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2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why


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On 11/14/2018 at 5:05 PM, Tony-OH said:

I read that article and was getting all excited, until I saw that Mejdal's system told them that Brady Aiken was the best player available to be drafted 1-1 in 2014 over their other whittled down candidates, Carlos Rondon, Alex Jackson, and Tyler Kolek. Not only Aiken not sign, he's been a bad pro so far with almost no control/command in an Indians system that drafted him 17th overall the next year.

All but Rondon, who has been a decent starter for the White Sox, have not been very good pros. This is isn't a shot at Mejdal's system just to say no system is full proof. I personally don't believe a system works for high school players because there are too many wild cards. 

Tell you what though, that area scout missed pretty badly on Aiken. 

Area scout Brad Budzinski was similarly unequivocal about Aiken, a 6'4" lefty from San Diego's Cathedral Catholic High who had committed to play at UCLA and who threw a mid-90s fastball to go with a plus curveball and changeup. "I love everything about this kid," Budzinski said. "To me, we're getting possibly the next Andy Pettitte. Makeup-wise, I feel like it's Peyton Manning on a surfboard. A lot of people say they want to be a Hall of Famer, but I believe for this kid it's a realistic goal."

"If the stuff stayed the same as it is right now," said Post, "it's more than enough to pitch and have success in the big leagues."

 

I get what you're saying.  On the other hand, maybe they identified something with Aiken that they felt they could change or work on that would have made him useful to them, something others have missed?  I dunno, trying to think positive for the next few years!

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22 minutes ago, gmelson26 said:

I get what you're saying.  On the other hand, maybe they identified something with Aiken that they felt they could change or work on that would have made him useful to them, something others have missed?  I dunno, trying to think positive for the next few years!

No, they didn't do that with 1-1, 99.9999% of the scouts who saw Aiken, missed on Aiken. Aiken would have gone top 5 regardless, and some team would have missed. I guarantee if Tony or I or anyone went and saw Aiken back then, we'd have loved him too, maybe not #1 on the board loved, but an early 1st round grade. It just didn't work out, that happens. 

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The Orioles have drafted Ben McDonald, who was universally praised as the best college pitcher, ever, and Dylan Bundy,similarly cited as  the best high school pitcher, ever. Neither lived up to the hype. Injuries played a part in that, as they did for Aiken. 

Attrition plays a big part in building pitching. You need to start with a lot of great arms to end up with one good one.

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1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

The Orioles have drafted Ben McDonald, who was universally praised as the best college pitcher, ever, and Dylan Bundy,similarly cited as  the best high school pitcher, ever. Neither lived up to the hype. Injuries played a part in that, as they did for Aiken. 

Attrition plays a big part in building pitching. You need to start with a lot of great arms to end up with one good one.

Undisputed.

So, grow the bats, buy the arms? Otherwise you're wasting a lot of draft picks.

I would think a sensible analytics system would give a blanket deduction on every pitcher value, based on positional risk alone.

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Teams used to have all kinds of ways to get good. 

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  • With Blake Snell fresh off winning American League Cy Young honors, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times revisits the 2011 draft, in which the Rays landed the left-hander. Although the Rays had 10 of the top 60 picks that year, nearly all of their selections have disappointed in various ways, as Topkin details. Snell, whom they nabbed 52nd overall, has been an obvious exception. Notably, Tampa Bay wouldn’t have owned the choice it used on Snell had it not signed veteran outfielder Brad Hawpe in August 2010. Hawpe made little on-field impact as a Ray, but his exit in free agency during the ensuing offseason netted the team the compensatory pick that turned into Snell.

MLBTR

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15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How has buying the arms been working out for them?

Mike Wright doesn't impress?  You had him in the pen ever since his ECU Pirate daze .... ⚾  a few tweaks from Sig and he's "good to go".  But true that Bundy, Gaus, Hobgood, etc. have not fared well yet..

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