Why isn't Matusz signed yet?

[Sports Guy]

Well, you'll remember that I didn't panic with Wieters. I'm certainly not now - I'm not even really weighing the will he/won't he dilemma, because I think it's 80% that he'll sign.

That said, we simply disagree on the state of our minor-league arms. You may be right, of course - but I'm not uninformed about what we're looking at.

Whether Matusz is "more advanced" or not isn't all that relevant - to me, at least. Love it for its risk-reducing value, but not too shook up about it otherwise.

We agree it'll get done. On the slim chance it doesn't, I'm not going to get broken up about it.

Oh, i expect every Oriole apologist on this board to make this into everyone else's fault but the Orioles if it doesn't get done.(not saying you are going to be one of them)

[Lucky Jim]

Oh, i expect every Oriole apologist on this board to make this into everyone else's fault but the Orioles if it doesn't get done.(not saying you are going to be one of them)

No fault. I think Matusz is crazy if he doesn't sign - even more than Wieters, who wouldn't have faced the same injury risk. And - as I noted last year - Wieters would've been insane not to sign.

Matusz loses a developmental year, risks injury, and heads back into a stronger draft. A write-up I read last week said he'll never repeat as a #4 pick. Where will that leave him? Is the value of a higher signing bonus greater than the value of the bonus we're offering + a developmental year? Can't imagine any scenario where it is if we're not low-balling him.

Apologies to the Matusz family - just crunching numbers and trying to account for the negotiations.

[Sports Guy]

What should he be expecting? around 3 million I assume?

[hoosiers]

Oh, i expect every Oriole apologist on this board to make this into everyone else's fault but the Orioles if it doesn't get done.(not saying you are going to be one of them)

If someone is an apologist if Matusz does not get signed, what does that make the "full panic, pay $4M above slot" gurus here?

[baltfan]

Oh, i expect every Oriole apologist on this board to make this into everyone else's fault but the Orioles if it doesn't get done.(not saying you are going to be one of them)

The stakes just aren't as high as they used to be since the O's get the fifth pick if he doesn't sign. That gives the Orioles a ton of leverage. McPhail is very smart to use it.

[Anonymous]

The stakes just aren't as high as they used to be since the O's get the fifth pick if he doesn't sign. That gives the Orioles a ton of leverage. McPhail is very smart to use it.

I've never seen a clarification on what happens if we fail to sign this make-up pick NEXT year. Does it keep rolling over every year? Or is it a one-time make-up?

I assume it's the latter -- or else you could potentially have a huge accumulation of supplementals building up at some point down the line. Based on that assumption, it seems that while our leverage is clearly better than BM's, its' not quite as good as it would be otherwise (since it would be 100% mandatory next year that we sign the pick).

[NCRaven]

http://masnsports.com/2008/08/tick-tick-tick.html

Roch reports the pace of negotiations has picked up and was described to him as "hectic" by one of his contacts. For me, this is a good sign. It will get done.

[Lucky Jim]

What should he be expecting? around 3 million I assume?

Kevin Goldstein is predicting 4-5 million, I think. I think he'll sign for around $4 million, myself. But it's just a guess (and what do I know)?

As I said, if it turns out that the O's low-balled him, then I'll be upset with the FO. If it turns out they offered something around $3.5 - 4 million and it doesn't get done, it won't be the O's fault this didn't happen.

[Lucky Jim]

http://masnsports.com/2008/08/tick-tick-tick.html

Roch reports the pace of negotiations has picked up and was described to him as "hectic" by one of his contacts. For me, this is a good sign. It will get done.

I agree. Absolutely. Even my 80% estimate of his signing was actually way-conservative (as compared to what I really think.)

By the way, interesting that Matusz sent Tony an email. I don't think anyone on here - and this definitely includes me - thinks ill of Matusz for the negotiations dragging. And, just to be clear, my accusation of "insanity" isn't really a criticism; I'm just trying to crunch the numbers and risk in my head and figure out what the rational thing to do is. It's just my version of rationality, though. And I can't begin to take into account all sorts of subjective valuations that also factor.

[Tony-OH]

Question for you Tony....Something I've been wondering about. I understand there is money alotted for the draft and they like to work within a budget, but shouldn't any team, especially a team trying to rebuild through the system like the O's are, just put out the extra 1-2 million it takes to give guys like Brady and Landers the extra couple thousand to get them to sign?

I know you're not implying if we sign Matusz we can't sign those guys but still, why is it such a big deal? Obviously you can't always give the player exactly what they want even if it's unreasonable but at this point I think the player should have more leverage than the O's when it comes to these situations considering the position that the organization is in right now.

it really comes down to value for the money. The Orioles can not afford to just waste money on high profile guys so they need to be smart. Jarrett Martin will not be signed because he wants $700,000 which is more than Bundy and even though the Orioles like him, they don't think he's worth that money, especially with the concerns about his command.

All I was saying is if you think Landers is worth $400K and he wants $600k (I'm making these numbers up on Landers because I don't know) and the Orioles don't sign Matusz, use that money to give Landers the extra money. I signing Landers, Brady and Martin better than signing Matusz, especially if he doesn't come down from his current demands?

I just think it's an interesting question to ask and I don't have the answer for it.

[Sports Guy]

Kevin Goldstein is predicting 4-5 million, I think. I think he'll sign for around $4 million, myself. But it's just a guess (and what do I know)?

As I said, if it turns out that the O's low-balled him, then I'll be upset with the FO. If it turns out they offered something around $3.5 - 4 million and it doesn't get done, it won't be the O's fault this didn't happen.

He thinks he is going to get that far above slot?

[hoosiers]

Kevin Goldstein is predicting 4-5 million, I think. I think he'll sign for around $4 million, myself. But it's just a guess (and what do I know)?

As I said, if it turns out that the O's low-balled him, then I'll be upset with the FO. If it turns out they offered something around $3.5 - 4 million and it doesn't get done, it won't be the O's fault this didn't happen.

We'll see. I've laid out parameters in other posts and find the $4M number very difficult to understand as pitchers have been drafted fourth overall the past two drafts and neither received over $2.8M. Last year's third overall pick received $3.2M. Perhaps Matusz is rated a good bit higher than all three of the above players, but Reynolds and Vitters were drafted on merit.

IMO, anything north of $3.25M to $3.5M is overpaying relative to what Vitters, Reynolds and Moskos received. I would like to meet the prospect that turns down $3.25M and heads back to school.

[Lucky Jim]

We'll see. I've laid out parameters in other posts and find the $4M number very difficult to understand as pitchers have been drafted fourth overall the past two drafts and neither received over $2.8M. Last year's third overall pick received $3.2M. Perhaps Matusz is rated a good bit higher than all three of the above players, but Reynolds and Vitters were drafted on merit.

IMO, anything north of $3.25M to $3.5M is overpaying relative to what Vitters, Reynolds and Moskos received. I would like to meet the prospect that turns down $3.25M and heads back to school.

That's fair - I was just parroting Goldstein and - frankly - don't know much about slot particulars. You can adjust down my "insanity" numbers to account for the fact that I shot high on slot, though. My basic point remains the same (and is, in the end, kind of worthless until we know what the O's have offered.)

But, I think it's safe to say that Matusz thinks he IS considerably better than Vitters, Reynolds and Moskos.

[Hank Scorpio]

it really comes down to value for the money. The Orioles can not afford to just waste money on high profile guys so they need to be smart. Jarrett Martin will not be signed because he wants $700,000 which is more than Bundy and even though the Orioles like him, they don't think he's worth that money, especially with the concerns about his command.

All I was saying is if you think Landers is worth $400K and he wants $600k (I'm making these numbers up on Landers because I don't know) and the Orioles don't sign Matusz, use that money to give Landers the extra money. I signing Landers, Brady and Martin better than signing Matusz, especially if he doesn't come down from his current demands?

I just think it's an interesting question to ask and I don't have the answer for it.

I guess I just don't understand why we can't sign them all? I mean, is $700K fair for Martin if Matusz doesn't sign?

I understand that there are limits to what we'll pay and value assigned to particular players, but if you can "never have too much pitching," let's step up to the plate here!!!!

[Tony-OH]

I guess I just don't understand why we can't sign them all? I mean, is $700K fair for Martin if Matusz doesn't sign?

I understand that there are limits to what we'll pay and value assigned to particular players, but if you can "never have too much pitching," let's step up to the plate here!!!!

But you can't just spend spend spend. If the orioles thought Martin was worth $700k, I'm pretty sure they would give it to him. They don't. It's bad business and a slippery slope to get into the mode of "overpay" everyone.