Promising Starter Prospects Bring Hope for the Future

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

 

Scott McGregor was 3-5 in 1977 with a 4.42 ERA. But the next season, he improved to 15-13 and a 3.32 ERA. He said he was changed by some advice he got from Weaver and Orioles pitching coach George Bamberger.

"When I came up, I was throwing everything hard -- my fastball hard, my slider hard," McGregor said. "Earl told me I needed to work at another speed. He said he wanted my curve to be in the 60s and to use my changeup more."

He worked with Weaver and heeded his advice. He said his fastball dropped from about 91 mph to the high 80s, but was more effective because he was changing speeds. His changeup also became his best pitch. But it wasn't easy learning how to pitch differently.

Sweet, I don't really accept McGregor talking about his own fastball as evidence but thanks for the information.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, tntoriole said:

Strike out rates today are not trending up compared to the 1970s?   And who throws 103?  One pitcher?     Not any pitcher on this team in the last 50 years.   

Of course they are, and of course part of that is on the hitters.  But you tried to say all of it is on the hitters and that isn't accurate.

As for who throws 103, Chapman has hit 105, Hicks throws 105.

As for the Orioles, I remember Gausman hitting 101 and Hunter 100 with the O's.

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sweet, I don't really accept McGregor talking about his own fastball as evidence but thanks for the information.

I am fortunate enough to have met and gotten to know Scott McGregor....believe me when I tell you, he is a very truthful person.    I will go back to find when he was drafted.   He threw even harder....because even then, I suspect he was not the first round and 14th overall pick in the draft in 1972 by the Yankees as a pitcher if he couldn't break 90.  

 

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course they are, and of course part of that is on the hitters.  But you tried to say all of it is on the hitters and that isn't accurate.

As for who throws 103, Chapman has hit 105, Hicks throws 105.

As for the Orioles, I remember Gausman hitting 101 and Hunter 100 with the O's.

Yeah, I am sure Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron would have been just terrified by Kevin Gausman and Tommy Hunter.....lol.

[ReclaimTheCrown]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I stated that if McGregor had a bump in his K rate to something in the 6 range that he would be viable.   I would be interested in any evidence that he used to throw over 90 however.

Now the Phillies were mentioned.  Obviously the 1983 Philies were a lot more successful compared to their peers than the 2018 Phillies.  But strictly from a power perspective it goes the other way.   Yes, Mike Schmidt hit 40 HR in 1983.  Care to guess how many other Phillies had 20 home runs(0)?  10(3)?   On the 2018 Phillies they had four players with 20 and seven in double digits. 

The 83 Orioles had two hitters with 20+ HR, and only three more in double digits.  In comparison, despite the trades and huge amount of suck the 2018 Orioles had the same number of 20 HR hitters and five more in double digits.

It was a significantly different game.

And I think that’s fair. I’m just saying that I think it’s quite possible he would get that bump in today’s game given the emphasis on K’s from a pitching standpoint and hitter’s aggression and willingness to strike out. 

It’s definitely a different game though. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Yeah, I am sure Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron would have been just terrified by Kevin Gausman and Tommy Hunter.....lol.

You asked about velocity right?

I love how you keep mentioning inner circle HoF players.  No word on how Frank Torre would do.  By concentrating on the top .1% you are missing out on an important issue I tried to relay to you.  Your average hitter is a lot more dangerous.   

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You asked about velocity right?

I love how you keep mentioning inner circle HoF players.  No word on how Frank Torre would do.  By concentrating on the top .1% you are missing out on an important issue I tried to relay to you.  Your average hitter is a lot more dangerous.   

 At the same time, you cited 103 mph as the reason older generation hitters would not do well today.  Exaggeration goes both ways in making a point about which I too was trying to communicate...i.e.  I do believe that many 1980s era players could certainly play well and thrive in today's game.     And that some of the pitching skill sets today might even be more valuable in today's game than they were back then.   Even if the velocity is not the same.         I certainly accept that the game is played differently today, different after the steroid era, and that the athletes playing it perform those aspects of the game differently than their predecessors.  

Still haven't found the speed gun ratings on Scott in high school, but I suspect they were pretty good....I might just ask him...  

Scott McGregor, El Segundo (Calif.), 1972
Although a teammate of Hall of Famer George Brett (as a sophomore and junior), it was McGregor who garnered more headlines during his three-year career under El Segundo legendary coach John Stevenson. McGregor was a three-time All-CIF selection and was twice named Player of the Year. He was also a Rawlings All-American as a senior. He set section records (which still stand) for career wins (51), career shutouts (20), shutouts in a season (9), and consecutive no-hitters (2). He also set the section record for career strikeouts (which has since been broken) with 496. He was the No. 14 overall pick in 1972 draft by the Yankees, but he was eventually traded to Baltimore. 

[Can_of_corn]

So few left handed pitchers threw 91 back in the late 70's that I just find it unlikely from a statistical standpoint.  I'm not old enough to remember late 70's McGregor.  The guy I remember in the 80's was more of a junkballer.

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So few left handed pitchers threw 91 back in the late 70's that I just find it unlikely from a statistical standpoint.  I'm not old enough to remember late 70's McGregor.  The guy I remember in the 80's was more of a junkballer.

Can you give us a reference about where the evidence is for how "very few left handed pitchers threw 91 back in the late 70s"?     Maybe my statistical search is not looking in the same place.    

Yeah, the junk baller who won our last World Series game probably ever.    Just watch the video and honestly tell me you think this guy couldn't pitch today. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Can you give us a reference about where the evidence is for how "very few left handed pitchers threw 91 back in the late 70s"?     Maybe my statistical search is not looking in the same place.    

Yeah, the junk baller who won our last World Series game probably ever.    Just watch the video and honestly tell me you think this guy couldn't pitch today. 

 

 

Don't have anything on hand.  Not sure where to look or even if there is a trustworthy source for the information. 

I'm mostly going be fallible memory of how hard guys threw and how, for the most part, left handed velocity is a couple ticks behind right handed velocity.

As for your video, sure he looked good.  You chose a start in which he threw a shutout.  I remember DCab looking really good when he threw that one hitter against the Yankees.

My point has been, this whole time, that you can't make it in the majors today with the K rate that McGregor had when he pitched.

If you would like to show me guys have sustained success in today's game with a K rate under 4...

[Greg Pappas]

Guys, I'm no moderator, but the interesting debate about McGregor, et al, has (IMHO) reached critical mass. 

Back to the topic, I'd be interested to see how everyone ranks the starter prospects. If you can't go 1-15 or whatever, perhaps tiers? 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Could someone maybe post stats for this season and keep them updated as the season progresses?

[tntoriole]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't have anything on hand.  Not sure where to look or even if there is a trustworthy source for the information. 

I'm mostly going be fallible memory of how hard guys threw and how, for the most part, left handed velocity is a couple ticks behind right handed velocity.

As for your video, sure he looked good.  You chose a start in which he threw a shutout.  I remember DCab looking really good when he threw that one hitter against the Yankees.

My point has been, this whole time, that you can't make it in the majors today with the K rate that McGregor had when he pitched.

If you would like to show me guys have sustained success in today's game with a K rate under 4...

I understand your point, we just disagree....Pitchers can and will continue to make it if they have excellent pitching skills, imho.  Comparing Scott Mc Gregor and DCab....lol...hilarious.  Have a great day!  

[Greg Pappas]

I've updated the OP, but I'll add this here as well...
If you follow the link to Twitter and once there click the image of the stats, it'll get notably larger and easier to read.

 

[Philip]

11 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I've updated the OP, but I'll add this here as well...
 

 

Sadly the only two guys on that list with ERAs over six are the two headliners in Dan’s big trades last year.

I tellya, sometimes you gotta think it was sabotage.