Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[bpilktree]

He has played some at third as well .  I’d let him play about third games at first third at third third in left let him be a zobrist type.  Play all three position about twice a week and it lets him play 6 days a week.

 

[ChuckS]

36 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

He has played some at third as well .  I’d let him play about third games at first third at third third in left let him be a zobrist type.  Play all three position about twice a week and it lets him play 6 days a week.

 

I think he's done with third.  It's too important of a position to be inadequate at.  They don't even want Nunez playing there, who is a better defender than Mountcastle. 

I suggested to try him at 2B in Norfolk, but I have my doubts that he will be viable there.  He should be able to handle LF. 

[NCRaven]

Think he could be an above average first baseman.  Leave him there for half a season and see how he does.

[Ohfan67]

Named International League Player of the Week. Good for him. Good for Orioles. Good for us. I hope he keeps raking. 

[Ohfan67]

I do wish Mountcastle would walk more. Stinks that he doesn't. Mountcastle has walked the same number of times (81) in his 400+ minor league career as Rylan Bannon walked last season. Mountcastle's stats look a lot like a slightly lite version of Mancini's minor league numbers. 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I do wish Mountcastle would walk more. Stinks that he doesn't. Mountcastle has walked the same number of times (81) in his 400+ minor league career as Rylan Bannon walked last season. Mountcastle's stats look a lot like a slightly lite version of Mancini's minor league numbers. 

Mountcastle has been 2+ years younger than Mancini at every stop.   

I agree about the walks.   But I like his chances to be an Adam Jones level hitter in the majors.   

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mountcastle has been 2+ years younger than Mancini at every stop.   

I agree about the walks.   But I like his chances to be an Adam Jones level hitter in the majors.   

I totally agree about the age and thought about adding a disclaimer...but I don't think Mountcastle is ever going to walk. I think Jones and Mancini are actually good comps in terms of ceiling. A peak Jones at first base or DH would be great for three or four years. 

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Mountcastle has been 2+ years younger than Mancini at every stop.   

I agree about the walks.   But I like his chances to be an Adam Jones level hitter in the majors.   

Jones is a good comp for Mountcastle offensively, though Mountcastle could have some peak years better with power.

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Jones is a good comp for Mountcastle offensively, though Mountcastle could have some peak years better with power.

I haven't done the very limited work it takes to confirm this is true, but my eyeball test says Mountcastle strikes out about 75% as often as Jones did in the minors. I think he'll have better contact rates than Jones had, which bodes well since he doesn't have the same positional value that Jones did.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I haven't done the very limited work it takes to confirm this is true, but my eyeball test says Mountcastle strikes out about 75% as often as Jones did in the minors. I think he'll have better contact rates than Jones had, which bodes well since he doesn't have the same positional value that Jones did.

Jones - 20.4% K/PA

Mountcastle - 19.2% K/PA.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jones - 20.4% K/PA

Mountcastle - 19.2% K/PA.

Has the K rate in the minors increased as much as it has in the majors in the last decade?

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Has the K rate in the minors increased as much as it has in the majors in the last decade?

I think the answer is probably yes.  In the International League the K rate was 7.1 per 9 in 2007 and it’s 8.4 this year.   (I used 2007 since that was Adam’s last year in the minors, even though he wasn’t playing in the IL.)

[LookinUp]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jones - 20.4% K/PA

Mountcastle - 19.2% K/PA.

Lies, damn lies, statistics and eyeball tests!

These stats surprised me, so I went back and looked a little more closely. Your stats are correct, of course. Interestingly to me at least, Jones K/game rate (which I made up) was just over 90% (442 Ks in 489 games). Mountcastle's is just over 80% (352 Ks in 436 games). That was the simple eyeball test I had done. 

As Corn points out and you just supported, more context is helpful. League rates, age/level, etc. all matter. Jones was 1-2 years younger when he first got to AAA, where he played the better part of 2 seasons in the PCL. His overall minors OPS was better too (all same caveats apply). 

Bottom line for me is this actually diminishes my view of Mountcastle. I still like his profile, but don't necessarily like it as much as I did before about an hour ago. Without positional value, he looks like a useful but not great player unless his production is still ascending. 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Lies, damn lies, statistics and eyeball tests!

These stats surprised me, so I went back and looked a little more closely. Your stats are correct, of course. Interestingly to me at least, Jones K/game rate (which I made up) was just over 90% (442 Ks in 489 games). Mountcastle's is just over 80% (352 Ks in 436 games). That was the simple eyeball test I had done. 

As Corn points out and you just supported, more context is helpful. League rates, age/level, etc. all matter. Jones was 1-2 years younger when he first got to AAA, where he played the better part of 2 seasons in the PCL. His overall minors OPS was better too (all same caveats apply). 

Bottom line for me is this actually diminishes my view of Mountcastle. I still like his profile, but don't necessarily like it as much as I did before about an hour ago. Without positional value, he looks like a useful but not great player unless his production is still ascending. 

Like Jones, he’s been pretty young at every level (Jones was even a bit younger).    I’d be pretty disappointed if he didn’t turn out to be as good a hitter as Mancini, and at the same time I’d be surprised if he turned out to be as good as, say, Jose Abreu.    I’m hoping for somewhere in the middle of those two.  

[LookinUp]

Reminds me of how good of a prospect Jones was too. Very young at every level. Profiled as athletic CF with a plus arm. Just didn't have great walk/k numbers.