Grade the Gausman Deal

[Hallas]

30 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

So you think the Braves coaches were able to coach Gausman to induce a .238 BABIP? If so, then they should be fired for not coaching their entire pitching staff to do likewise. 

Of course not, my point is that quality of contact does matter, and BABIP isn't the best indicator of this in small samples.  That said, even if his BABIP was something a little more sustainable, his stats would still be better than they were in Baltimore, as his FIP is quite a bit better.  You could argue about his HR/FB rate as well.  I believe this is attributable to park effects, as SunTrust park, and every park he's pitched in has had a large suppressive effect on HRs (OPACY is 1.19, the 3 parks he's played in are between .71 and .81.)

So I would concede that his true skill level hasn't changed *that* much.  That said, it's not entirely luck, unless you consider it to be good fortune that his biggest weakness is probably giving up too many HRs, and he's pitched 4 straight games in extreme HR-suppressing stadiums.

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

There are new analyses showing incredibly weak relationships between exit velocity and other associated variables and BABIP. Weak contact and screaming outs turn out to be pretty randomly distributed. A start with weak contacts may look better, but it ultimately actually says nothing more about a pitchers ability than the one with screaming outs. What do you think about ERA in small sample sizes? That and comments to reporters about a few good starts with a new organization are the justification for a coaching-induced change in Gausman. 

 

P.s. BABIP is actually a great stat to keep evaluations more accurate with small sample sizes. Study after study shows that pitchers have little to no control on what happens after the bat leaves the ball, especially if it is not a home run or a ground ball. If a pitcherhas unusually good results and doesn’t strike out more hitters, doesn’t walk fewer hitters, but has an unusually low BABIP then that tells you a lot about the future. I think you have the small sample size thing totally backwards. 

I am a statistically-aware guy, but there are some things I will just never believe, and one of them is that quality of contact has little or no relationship to how well a guy is pitching.   If that makes me an ignorant old fart, so be it.    It’s contrary to everything my eyes tell me and have told me for 50+ years while watching games.   

[Ohfan67]

14 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Of course not, my point is that quality of contact does matter, and BABIP isn't the best indicator of this in small samples.  That said, even if his BABIP was something a little more sustainable, his stats would still be better than they were in Baltimore, as his FIP is quite a bit better.  You could argue about his HR/FB rate as well.  I believe this is attributable to park effects, as SunTrust park, and every park he's pitched in has had a large suppressive effect on HRs (OPACY is 1.19, the 3 parks he's played in are between .71 and .81.)

So I would concede that his true skill level hasn't changed *that* much.  That said, it's not entirely luck, unless you consider it to be good fortune that his biggest weakness is probably giving up too many HRs, and he's pitched 4 straight games in extreme HR-suppressing stadiums.

A pitcher can reduce home runs, but I don’t think the changes that Gausman has made are going to reduce home runs long term. I think it’s stadiums, weak lineups, and luck. And the data to date support that opinion a lot more than the magic coaching that some seem to believe in. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I am a statistically-aware guy, but there are some things I will just never believe, and one of them is that quality of contact has little or no relationship to how well a guy is pitching.   If that makes me an ignorant old fart, so be it.    It’s contrary to everything my eyes tell me and have told me for 50+ years while watching games.   

So little dribblers off the end of the bat don't fall in as hits and scorched line drives don't get caught?

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

So little dribblers off the end of the bat don't fall in as hits and scorched line drives don't get caught?

Not at all what I’m saying.    I’m saying that if you throw a good pitch, the chance that a batted ball will be a scorching liner goes down.   Not to zero, but considerably.    So if I see a game where almost nobody really squared a ball up, generally I’m going to credit the pitcher, unless I see evidence that he got away with a lot.    

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not at all what I’m saying.    I’m saying that if you throw a good pitch, the chance that a batted ball will be a scorching liner goes down.   Not to zero, but considerably.    So if I see a game where almost nobody really squared a ball up, generally I’m going to credit the pitcher, unless I see evidence that he got away with a lot.    

Sure but that doesn't mean the end result for the pitcher in this game will be favorable.

I just had a thought.  I wonder if well stroked line drives have a tendency to be more often hit where the defense is aligned to defend the batter?

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I am a statistically-aware guy, but there are some things I will just never believe, and one of them is that quality of contact has little or no relationship to how well a guy is pitching.   If that makes me an ignorant old fart, so be it.    It’s contrary to everything my eyes tell me and have told me for 50+ years while watching games.   

Glad to see you are admitting it.  

A .238 BABIP is luck. Greg Maddux’ career BABIP was .281. That’s about as good as controlling the outcome as it gets. The vast majority of pitchers range .290 to .310. I always thought Maddux could actually induce weak contact in critical situations. That stuff is hard to tease out with stats even with all the data because it may just be a play or two a game or even less frequent. But Gausman didn’t become Greg Maddux overnight. 

 

I’m also only slightly kidding about you admitting to being an ignorant old fart. You are a lawyer so you should know that eyewitness testimony is often wrong. “ I saw it with my own eyes” has proven to be pretty terrible in a ton of studies. When we watch a game, we are really dissecting an outlier, unless it’s the most average game ever played. We root for teams that play a game where the winner is often the team with the most beneficial outliers. I love it when my pitcher induced a bunch of weak outs. It’s a beautiful game. But the harsh reality is that it was more than likely just a string of random outcomes around his true ability. But we can believe it’s because we knocked on wood, wore our lucky underwear, ate chicken before the game, sacrificed the chicken to the voodoo god, or changed position on the pitching rubber. 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Glad to see you are admitting it.  

A .238 BABIP is luck. Greg Maddux’ career BABIP was .281. That’s about as good as controlling the outcome as it gets. The vast majority of pitchers range .290 to .310. I always thought Maddux could actually induce weak contact in critical situations. That stuff is hard to tease out with stats even with all the data because it may just be a play or two a game or even less frequent. But Gausman didn’t become Greg Maddux overnight. 

 

I’m also only slightly kidding about you admitting to being an ignorant old fart. You are a lawyer so you should know that eyewitness testimony is often wrong. “ I saw it with my own eyes” has proven to be pretty terrible in a ton of studies. When we watch a game, we are really dissecting an outlier, unless it’s the most average game ever played. We root for teams that play a game where the winner is often the team with the most beneficial outliers. I love it when my pitcher induced a bunch of weak outs. It’s a beautiful game. But the harsh reality is that it was more than likely just a string of random outcomes around his true ability. But we can believe it’s because we knocked on wood, wore our lucky underwear, ate chicken before the game, sacrificed the chicken to the voodoo god, or changed position on the pitching rubber. 

Here’s a subject I’ve often wondered about: does BABIP vary significantly by count?    I.e. is there a noticeable difference between BABIP on a 3-1 count vs. a 1-2 count?     Instinctively, I would say yes.   And the answer is yes.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/4nxmht/something_interesting_i_noticed_about_babip_it/#ampf=undefined

Not enough to get to a .238 BABIP, but I didn’t think it would be.   There’s about a 30 point spread depending on the count.    And of course, that excludes homers.

 

[Frobby]

BABIP varies by where the pitch is thrown.    Not surprising.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2014/7/21/5921769/babip--strikezone-location-mlb

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Not at all what I’m saying.    I’m saying that if you throw a good pitch, the chance that a batted ball will be a scorching liner goes down.   Not to zero, but considerably.    So if I see a game where almost nobody really squared a ball up, generally I’m going to credit the pitcher, unless I see evidence that he got away with a lot.    

Inclined to agree with this.  There are such things as loud outs, though.  A deep fly to the warning track that maybe got hurt by the wind.  A bullet to the third baseman where he doesn't have to move.  A screaming grounder down the first base line.

 

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a subject I’ve often wondered about: does BABIP vary significantly by count?    I.e. is there a noticeable difference between BABIP on a 3-1 count vs. a 1-2 count?     Instinctively, I would say yes.   And the answer is yes.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/4nxmht/something_interesting_i_noticed_about_babip_it/#ampf=undefined

Not enough to get to a .238 BABIP, but I didn’t think it would be.   There’s about a 30 point spread depending on the count.    And of course, that excludes homers.

 

One thing I've been wondering lately is how are BABIP and other stats reflected NOT JUST ON THE COUNT but the number of pitches in the total at bat.

The first time a batter reaches a 3-2 count, IMO, is vastly different than a 3-2 count after the batter has fouled off 3 pitches.  IMO, the batter has the advantage.  He's seen more.  He's got more information to work with.  By then, he's probably seen everything the pitcher has to offer and nothing should really be a surprise.  

I've seen plenty of information on stats in different counts but no one seems to talk about pitches per at bat and repeating counts (again, 3-2, fouling off consecutive pitches. A 1-2 count, fouling off pitches, working it even or even full...an at bat that spans 7 or 8 pitches).

[weams]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Did anyone post the article on the third basemen we got from the Gausman trade? It was in the Sun and was positive from the Braves and Orioles side.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minors-20180811-story.html

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-encarnacion-20180823-story.html

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, weams said:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minors-20180811-story.html

Wish I could read that.

Its good to hear encouraging things from the MIL system for 3rd, since there isn't anybody else there.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Wish I could read that.

Its good to hear encouraging things from the MIL system for 3rd, since there isn't anybody else there.

https://checkout.baltimoresun.com/subscriptionPanel/?presentation=MTRDigital&PID=10188&zipCode=00000&int=bs_digitaladshouse_4-weeks-99-private_acquisition-subscriber_ngux_button_modal_______bxca&success=%3FdssReturn%3Dtrue&returnUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baltimoresun.com%2Fsports%2Forioles%2Fbs-sp-orioles-encarnacion-20180823-story.html

[BarclaySouthway]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

 

Always a good excuse to post this from xstats.org. Check out the site, it's worth it. 

 

Dribble Balls

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	107,594	13,385	12,528	834	21	2	.128	.137	.124	.112
2015	35,630	4,465	4,179	279	5	2	.130	.138	.125	.114
2016	33,555	4,088	3,852	228	8	0	.126	.133	.122	.110
2017	34,150	4,321	4,023	292	6	0	.130	.139	.127	.114
2018	4,259	511	474	35	2	0	.123	.133	.120	.111

 

 

I am trying to figure out how you get a home run on a dribble ball.