
34	Luis Castillo	Cincinnati Reds	SP	8.5
35	Kyle Gibson	Minnesota Twins	SP	8.5
36	Julio Teheran	Atlanta Braves	SP	8.3
37	Tyler Anderson	Colorado Rockies	SP	8.3
38	Junior Guerra	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	8.3
39	Sean Newcomb	Atlanta Braves	SP	8.2
40	Luke Weaver	St. Louis Cardinals	SP	8.0
41	Danny Duffy	Kansas City Royals	SP	8.0
42	Matthew Boyd	Detroit Tigers	SP	8.0
43	Alex Wood	Los Angeles Dodgers	SP	7.9
44	Jose Quintana	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.9
45	Jameson Taillon	Pittsburgh Pirates	SP	7.9
46	Marco Gonzales	Seattle Mariners	SP	7.9
47	Gio Gonzalez	Washington Nationals	SP	7.9
48	Kyle Hendricks	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.7
49	Tyson Ross	St. Louis Cardinals	RP	7.6
50	Tanner Roark	Washington Nationals	SP	7.5
51	Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies	SP	7.4
52	Jhoulys Chacin	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	7.4
53	Kevin Gausman	Atlanta Braves	SP	7.3
54	Jose Urena	Miami Marlins	SP	7.3
55	Jon Lester	Chicago Cubs	SP	7.2
56	Chase Anderson	Milwaukee Brewers	SP	7.2
57	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	RP	7.0
58	James Shields	Chicago White Sox	SP	7.0
59	Mike Fiers	Oakland Athletics	SP	6.9
60	Dallas Keuchel	Houston Astros	SP	6.7
61	Jake Arrieta	Philadelphia Phillies	SP	6.5
62	Sal Romano	Cincinnati Reds	SP	6.4
63	Andrew Cashner	Baltimore Orioles	SP	6.4
64	Reynaldo Lopez	Chicago White Sox	SP	6.3
65	Ivan Nova	Pittsburgh Pirates	SP	6.3
66	Lucas Giolito	Chicago White Sox	SP	6.2
67	Alex Cobb	Baltimore Orioles	SP	6.2
68	Clayton Richard	San Diego Padres	SP	6.1
69	Miles Mikolas	St. Louis Cardinals	SP	6.1
70	Sean Manaea	Oakland Athletics	SP	6.1
71	Mike Leake	Seattle Mariners	SP	5.6
72	Bartolo Colon	Texas Rangers	SP	5.0

 

Minimum 10 starts, median ERA+ of pitchers with:

> 10 K/9:  134

9-9.99 K/9: 107

8-8.99: K/9: 105

7-7.99 K/9: 101

6-6.99 K/9: 93

< 6 K/9:  103 (but also by far the smallest of any of the groups).

Can you be a good starter with a below average K rate?  Sure, it's possible.  Is it far more likely that a good pitcher has a high strikeout rate?  Absolutely.  It's as true as it has always been that pitchers with the highest strikeout rates tend to be the best pitchers.

[hoosiers]

16 hours ago, Hallas said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/

Fangraphs disagrees too.  And they have the stats to back it up. (admittedly from last year but I doubt that much has changed.)

That is some great information - somewhat depressing, but great information.  As MM puts up 5+ WAR per year, hopefully, we should vacate the bottom tier as more guys get to the majors.

[Going Underground]

Gausman vs. Archer matchup tonight.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Going Underground said:

Gausman vs. Archer matchup tonight.

My crystal ball says they both get lit up tonight.

[Tony-OH]

On 8/16/2018 at 5:31 PM, Finisher said:

Seems like some people are just cool with moving Gausman because he's been inconsistent and they were sick of him.

That's fine.

But the package we got is not going to help us and it's pathetic compared to what Tampa got for Archer. I think we mainly got unlucky that Tampa decided to finally move Archer. I think we get 2 of the 3 pieces Tampa got had Archer not been on the block.

Out of all of the trades, the Gausman return was the weakest and that's because the orioles seemed to be more worried about shedding salary (O'day) then getting the top prospects that they could get.

It's too early to to judge what the Orioles got in return, but I will admit that I would have liked to have gotten one of the Braves top 100 prospects for a year and half worth of Gausman. Then again, I probably would not have gotten rid of O'Days contract with that kind of return and I'm sure that was a huge part of this team.

Now, if the Jean Carlos Encarnacion lottery ticket pays off (and yes I have serious concerns over the K-BB ratio despite the tools) then this won't look so bad, but I would have tried to hold out for Fried or Allard and not made the deal unless I could have gotten one of them.

Saying all that, I also don't know what kind of pressure Duquette was under to shed salary for next year. The O'day contract was an albatross, not a Davis albatross, but a Trumbo-like albatross so shedding his salary was a good thing, especially if that money is going to be used for the upgrading the scouting, infrastructure, and international scene (which let's not forget the Orioles did get international slot money).

Just on players received back alone this trade doesn't look good and won't look good unless Encarnacion becomes something, but the international money and losing O'day albatross contract have to be taking into consideration when looking at the big picture.

 

 

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Out of all of the trades, the Gausman return was the weakest and that's because the orioles seemed to be more worried about shedding salary (O'day) then getting the top prospects that they could get.

It's too early to to judge what the Orioles got in return, but I will admit that I would have liked to have gotten one of the Braves top 100 prospects for a year and half worth of Gausman. Then again, I probably would not have gotten rid of O'Days contract with that kind of return and I'm sure that was a huge part of this team.

Now, if the Jean Carlos Encarnacion lottery ticket pays off (and yes I have serious concerns over the K-BB ratio despite the tools) then this won't look so bad, but I would have tried to hold out for Fried or Allard and not made the deal unless I could have gotten one of them.

Saying all that, I also don't know what kind of pressure Duquette was under to shed salary for next year. The O'day contract was an albatross, not a Davis albatross, but a Trumbo-like albatross so shedding his salary was a good thing, especially if that money is going to be used for the upgrading the scouting, infrastructure, and international scene (which let's not forget the Orioles did get international slot money).

Just on players received back alone this trade doesn't look good and won't look good unless Encarnacion becomes something, but the international money and losing O'day albatross contract have to be taking into consideration when looking at the big picture.

 

 

Two and one third seasons of Gausman left before FA.  Makes the deal even worse.

[Hallas]

Another pretty good comp for Gausman is Clay Buchholz.  He's had a really uneven career, with better "best" seasons, but a few more years where he's less than useless.  Through his Arb1 year, Buchholz accrued 9.8 WAR, then had a good Arb2 year.  Gausman accrued 8.1 WAR by his Arb1 year.  Gausman's Arb2 year probably isn't going to be as good as Buchholz's Arb2 year but if he pitches well for Atlanta, it will be respectable.  I think Buchholz's career is a little closer to Gausman's than Archer's.  While it's partially due to perception of the respective orgs, I certainly think that 2011/2012 Buchholz being traded for a comparable package as Gausman at that time would have been seen as highway robbery.