Luke’s Draft Musings

[Satyr3206]

52 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That makes sense, it's just too far from what I want to see to feel comfortable grabbing him at 42 and possibly overslot. 

Now if I was a hitting coach and I just see a fixable issue that I've fixed before, maybe I'd have a different take on it. 

I'll defer to you on where in the draft he would go. I wouldn't go overslot for someone that needs major form and swing changes.

[Luke-OH]

43 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Would you be shocked or unhappy if we drafted Witt?

I’d be surprised, not unhappy, Witt Jr is a hell of a prospect and maybe a greater chance of being a star level player who I’d love to have in the system, but I’d also have some concern because the chance of a soul-crushing bust also is notably higher with Witt than Rutschman. 

[WalkWithElias]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I’d be surprised, not unhappy, Witt Jr is a hell of a prospect and maybe a greater chance of being a star level player who I’d love to have in the system, but I’d also have some concern because the chance of a soul-crushing bust also is notably higher with Witt than Rutschman. 

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

[OregonBird]

On 4/7/2019 at 10:39 AM, Luke-OH said:

I thought it was a hand injury, did he get a bad shoulder working back from the hand injury?

Nope, you're right.  It is his hand.  Discomfort due to blood clots.  It's a real shame as he's a great kid.  During school breaks he works out at my son's baseball academy and helps the younger kids.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, OregonBird said:

Nope, you're right.  It is his hand.  Discomfort due to blood clots.  It's a real shame as he's a great kid.  During school breaks he works out at my son's baseball academy and helps the younger kids.

I appreciate that insight into the kid’s makeup, I really liked what I saw watching him pitch for team USA. I thought he was a late first round talent. Hopefully he’ll be able to get out there and show teams he’s healthy at some point. 

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

[OregonBird]

11 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

[Satyr3206]

1 hour ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

You're right about that. Adley's swing is quick and compact. Good hip turn too. I don't think Witt or anyone else is close to 1:1 right now.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

Yeah I don’t think Adley and Wieters are the same guy, I was just going with the question. I didn’t scout Wieters when he was in college and it’s easy in find Wieters flaws in hindsight, but I do agree with you that Adley’s swing is more compact with more pure bat speed. Adley is a better pure athlete too.

Statistically, Wieters hit between 1.050 and 1.085 OPS each of his 3 years at Georgia Tech. Rutschman was just .623 his freshman year but was 1.133 last year and is 1.405 so for this year. I don’t know enough about the 2007 ACC to compare quality of competition to 2019 PAC12, but Wieters put up those numbers before they switched to BBCOR bats.

[OregonBird]

Hey Luke, what do you think of HS junior Mick Abel?  He's climbing and should be Top 5 in the 2020 Draft.  

I'm always amazed at the talent in the Portland area.  

[OregonBird]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s really tough, Wieters is a little below the median outcome for a 1-1 overall pick, maybe 35-40% percentile 1-1 outcome. So I guess I’d go a different direction.

What if you could get Joe Mauer like production out of Adley?  Both guys were tremendous athletes at similar age, both sweet, efficient swings.  

No brainer.....

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, OregonBird said:

What if you could get Joe Mauer like production out of Adley?  Both guys were tremendous athletes at similar age, both sweet, efficient swings.  

No brainer.....

Not the best choice of terms when discussing Mauer.

[OregonBird]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not the best choice of terms when discussing Mauer.

Oops, yeah forgot about that. 

Fine career though.

[WalkWithElias]

3 hours ago, OregonBird said:

I've always thought Wieters had a really looooooooooong swing and didn't have great bat speed.  Together he never seemed to be able to catch up with a good fastball.

Rutschman's swing seems more efficient therefore he is better equipped to turn around a good heater.

I wasn't suggesting they were the same player. They are both college catchers with strong defensive skills and prodigious college stats who are considered among the top of the draft class overall. We know what Wieters became: A multi-time all-star and strong contributor to an upper division team. The club was in the wilderness at the time of Wieters' selection and the team didn't have a winning season until his fourth season in the league.

We'll be expecting whoever we select with the top pick to be a cornerstone going forward. Simply asking whether or not what we got from Wieters would be considered acceptable or if we'd rather roll the dice with someone higher-upside. 

[Luke-OH]

On 4/8/2019 at 6:00 PM, OregonBird said:

Hey Luke, what do you think of HS junior Mick Abel?  He's climbing and should be Top 5 in the 2020 Draft.  

I'm always amazed at the talent in the Portland area.  

I've seen a couple clips of him pitching but haven't really paid much attention, I'm completely 2019 focused right now, but I'll check him out in detail this summer I'm sure. Projectable, quick arm, more velocity coming, and he can spin it.