MLB Pipeline: Rutschman's rank if draft in 2018

[joelala]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

The only thing Wieters is guilty of is not living up to the insane hype this fan base built around him. He’s actually had an above board career for a No. 5 overall - a lot of guys simply don’t make it.

Agreed. I was joking as there have been many posters who have cited Wieters as a reason to avoid Rutschman at all costs.

[Cumberbundy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

All I have ever said was that we should wait until June to make the judgment.    It bothered me that many people were just assuming that Witt was the obvious, no-brainer choice, when he and everyone else still had a full season of baseball left to play before those decisions would be made.   Gun to my head, if we had to choose today, I’d draft Rutschman — but we don’t have to choose today.    If things unfold over the next 4+ months that make Elias choose Witt — or someone else entirely — fine by me.    It just seemed like the Witt love from certain posters was way over the top.    It’s kind of ironic how, as the offseason has progressed, Witt has fallen out of favor and now people are all over Rutschman.   He may be the guy we’d pick today, but things can change.

Did anyone ever knock Rutschman? It would be odd if people weren’t excited about a guy described as a 5 tool shortstop who was winning mvps against elite competition & hr derby’s v the most powerful kids his age. Enthusiasm is uncalled for in the book of frobby. People have always liked Rutschman, nothing changed but the mock drafts, people being excited about the guy mocked to us bothers you when it’s Witt & is ironic when it’s Rutschman........interesting. The 2-5 humans who were amped about Witt bothered you, what a toll the 2018 season took. 

 

#WittOrWittoutYouWittOrWittoutYouWeCantLiveWittOrWittoutFrobby

 

 

[Cumberbundy]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

This really can't be said enough.

It’s almost always funny when people post sentiments of this nature on a message board. Without talking about things that haven’t happened, and things we can’t change, there is no forum. Let’s all see how the season plays out before we discuss it, eh, let’s not, cant change the past, let’s talk about the future, eh, no point, need to give it time, we don’t know who will be available.

We’ll always have spin rate. 

 

 

[baltfan]

12 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

The only thing Wieters is guilty of is not living up to the insane hype this fan base built around him. He’s actually had an above board career for a No. 5 overall - a lot of guys simply don’t make it.

It wasn't just fans.  Baseball Prospectus really pushed hard saying he had one of the greatest minor league seasons of all time.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Did anyone ever knock Rutschman? It would be odd if people weren’t excited about a guy described as a 5 tool shortstop who was winning mvps against elite competition & hr derby’s v the most powerful kids his age. Enthusiasm is uncalled for in the book of frobby. People have always liked Rutschman, nothing changed but the mock drafts, people being excited about the guy mocked to us bothers you when it’s Witt & is ironic when it’s Rutschman........interesting. The 2-5 humans who were amped about Witt bothered you, what a toll the 2018 season took. 

 

#WittOrWittoutYouWittOrWittoutYouWeCantLiveWittOrWittoutFrobby

 

 

Certain people were acting as if Witt were a Harper-like, once in a generation phenom that we couldn’t possibly afford to miss out on.    I pointed out several times that while there were several scouting publications touting him as the early favorite, there was far from a consensus and in any event there was a year of baseball still to be played before making that judgment.   

Like here:  

And here:

And here:

 

[Luke-OH]

One thing worth mentioning, if Elias runs things the way the Astros did, a formula will be used to determine draft board rankings. So it won’t be about who he likes more but who the computer model projects to be the best pick. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

One thing worth mentioning, if Elias runs things the way the Astros did, a formula will be used to determine draft board rankings. So it won’t be about who he likes more but who the computer model projects to be the best pick. 

Well yes, but there’s a lot of human input that goes into that formula.   It’s not like height x weight x high school batting average.    

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well yes, but there’s a lot of human input that goes into that formula.   It’s not like height x weight x high school batting average.    

Yeah, especially for high school players, scouting reports are a big part of the equation, for college players it’s a smaller portion but still there. 

My point is they aren’t technically picking someone because Elias “likes” the guy. Perhaps he’ll crosscheck and add his report to the database. The idea though is to take the emotional component out of the selections.

[LookinUp]

 

1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:

I mean the high schooler is going to be 2 to 3 years younger and I believe that in today’s age these guys can reach the majors much quicker. If you look at the current skill level between the two and consider them to be about equal I would imagine the younger guy would have a higher future cueling.

Interesting point. I'm not sure I agree with it specifically, e.g., ceiling, but I do agree that if you can afford him when he gets his first (hopefully big) free agent contract, you're likely to control a high school guy for a longer period of his peak performance (e.g., Manny). That certainly has value. There may also be a point to be made re: ceiling, with overall probability more in favor of the college guy in general. Either way, there's definitely a case to be made to err on the side of high school players, particularly high school position players, if the scouts agree.

1 hour ago, Cy Bundy said:

It’s almost always funny when people post sentiments of this nature on a message board. Without talking about things that haven’t happened, and things we can’t change, there is no forum. Let’s all see how the season plays out before we discuss it, eh, let’s not, cant change the past, let’s talk about the future, eh, no point, need to give it time, we don’t know who will be available.

We’ll always have spin rate. 

I think you woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. I'm very happy to have all of the discussions. Part of that discussion is the reality that small sample sizes can lead to false expectations (good and bad). And of course you and I both know that the O's will take into account everything that happens before the draft rather than making their minds up right now. Either way, I'm not sure where the snark comes from. I don't think anyone was trying to shut down discussion as much as temper it with some facts about what types of things could happen over the next few months.

[El_Duderino]

7 hours ago, justcompete said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/adley-rutschman-compared-to-top-100-prospects/c-303363898?tid=151437456

"But the college season is just around the corner with Rutschman's first game with Oregon State coming on Feb. 15. And he was No. 1 on that list and, barring any unforeseen circumstances, should be in the conversation to go No. 1 overall to the Orioles."

On this current list, I could see Rutschman slotting in somewhere in that Mize-to-Bart range, so let's put him at No. 17 and move Mize to 18. As for next year, if he replicates his monster sophomore season again as a junior, I could see him cementing himself as the No. 1 pick in June and debuting on our 2020 preseason list somewhere between where Swanson and Rodgers ranked in their debut. How does the end of the Top 10 sound?

I love the idea of drafting and building around the middle of the  diamond.  This year's and next year's draft should determine how quickly we get back to competing.  Rutschman could be the "safer" of the two between him and Witt and a great place for this Front Office to start accumulating top line talent.

 

Sold. If the draft were today I’m taking Rutschman. Even without knowing anything else about him you have to add the guy with the highest perceived value. A top 20 prospect is an asset to the org, and will likely retain that value longer in the event he struggles out of the gate. 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

One thing worth mentioning, if Elias runs things the way the Astros did, a formula will be used to determine draft board rankings. So it won’t be about who he likes more but who the computer model projects to be the best pick. 

It's not going to be purely the WOPR spitting out a name.  In Astroball, there was plenty of discussion about their top pick after the computer projections were made.

[foxfield]

 

3 hours ago, joelala said:

Agreed. I was joking as there have been many posters who have cited Wieters as a reason to avoid Rutschman at all costs.

The best thing about Rutschman, IF and I mean IF he is the #1 pick.  Is either there will be a better appreciation of Matt Wieters, or less resentment that he was not actually Jesus

 

[joelala]

55 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

The best thing about Rutschman, IF and I mean IF he is the #1 pick.  Is either there will be a better appreciation of Matt Wieters, or less resentment that he was not actually Jesus

 

Hahahahahahaha so true

[Moose Milligan]

57 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

The best thing about Rutschman, IF and I mean IF he is the #1 pick.  Is either there will be a better appreciation of Matt Wieters, or less resentment that he was not actually Jesus

 

I was gonna say, maybe we'll finally get MAUER WITH POWER!!!

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I was gonna say, maybe we'll finally get MAUER WITH POWER!!!

We might get WIETERS REPEATER.