Grade the Gausman Deal

[weams]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

113 National League pitchers have made five or more starts this year.  Gausman is 107th in K/9, at 5.8.  He has a 3.88 FIP, and a 4.38 xFIP.  His walk rate is higher than it was in Baltimore.  And his BABIP is 58 points lower than his career mark.

All of that points to an nice little 8-start run where he's seen a lot of balls hit at his fielders and that's making up for a disconcertingly low strikeout rate.  But if you want to dabble in the dark arts and assume the ghost of Leo Mazzone has enabled some pitching to contact wizardry that's fine, too.

Wonderful. Thank you. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

One of my points all along has been that if Gausman went to a team with better offense, defense and pen he would be a #1 or #2 starter.  That appears be happening.   He only looked like a #4  because of his poor support with he O's.

From what I have read Gausman is now throwing his splitter more which causes more ground balls and less homers.  That might also account for his strikeout dropping a little.

According to Fangraphs he threw 22% splitters with the O's, 19% with the Braves.

How does getting more runs make up for the fact you allow a #3-4 starter level of runs (4.14) per game?

[weams]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

According to Fangraphs he threw 22% splitters with the O's, 19% with the Braves.

How does getting more runs make up for the fact you allow a #3-4 starter level of runs (4.14) per game?

He hates the trade out of Hatred.

I can understand. I really liked Kevin Gausman.

The facts are that the Orioles shed much needed salary and acquired a few  lottery tickets. Some with better odds than others. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

One of my points all along has been that if Gausman went to a team with better offense, defense and pen he would be a #1 or #2 starter.  That appears be happening.   He only looked like a #4  because of his poor support with he O's.

From what I have read Gausman is now throwing his splitter more which causes more ground balls and less homers.  That might also account for his strikeout dropping a little.

As I’ve already pointed out, (1) Atlanta’s offense is irrelevant to how good of a starter he is, and (2) Gausman had above average bullpen support this year.   Defense is your only arguable point.    

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I’ve already pointed out, (1) Atlanta’s offense is irrelevant to how good of a starter he is, and (2) Gausman had above average bullpen support this year.   Defense is your only arguable point.    

IMO a good offense makes a starting pitcher's job easier.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

According to Fangraphs he threw 22% splitters with the O's, 19% with the Braves.

How does getting more runs make up for the fact you allow a #3-4 starter level of runs (4.14) per game?

This report says he throw 24% splitter with the O's and 32% with he Braves.  I guess it depends on who is counting the pitches.

https://fshbaseball.wordpress.com/2018/09/15/where-is-kevin-gausmans-fastball-going/

[Aristotelian]

https://fshbaseball.wordpress.com/2018/09/15/where-is-kevin-gausmans-fastball-going/

Sounds like luck and small sample size are the biggest factors. K/9 is down to 5.8 and he is getting hit hard.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This report says he throw 24% splitter with the O's and 32% with he Braves.  I guess it depends on who is counting the pitches.

https://fshbaseball.wordpress.com/2018/09/15/where-is-kevin-gausmans-fastball-going/

I would never bet against the accuracy of Drungo.  That's a suckers bet. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, weams said:

He hates the trade out of Hatred.

I can understand. I really liked Kevin Gausman.

The facts are that the Orioles shed much needed salary and acquired a few  lottery tickets. Some with better odds than others. 

Well, I agree I hated the trade from the time it was made.   Getting rid of O'Day's salary was not a good reason to take suspects for Gausman.

[weams]

Just now, wildcard said:

Well, I agree I hated the trade from the time it was made.   Getting rid of O'Day's salary was not a good reason to take suspects for Gausman.

I understand your viewpoint.  I believe that the only thing the Orioles could screw up now in the rebuild is spend any money on 25 man roster acquisitions or retention. 

[wildcard]

Just now, weams said:

I would never bet against the accuracy of Drungo.  That's a suckers bet. 

I am not betting against Drungo.  I am just showing were I read that Gausman is throwing more splitters.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I understand your viewpoint.  I believe that the only thing the Orioles could screw up now in the rebuild is spend any money on 25 man roster acquisitions or retention. 

That sure don't seem like the direction.  It appears that will trade almost anyone that is make more than the minimum.  They may keep Villar for a year.

[weams]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=592332&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=09/16/2018&s_type=2

[weams]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That sure don't seem like the direction.  It appears that will trade almost anyone that is make more than the minimum.  They may keep Villar for a year.

We agree. It is the right direction. 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=592332&time=&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=09/16/2018&s_type=2

That seems to verify the article I posted.