MLB.com: Mancini the most likely current player to be on O's roster in 2025?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think Cal and Brady were the only 1988 Orioles also on the 1995 Orioles.  Although Leo Gomez, Arthur Rhodes and maybe one or two others were in the minors in '88 and Chris Hoiles was acquired for Fred Lynn on August 31st, 1988 but didn't appear in the majors until '89. 

The 2018 Orioles had less talent than the '88 team.  There's no Cal.  I'm with NCRaven, my vote is for no one.

That is why I didn't go with someone on the 2018 team.  Hays has a chance to still be under team control in 2025.  I think that gives him at least some chance.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

How often do star players sign extensions with their current teams? I don't see the Orioles pulling out the checkbook for Mancini. I would have to go with Hunter Harvey, who is on the 40 man but doesn't have any service time yet.

The odds aren't great that the O's will need to write a big check for Mancini's production come free agent time. 

Mancini's top comps include Jason Kubel (career basically done by 31, which is how old Mancini will be at the start of the '25 season) , Jody Gerut (last productive season at 30), Ivan Calderon (last good year at 29), Jeffrey Hammonds (29) and... Mark Trumbo.

But we could roll the dice and hope he's the new Kirk Gibson, who is his #4.

 

Edit: I never finished the post... while the odds on Mancini aren' t high, I think they're a lot higher than Harvey being healthy/good in 2025.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

I will go with Austin Hays.  I dont' think Mancini will be on the roster in 2025.  He will be a free agent after the 2022 season and he would turn 33 in the 2025 season.  He could be out of baseball by then. 

I didn't realize Mancini's contract was up in 2023. Knowing that I'd say that's some pretty lazy journalism. I don't see why they would possibly resign him. 

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s really unlikely.    But suppose he becomes a consistent .800+ OPS hitter?   In that case I’d probably be OK with it, depending on how other players have developed.   

If that happens it would depend on his contract I guess. I've had enough of the long term bone head contracts like Davis.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I didn't realize Mancini's contract was up in 2023. Knowing that I'd say that's some pretty lazy journalism. I don't see why they would possibly resign him. 

In 2023 he hits .277/22/60 in 475 PAs and the O's resign him to a 2/17 deal.  I could see that.  There has to be less than a 20% chance of him getting a big, long deal in free agency at any point.

[esmd]

I mean, I guess the premise of "most likely" can be argued, in that it's not a very high likelihood, just higher than anyone else that currently on the 40 man.

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 2023 he hits .277/22/60 in 475 PAs and the O's resign him to a 2/17 deal.  I could see that.  There has to be less than a 20% chance of him getting a big, long deal in free agency at any point.

I'd agree with this if he wasn't a positionless player. In 2023 they should be turning the corner and I think they'll be looking for more pop from their DH spot. Or someone like Mountcastle will be their DH. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

How often do star players sign extensions with their current teams? I don't see the Orioles pulling out the checkbook for Mancini. I would have to go with Hunter Harvey, who is on the 40 man but doesn't have any service time yet.

Harvey may be out of baseball in 2-3 years, the way his injuries keep piling up.   I’d go with Hays.   

[interloper]

Yeah I would have to go with someone like Hays, Sisco, or Mullins. Maybe a guy like Carroll if he gets it together?

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'd agree with this if he wasn't a positionless player. In 2023 they should be turning the corner and I think they'll be looking for more pop from their DH spot. Or someone like Mountcastle will be their DH. 

Mancini will keep getting contracts as long as he can hit like he did in 2017.  If he hits like 2018 he'll be out of baseball in 2-3 years.

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Mancini will keep getting contracts as long as he can hit like he did in 2017.  If he hits like 2018 he'll be out of baseball in 2-3 years.

Oh I agree, but if the rebuild plan goes well they'll be ready to look for someone better by 2023. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you suggesting that Mancini is a star player?

Not at all. Based on the players the article picked for the other teams, they seem to be asking who is most likely to retain their young stars (Mookie Betts, Lindor, etc). The article seemed to be saying that the O's would follow that model of signing him after he hits free agency, which seems ridiculous (which is why I suggested Harvey instead but I could go with Hays or Sisco).

[scOtt]

Hunter Harvey.  Still on the 40 and still on the  DL.

[TonySoprano]

We're talking about someone who would be on the roster for 8 seasons ('18-'25) so for that reason alone, it won't be a pitcher.  Off the top of my head, Jim Johnson, Britton and Mussina could be the only three pitchers that stayed with the club for at least 8 years in the last 25+ years.   My assumption is even if Bundy were to be pitching that long, his price tag will become too expensive for an Orioles team.  Of the position players, there are a few more that stayed at least 8 years  - Ripken, Mora, Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Davis, Wieters...

I agree with the overall premise that turnover will be such that no one will be around.  Chris Davis is the sole survivor of the 2014 club, and that's because of his contract.   The core of the 2025 team will be from the drafts going forward.

 

[waroriole]

8 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Possibly Bundy, Mullins

Why would Bundy have a high probability of being on the team in 6 years? You anticipating a lengthy extension for him? Seems more likely he’d be out of baseball than with the O’s  

Mullins would be in his last year right? Just as likely as anyone else.