Rethinking the OD roster based on the Hays cut

[interloper]

Now that Elias and Co. have definitively moved in the direction of individual player development over all else with the cut of Hays and other ST standouts, it has me reversing course on several assumptions I had about the OD roster:

• I once assumed that Sisco's return to form in ST was enough to put him on the OD roster. Now I believe the exact opposite. I think it's basically a lock that he goes to AAA. Why? For the same reason that Hays and Santander did. He struggled in MLB and AAA levels last year, and a handful of ST ABs is not going to change that. The O's will want to see him put up numbers in AAA. So who gets the nod? Sucre is a lock IMO based on his excellent presence and arm behind the plate. If Wynns gets healthy in time, I could see him making the team. If not, Perez has looked good enough to be Sucre's backup until Sisco is ready, but he would need to be added to the 40-man, so I have Wynns ahead of him.
• I once assumed Araujo wouldn't make the team because Elias would have no allegiance to that Rule 5 selection. That, and he's struggled in camp. Now I believe the exact opposite. I think the O's will trend 100% toward development and retaining assets over an OD roster of the best players. He will make the club for 17 days. It's looking like April will be a little tough to watch, but I take Elias at his word that as soon as the prospects are deemed ready, they will be up. 
• "I don't want to remove anyone from the 40-man roster" is something Elias said recently, and I think the context was that he's delaying 40-man decisions as long as possible. That means it will be tough for guys like Escobar and Young Jr. to make the team, IMO. However, I still believe a guy like Alberto is DFA'd to make room for Sucre. Elias also mentioned keeping an eye on waiver claims as teams shed players at the end of ST, so clearly he will remove guys if he thinks there's better talent to be added. 
• I think Smith Jr. makes the team despite basically not doing much in ST since being acquired. Simply because 1) he's on the 40-man, 2) the O's sent down a couple other outfielders, 3) he can be optioned once a guy like Hays is ready, 4) he makes for a logical platoon with Rickard, and 5) he can play CF in a pinch. 

 

[mdbdotcom]

Interesting thoughts. We'll know soon.

[MurphDogg]

I would be very surprised if Chance Sisco isn't the starting catcher. He already has just under a full season of service time (156 days) so there is no way to play service time games, unless they were to keep him down the entire season which isn't going to happen. He has already played 139 games in AAA and 132 in AA. I'm just not sure how much more development there could be. Is he really going to benefit from getting at-bats in AAA instead of the majors? Unlike Diaz and Hays it won't save the Orioles any money for him to be at Norfolk, so I think he gets every chance to be the starting catcher.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

I would be very surprised if Chance Sisco isn't the starting catcher. He already has just under a full season of service time (156 days) so there is no way to play service time games, unless they were to keep him down the entire season which isn't going to happen. He has already played 139 games in AAA and 132 in AA. I'm just not sure how much more development there could be. Is he really going to benefit from getting at-bats in AAA instead of the majors? Unlike Diaz and Hays it won't save the Orioles any money for him to be at Norfolk, so I think he gets every chance to be the starting catcher.

I hear you (and others) on this theory, but that is saying that Elias doesn't care about development at all. Sisco has not shown he can hang at AAA. He hasn't shown he can hang at MLB either. So I think it benefits him to continue to grind at AAA and work on all aspects of his game.

Additionally, if you believe Sucre is making the team, then Wynns is the better option just based on his body of work as a player. 

There's a case for Chance to make the team - I'm not saying there isn't - it just seems like he's not ready for the bigs still. We really screwed with his development last year and I think Elias knows that.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I would be very surprised if Chance Sisco isn't the starting catcher. He already has just under a full season of service time (156 days) so there is no way to play service time games, unless they were to keep him down the entire season which isn't going to happen. He has already played 139 games in AAA and 132 in AA. I'm just not sure how much more development there could be. Is he really going to benefit from getting at-bats in AAA instead of the majors? Unlike Diaz and Hays it won't save the Orioles any money for him to be at Norfolk, so I think he gets every chance to be the starting catcher.

Great post.  Thank you.

[luismatos4prez]

I think Sisco makes the team still, with Sucre as backup.

Alberto and Wilkerson probably get DFAd. 1 spot for Sucre and 1 for a waiver claim. I think DJ Stewart still makes the team after Trumbo goes on the DL.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think Sisco makes the team still, with Sucre as backup.

Alberto and Wilkerson probably get DFAd. 1 spot for Sucre and 1 for a waiver claim. I think DJ Stewart still makes the team after Trumbo goes on the DL.

Smith  is vulnerable.  And I agree that Stewart may be back with or without Trumbo going on the DL.

[MurphDogg]

44 minutes ago, interloper said:

I hear you (and others) on this theory, but that is saying that Elias doesn't care about development at all. Sisco has not shown he can hang at AAA. He hasn't shown he can hang at MLB either. So I think it benefits him to continue to grind at AAA and work on all aspects of his game.

What about AAA makes it better for him to work there as opposed to working at the Major league level? As long as he gets the same amount of playing time, the development should be the same if not better at the Major League level due to MLB coaches. If he were to be so lousy as to merit losing the starting job at the MLB level, then sending him to AAA makes sense so he gets more playing time, but playing time at AAA isn't inherently more valuable to development than playing time in the Majors.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

What about AAA makes it better for him to work there as opposed to working at the Major league level? As long as he gets the same amount of playing time, the development should be the same if not better at the Major League level due to MLB coaches. If he were to be so lousy as to merit losing the starting job at the MLB level, then sending him to AAA makes sense so he gets more playing time, but playing time at AAA isn't inherently more valuable to development than playing time in the Majors.

Fair. There's definitely a case for him to start in MLB. For me, the case about ML coaching is a much better/accurate one than the fact you can't get another year of control out of sending him to AAA.

[Natty]

Who do we start in CF?

Rickard...

.405

.450

.595

1.045

 Mullins...

 

.125

.222

.325

.547

[interloper]

23 minutes ago, Natty said:

Who do we start in CF?

Rickard...

.405

.450

.595

1.045

 Mullins...

 

.125

.222

.325

.547

Mullins. Because they will both be playing at the same time anyway. Mullins in CF, Rickard in RF.

[Going Underground]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I hear you (and others) on this theory, but that is saying that Elias doesn't care about development at all. Sisco has not shown he can hang at AAA. He hasn't shown he can hang at MLB either. So I think it benefits him to continue to grind at AAA and work on all aspects of his game.

Additionally, if you believe Sucre is making the team, then Wynns is the better option just based on his body of work as a player. 

There's a case for Chance to make the team - I'm not saying there isn't - it just seems like he's not ready for the bigs still. We really screwed with his development last year and I think Elias knows that.

Wynns might be the better option but does he have enough time  to be ready? He is going to take live batting practice on Wednesday. Even if it goes well and he starts Wednesday night,Thursday is a day game. I don't see him coming off an oblique injury playing at night and then in the afternoon the next day.So if he plays Wednesday(big if) probably Thursday if all goes well,he then plays Friday night and Saturday night and probably not a Sunday day game, Also plays on Monday. Four games to get ready for Opening Day, is that enough time and that is if they let him play some back to back days.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Going Underground said:

Wynns might be the better option but does he have enough time  to be ready? He is going to take live batting practice on Wednesday. Even if it goes well and he starts Wednesday night,Thursday is a day game. I don't see him coming off an oblique injury playing at night and then in the afternoon the next day.So if he plays Wednesday(big if) probably Thursday if all goes well,he then plays Friday night and Saturday night and probably not a Sunday day game, Also plays on Monday. Four games to get ready for Opening Day, is that enough time and that is if they let him play some back to back days.

It's a stretch, but then why haven't they cut him already?

[Natty]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

Mullins. Because they will both be playing at the same time anyway. Mullins in CF, Rickard in RF.

All of baseball knows about Mullins weak arm now, and they are running on him. 

[Going Underground]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's a stretch, but then why haven't they cut him already?

Maybe to get some work in with the major league club. He wouldn't have been able to play till Wednesday at the earliest even in minor league camp.Get some reps with the major league club.