Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[SurhoffRules]

If Means finishes strong I think he's got as good of a shot as anyone at AL Rookie of the Year. Just looking at bWAR as a bellwether, Tampa's Lowe has a slight edge (3.7 to 3.6) but he's out for the rest of the season. Houston's Alvarez could be in the conversion (3.0) but he's a DH/1B type with a below average glove.  I'm not really seeing another AL rookie pitcher that jumps out at me this year and some other just don't have the games yet to accrue the numbers that would put them in the conversation (Bichette, Guerrero Jr.).

Two or three more solid starts for Means and he could be the first Os RoY since...Gregg Olson in '89.

[canonfaz]

59 minutes ago, Curse of the Bamdino said:

Nice to see him put together strong back-to-back starts after that little hiccup coming out of the ASB. He's not going to be an ace or TORer for anyone, but I believe he can certainly be a serviceable starter in this league/division.

He could be a great mid rotation piece on a contending team. He reminds me of a left handed Miguel Gonzalez (with maybe a little more upside).

[DrungoHazewood]

52 minutes ago, SurhoffRules said:

If Means finishes strong I think he's got as good of a shot as anyone at AL Rookie of the Year. Just looking at bWAR as a bellwether, Tampa's Lowe has a slight edge (3.7 to 3.6) but he's out for the rest of the season. Houston's Alvarez could be in the conversion (3.0) but he's a DH/1B type with a below average glove.  I'm not really seeing another AL rookie pitcher that jumps out at me this year and some other just don't have the games yet to accrue the numbers that would put them in the conversation (Bichette, Guerrero Jr.).

Two or three more solid starts for Means and he could be the first Os RoY since...Gregg Olson in '89.

I think it's possible he wins the award, but he would be one of the weaker starting pitcher ROYs ever.  Michael Fulmer is pretty comparable (2016, 11-7, 3.06, 159 innings).  It's not too unusual for a ROY to not qualify for the ERA title as a starter, but they usually have better W/L records and ERAs.  Jacob DeGrom only pitched 140 innings but had a 2.69 ERA.  Dontrelle Willis just missed the 162 inning threshold, but was 14-6 on the WS champs with a crazy delivery and personality.  Dave Righetti only threw 105 innings, but it was the strike year and he had a 2.05 ERA.

My bet is on Alvarez.  He's on a very good team, he's 22, and he's hitting .310/.408/.657.  It'll be a little like McCovey in '59.  It'll be a split vote, and his high level of offensive production on a winning team will win out over lesser production from players with more games.  

[LookinUp]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My bet is on Alvarez.  He's on a very good team, he's 22, and he's hitting .310/.408/.657.  It'll be a little like McCovey in '59.  It'll be a split vote, and his high level of offensive production on a winning team will win out over lesser production from players with more games.  

Yeah, the 1.065 OPS will win out. People get caught up on WAR. I don't think that statistic holds the same value in ML circles, particularly when comparing vastly different positions.

[SurhoffRules]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My bet is on Alvarez.  He's on a very good team, he's 22, and he's hitting .310/.408/.657.  It'll be a little like McCovey in '59.  It'll be a split vote, and his high level of offensive production on a winning team will win out over lesser production from players with more games.  

Upon closer inspection I now realize his 3 WAR is only based on 67 games. I now agree that Means chances are not as rosey as I was thinking.

Still, a good season from him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah, the 1.065 OPS will win out. People get caught up on WAR. I don't think that statistic holds the same value in ML circles, particularly when comparing vastly different positions.

Barring a brutal slump to close out the season it’s Alvarez’s award to lose. He hits like a young Frank Thomas. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, SurhoffRules said:

Upon closer inspection I now realize his 3 WAR is only based on 67 games. I now agree that Means chances are not as rosey as I was thinking.

Still, a good season from him.

Top three finish in ROY voting is pretty good for a player who wasn’t expected to make the 25 man roster of this Orioles team. 

[SurhoffRules]

5 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Top three finish in ROY voting is pretty good for a player who wasn’t expected to make the 25 man roster of this Orioles team. 

Just for fun, the last 20 years worth of Orioles that received any ROY votes.  Go Rodrigo.

Year	Player		Vote Pts	1st Place Votes	Rank
2017	Trey Mancini	31		0		3/5
2012	Wei-Yin Chen	2		0		4/5
2010	Brian Matusz	3		0		5/5
2006	Nick Markakis	7		1		6/7
2004	Daniel Cabrera	29		0		3/10
2002	Rodrigo Lopez	97		9		2/11
2002	Jorge Julio	14		0		3/11
1998	Sidney Ponson	1		0		5(T)/6

 

[Moose Milligan]

Tough luck loss last night.  But I'm a believer that these things come around, he'll get one in the win column for a game where he didn't pitch particularly well.  

Glad to see that he's stringing together good starts.

[Yardball85]

59 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

He could be a great mid rotation piece on a contending team. He reminds me of a left handed Miguel Gonzalez (with maybe a little more upside).

That is a very good comparison.  I loved Miggy, he was the ultimate "cold-killer."  Pitched great at Yankee Stadium too, playoffs included.

[OFFNY]

2 hours ago, Curse of the Bamdino said:

 

Nice to see him put together strong back-to-back starts after that little hiccup coming out of the ASB. 

He's not going to be an ace or TOR-er for anyone, but I believe that he can certainly be a serviceable starter in this league/division.

 

o

 

It's actually his 3rd consecutive very solid start, and his 4th consecutive rather impressive start.

 

o

11 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

In his last 4 outings combined, he has a 2.45 ERA and an 0.779 WHIP with 2 Walks and 19 Strikeouts over 25.67 Innings Pitched.

 

o

 

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah, the 1.065 OPS will win out. People get caught up on WAR. I don't think that statistic holds the same value in ML circles, particularly when comparing vastly different positions.

I'd hope the voters might notice that 3 WAR in 67 games works out to MVP-level production in a full season.  

Comparing production across different positions and contexts is pretty much WAR's reason to exist.  Systematically putting different contributions in context and assigning value is WAR, and it usually does it better than eyeballing and guessing whether 140 innings of a 3.50 in OPACY is better than a 1.000 OPS in Houston in 67 games.

[jamalshw]

I'm really encouraged that Means has bounced back from his injuries and performance hiccup. I'm starting to think he could be a solid No.3 going forward. That would be a HUGE gain, particularly if at least one of Rodriguez or Hall could materialize into a top of the rotation arm. Add in a couple other arms from this year's Bowie staff and we have a nice start to a rotation--and bullpen. If Elias and company can find the right guys from outside the organization to supplement via free agency/trade we may be on to something in a few years.

As to Mean's chances at ROY, I think they're about zero. I think Alvarez runs away with the award. Means may steal a first place vote or two and should finish in the top-3 though. That's still a good sign for the future.

[LookinUp]

18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd hope the voters might notice that 3 WAR in 67 games works out to MVP-level production in a full season.  

Comparing production across different positions and contexts is pretty much WAR's reason to exist.  Systematically putting different contributions in context and assigning value is WAR, and it usually does it better than eyeballing and guessing whether 140 innings of a 3.50 in OPACY is better than a 1.000 OPS in Houston in 67 games.

All true, that's the goal, but flaws are becoming more apparent over time. WAR isn't going to consistently differentiate meaningfully between a 3.0 and a 3.2 player, IMO, because of the flawed defensive inputs.

Either way, it's immaterial here, where one player is essentially "worth" double the WAR as the other player over equal time.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

All true, that's the goal, but flaws are becoming more apparent over time. WAR isn't going to consistently differentiate meaningfully between a 3.0 and a 3.2 player, IMO, because of the flawed defensive inputs.

Either way, it's immaterial here, where one player is essentially "worth" double the WAR as the other player over equal time.

WAR's value isn't because it can finely differentiate tenths of a win.  It can't.  We don't have that level of information at the required accuracy. 

Its value is summing up a variety of contributions in a various contexts into a single number, vastly simplifying countless kinds of comparisons and analyses.  If two players are separated by 0.2 wins your best way to interpret that is they're almost indistinguishable in overall value.