Mancini Trade Package

[HowAboutThat]

58 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2019/06/21/jim-henneman-heres-why-trey-mancini-wont-be-dealt-by-orioles?fbclid=IwAR0XubZ5Woo9IcXI40ncYc07FS0UPA2ViHdGQARawR-RwMmmFmGfQXgkUPE

Essentially, compared to others at his position on contending teams, he's actually not all that special, despite being easily the best hitter on the Orioles.

This is a pretty strong argument.  O's might be better off trying to see if he'd take a super team-friendly extension deal instead of trading him.  I'm talking about maybe something like 5/50, to lock him in a fixed value during arbitration and get a few extra years after that of team control at a reasonable price.  Mancini would get predictability and guaranteed money and avoid the risk of non-tender if he falls off.  

No. He’s not worth an extension. When he hits arbitration, if he has gained any value, trade him, and if he hasn’t, his arbitration raises will be small.

If the Orioles learned anything at all from the Trumbo and Davis fiascos, it’s don’t give lots of money to limited players with enormous flaws.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

This is not a surprise. One-dimensional guys don’t usually have trade value.

Depends how good they are at that dimension.    

[HowAboutThat]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Depends how good they are at that dimension.    

That is certainly true, but Trey’s single dimension isn’t that outstanding. Not bad, yes, above average, yes, but enough to make other teams dream of him in their uniform, no. 

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

This is not a surprise. One-dimensional guys don’t usually have trade value.

Trey is not one dimensional.  The five tools are 1) Hit for power. 2) hit for average, 3)  speed,  4) fielding range and 5) throwing.     Trey certainly has shown he has the first two.

[HowAboutThat]

All right, I’ll accept that, but so what? It doesn’t change anything, and no team is going to say, “oh, wait! He hits for average, too!”

[Bahama O's Fan]

All that is needed is one injury

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I don't disagree with the conclusion, but I think it's overstated, and that if Mancini could maintain his current level of production, he should attract some serious intreese among contending teams (or teams that view themselves as contenders) looking to add offensive punch.

If you throw Trey in with qualifying first baseman in both leagues, this season Trey would be tied for fifth in OPS, tied for seventh through 11th in HRs and 17th in RBIs. (In the latter two categories, there are two NYYs who are ahead of or tied with Trey.) He has hit better on the road than at Camden Yards. I would certainly expect his RBIs, and maybe his other stats, to improve if he played for a decent offensive team. 

I think that package might appeal to some teams, though it probably would take beyond the end of July to establish the kind of consistency to attain that interest.

Batting 2nd about half of his game has cut his RBIs down a little.  He does better with RBIs when he hits 3rd or 4th.

[Aristotelian]

The one scenario where a competitive team might be interested is if there is an injury opening up a spot. If that doesn't happen, I agree, the universe of teams interested in Mancini is quite limited. However, we also have Mountcastle and DJ Stewart among others with similar skill sets. I would not do any kind of extension but if an offer doesn't materialize just hit him with a QO and take the draft pick compensation.

[Moose Milligan]

As I've said before...if this was a first round pick putting up a .928 OPS in his age 27 season, we'd be collectively crapping our pants.  I don't think people here believe Trey is this good because...lack of prospect and draft status.  He's not supposed to be this good.

IMO, the main issue here with Trey's trade value is that he's most likely looked at as a first baseman and there are a ton of good first baseman in the game right now.

Unfortunately, the Davis situation is getting in the way.  Get rid of Davis, put Trey at first full time.  We will need a first baseman.  And I know everyone has a stiffy for Mountcastle but the dude doesn't walk.  I understand the infatuation with prospects here but I'm not sure about making room for Mountcastle because Mancini is viewed as a "meh" player who only does a couple things really well.  Mountcastle doesn't do a whole lot well either, yet people want to overlook those things when it's convenient for making the case for a prospect.

[TINSTAAPP]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trey is not one dimensional.  The five tools are 1) Hit for power. 2) hit for average, 3)  speed,  4) fielding range and 5) throwing.     Trey certainly has shown he has the first two.

Mancini has literally been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors over the last two years. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=25,d&page=3_30

Also, Mancini's been great offensively for 1/2 season. Long term, will he be the .900+ OPS guy he's shown this season or the guy who had a sub .300 OBP and .715 OPS last season? I don't think the Orioles should entertain extending him until the conclusion of next season at the earliest. 

[Oriole1940]

For Treys sake, I hope he is traded to an organization which appreciates his MLB ability.  Seems he is getting into the definition of a Matt Weiters, who was expected to, almost single handed, rescue the team from the abyss.  That is way too much expectation of anybody, even if it were Lou Gehrig in his prime.  And no one knows for a fact, just how much value he would bring over in a trade.  I take exception to those who call him a one dimensional  player.   He is no HOF player, but how many are.  He is your definition of the day by day major leaguer who grinds it out for a team.  Mostly unglamorous but still getting the job done.  

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Mancini has literally been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors over the last two years. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1000&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2018-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=25,d&page=3_30

Also, Mancini's been great offensively for 1/2 season. Long term, will he be the .900+ OPS guy he's shown this season or the guy who had a sub .300 OBP and .715 OPS last season? I don't think the Orioles should entertain extending him until the conclusion of next season at the earliest. 

Sure, but he also OPSed .826 in 2017, so while his 2018/2019 differences are stark, its not like he's never hit MLB pitching.

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Sure, but he also OPSed .826 in 2017, so while his 2018/2019 differences are stark, its not like he's never hit MLB pitching.

Was hurt last year, too.  

Could it be he's coming into his own?  

Meh.

[WalkWithElias]

As has been posted on this thread and elsewhere - Trey is 27 years old and arbitration eligible through what for most players are peak years. Only reason to extend him now is if you want to fix his price into the budget for those arbitration years and maybe get a potential discount on his age 31 and 32 seasons. Trey has held up well in the outfield so far, but we can all hope he's playing first base and DHing by the time he's 30.

Is it really worth the gamble of Mancini taking a sudden downturn or getting injured to lock in what we think is best-case a 1B/DH at the beginning of his decline for $10-12M per year?

I think Elias will prioritize payroll flexibility. He is already stuck with an Davis' albatross of a contract. No reason to lock in any further big long-term expenses. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The one scenario where a competitive team might be interested is if there is an injury opening up a spot. If that doesn't happen, I agree, the universe of teams interested in Mancini is quite limited. However, we also have Mountcastle and DJ Stewart among others with similar skill sets. I would not do any kind of extension but if an offer doesn't materialize just hit him with a QO and take the draft pick compensation.

 Why in the world do you think Trey would reject a qualifying offer? 

 Meanwhile, I quite agree that we have several guys with the exact same skill set, and it might be a good idea to move him just to make room for one of the other guys. However, he just doesn’t have as much value as a trade piece as he does to us, so he stays, and we kick the can down the road a little bit.