Why isn't Matusz signed yet?

[connja]

But you can't just spend spend spend. If the orioles thought Martin was worth $700k, I'm pretty sure they would give it to him. They don't. It's bad business and a slippery slope to get into the mode of "overpay" everyone.

This is absolutely true - if you overpay a few guys this year just b/c you don't sign BM and have a few extra bucks to spend, then everyone next year is going to want to be overpaid. Very slippery slope and will kill you in future negotiations.

That said, I wonder if BM is looking at what we gave Weiters last year as the 5th pick and is thinking he went one slot higher and is basing his demands on that. That would hold to his "not set any records" statements, but still could be out of line with O's expectations.

I think that would be bad business on his part, but perhaps part of the issue.

[Hank Scorpio]

But you can't just spend spend spend. If the orioles thought Martin was worth $700k, I'm pretty sure they would give it to him. They don't. It's bad business and a slippery slope to get into the mode of "overpay" everyone.

Yeah, I know there are limits.

Honestly, I'm just happy to see this approach starting to take form. It's no wonder we've been so far behind for so many years.

[Fan4Life]

This is absolutely true - if you overpay a few guys this year just b/c you don't sign BM and have a few extra bucks to spend, then everyone next year is going to want to be overpaid. Very slippery slope and will kill you in future negotiations.

That said, I wonder if BM is looking at what we gave Weiters last year as the 5th pick and is thinking he went one slot higher and is basing his demands on that. That would hold to his "not set any records" statements, but still could be out of line with O's expectations.

I think that would be bad business on his part, but perhaps part of the issue.

Excellent analysis and a very good thread to read overall.

[Mackus]

I think that would be bad business on his part, but perhaps part of the issue.

It'd probably be worse business on his part to not at least try to get that much money.

Having the deadline be fairly close to end time of the draft means he can "hold out" for as long as possible trying to get the most money possible, see what the O's final offer is, and then take it.

His only real risk here is if the O's get so frustrated with waiting that they pull their offer, but given that they signed Wieters at 11:59 last year, I don't think that will be the case.

[hoosiers]

It'd probably be worse business on his part to not at least try to get that much money.

Having the deadline be fairly close to end time of the draft means he can "hold out" for as long as possible trying to get the most money possible, see what the O's final offer is, and then take it.

His only real risk here is if the O's get so frustrated with waiting that they pull their offer, but given that they signed Wieters at 11:59 last year, I don't think that will be the case.

Well, every prospect can do this .... which many teams try to understand as much about the expected signing bonus before the draft as possible. It appears the Os feel the actions of the Matusz camp are not in sync with what was communicated before the draft.

[Pruke]

it seems draftees fall into one of these categories:

1. Those who they speak with, get an idea of what it would take to sign them before drafting them, then draft and sign them for roughly that amount

2. Those who they speak with, get an idea of what it would take to sign - but then they back out for more money (perhaps they want to go to college, perhaps they want to leverage someone else's dotted line)

3. Those who they don't speak with, don't necessarily have an idea of what they would sign for, but they reach for them anyways and find out they are asking for out of slot, etc...

4. Those they talk to, think they have an idea of the range, draft and then find out they need to negotiate further - ala early round picks (1-2) who are traditionally a little tougher to get on board...

5. Those who they speak with and know they don't want to draft based on their expectations of money

No outstanding analysis here, but Matusz was probably a case where they thought they had a range and the subsequent signings (or the ongoing unsignings) affect the overall negotiation path. I sometimes think this is what precludes signing some of the other 'iffys' if you would...

[Aloe]

This is in today's Baltimore Sun.

The fourth pick last year, Clemson left-handed pitcher Daniel Moskos, agreed to a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates that included a $2.5 million signing bonus. However, it is believed Matusz is seeking a major league deal worth more than twice that number.

Brian if your reading this let me just say that there is no way the Orioles should give you a major league deal. They tried that with Adam Loewen and it was a terrible failure. These guys and their agents shoud be up front with their demands so that teams can make an informed choice as to weather or not to pick them.

[Lucky Jim]

This is in today's Baltimore Sun.

The fourth pick last year, Clemson left-handed pitcher Daniel Moskos, agreed to a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates that included a $2.5 million signing bonus. However, it is believed Matusz is seeking a major league deal worth more than twice that number.

Brian if your reading this let me just say that there is no way the Orioles should give you a major league deal. They tried that with Adam Loewen and it was a terrible failure. These guys and their agents shoud be up front with their demands so that teams can make an informed choice as to weather or not to pick them.

Apples and oranges. One, Moskos was a convenience-signing. They knew they'd get him for slot. Two, Matusz is far advanced of Loewen. Far. Like, really far.

[Sports Guy]

Apples and oranges. One, Moskos was a convenience-signing. They knew they'd get him for slot. Two, Matusz is far advanced of Loewen. Far. Like, really far.

Yea, the ML deal is really no big deal for college players...Unless they get hurt, they should be up quickly anyway.

The injury factor is the one thing...There should be some kind of language you can put into the contract about DL time in terms of when you need to be on the team or not.

[allstar1579]

Yea, the ML deal is really no big deal for college players...Unless they get hurt, they should be up quickly anyway.

The injury factor is the one thing...There should be some kind of language you can put into the contract about DL time in terms of when you need to be on the team or not.

It's still a problem in the sense you have no options for them anymore. If something happened and he needed an extended period in the minors to rebound from an injury like Liriano, or if he is just getting SHELLED at the ML level for his first 15 starts or so, you'd like to be able to send him to AAA to work it out instead of wrecking his confidence completely. See: Olson, Garrett.

You can't do anything about DL time because that is a major league rule, its not something you can work around, the whole drawback of a major league contract is that you have to give up all of your options to send them to the minors later. Thats where we are stuck with Loewen right now, because a) we would have sent him to the minors to begin this season coming back from an injury, but couldn't and b) we can't send him to the minors to work on his hitting comeback, he has to be non-tendered and then resigned in order to get him to the minors.

[Crazysilver03]

It's still a problem in the sense you have no options for them anymore. If something happened and he needed an extended period in the minors to rebound from an injury like Liriano, or if he is just getting SHELLED at the ML level for his first 15 starts or so, you'd like to be able to send him to AAA to work it out instead of wrecking his confidence completely. See: Olson, Garrett.

You can't do anything about DL time because that is a major league rule, its not something you can work around, the whole drawback of a major league contract is that you have to give up all of your options to send them to the minors later. Thats where we are stuck with Loewen right now, because a) we would have sent him to the minors to begin this season coming back from an injury, but couldn't and b) we can't send him to the minors to work on his hitting comeback, he has to be non-tendered and then resigned in order to get him to the minors.

If Matusz signed a major league contract, he would have four option years. If it takes Matusz that long (disregarding injury) then he isnt worth the money now.

[allstar1579]

If Matusz signed a major league contract, he would have four option years. If it takes Matusz that long (disregarding injury) then he isnt worth the money now.

I was under the impression that part of the agreement for the Major league deal is that each year, starting with when they sign, at the beginning of the season, the club has to exercise one option so that they are gone as soon as possible, which is why Loewen had to be with the club by a certain day. Same thing would go for BM, so first would be used right away, second would be used to start 2009 which would be his first minor league season (he won't be called up), more than likely would start 2010 in the minors which would be option 3, and then even if he came up mid-year that season or to begin 2011, he would have no more options that season to be sent down in the case of what I had mentioned before. This is why it is worse to give a ML deal to a HS guy, but you really don't want to give it to a college guy either. What if he misses a year due to a shoulder injury? At that point he has to be on the ML roster, sight unseen, no matter if he is ready or not, or be exposed to waivers.

This scenario should be compared less to Loewen and more to Guthrie. Guthrie was drafted (for the 3rd time) in 2002, this time by Cleveland. He could have gone back for his senior year, but CLE signed him to a ML $4 mil deal as the 22nd pick. (talk about over slot). He was unhittable in AA, but hit a roadblock in AAA, and got battered in the Majors for a cup of coffee. Went back to AAA to work on things, took him another season to get it under control, and when he did he had no options left. Hence why CLE had to leave him exposed to waivers where we stole him. Do we want to be that team that loses BM to PIT on waivers in 4 years to watch him become a 26 year old all star???

Link

[bpeerce]

Apples and oranges. One, Moskos was a convenience-signing. They knew they'd get him for slot. Two, Matusz is far advanced of Loewen. Far. Like, really far.

Looking at Matusz's record this year at San Diego he didn't face many grade A programs except Oklahoma St and Fresno St. San Diego played USC and Oregon St and he didn't face them - blowing away Hawaii Hilo doesn't give me goosebumps. The point is he wasn't saved for BIG games. One complaint was that he pitches off his breaking ball rather than fastball.

[Crazysilver03]

I was under the impression that part of the agreement for the Major league deal is that each year, starting with when they sign, at the beginning of the season, the club has to exercise one option so that they are gone as soon as possible, which is why Loewen had to be with the club by a certain day. Same thing would go for BM, so first would be used right away, second would be used to start 2009 which would be his first minor league season (he won't be called up), more than likely would start 2010 in the minors which would be option 3, and then even if he came up mid-year that season or to begin 2011, he would have no more options that season to be sent down in the case of what I had mentioned before. This is why it is worse to give a ML deal to a HS guy, but you really don't want to give it to a college guy either. What if he misses a year due to a shoulder injury? At that point he has to be on the ML roster, sight unseen, no matter if he is ready or not, or be exposed to waivers.

This scenario should be compared less to Loewen and more to Guthrie. Guthrie was drafted (for the 3rd time) in 2002, this time by Cleveland. He could have gone back for his senior year, but CLE signed him to a ML $4 mil deal as the 22nd pick. (talk about over slot). He was unhittable in AA, but hit a roadblock in AAA, and got battered in the Majors for a cup of coffee. Went back to AAA to work on things, took him another season to get it under control, and when he did he had no options left. Hence why CLE had to leave him exposed to waivers where we stole him. Do we want to be that team that loses BM to PIT on waivers in 4 years to watch him become a 26 year old all star???

Link

You are correct. If Matusz signed a major league contract this Friday, he would have to be optioned, using one for this season.

What you are leaving out is that he will have four option years. One for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

If he is injured, store him on the major league DL.

[allstar1579]

You are correct. If Matusz signed a major league contract this Friday, he would have to be optioned, using one for this season.

What you are leaving out is that he will have four option years. One for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011.

If he is injured, store him on the major league DL.

I guess you really didn't read my response...I mentioned and accounted for all of that. It's not an issue of where to store him if he is injured, its the fact that he misses an entire year of development. Those options for his first 3 professional seasons (3 because he wont play this year but has to use one anyway) are gone whether he plays or not. So if he misses say, 2010 because of elbow surgery or something, then comes back 2 months into 2011, he has no options left when he hits the majors for the FIRST time.

Even if you don't take injuries into account, 3 years is not a whole lot of time even for someone who is supposed to be as advanced as he is. Look at Guthrie, really highly touted out of HS and then out of Stanford. He has an off year, has to readjust and then gets to the majors out of spring training more because he can't be optioned than because he earned the team spot. Then he gets roughed up, exposed to waivers and we steal him. Look at him now. Do you want to see that repeated because you wanted to give a guy a ML contract as opposed to keeping his options in tact JUST IN CASE?

Arietta came out of college, has dominated so far, and he if he had signed a ML deal, he would have no options left after next year. Would you want to risk that as dominant as a guy is in the minors, he can play in the majors without risk of needing to go back down for a bit? As good as Olson's numbers were in the minors, would you wish that on him?