I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Frobby]

On 8/30/2019 at 12:33 PM, Frobby said:

Most of the research, including the article that someone quoted above, suggests that the relationship between dollars and WAR is quite linear, i.e, the premium players do not average more $/WAR than the lower tier players.   

From a Szymborski chat today:

Jeff

12:04

What's $/WAR at these days and how can I help make it better for the owners?

 

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Depends who you ask. Based on ZiPS projections, I still get the best predictor of salaries players get in the mid 7s.

 

 

And it's become increasingly nonlinear.

 

12:05

It was always *supposed* to be nonlinear, but throughout 40 years of FA, acted linear. That appears to be changing.

John

12:59

On WAR value: Non-linear how exactly?

 

Dan Szymborski

12:59

It does not appear that teams are valuing the first win of a player anywhere near $8+ million.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-11-21-19-6460.html

[sportsfan8703]

Villar to the Reds makes a lot of sense.  They don't have the best farm system but these two prospects would interest me,

#6 3B Rece Hinds

#9 SS/2B Jose Israel Garcia

Two players that wouldn't be ready until around 2021/2022, wouldn't require 40 man roster spots, and adds to depth the positions where we lack as an organization.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Villar to the Reds makes a lot of sense.  They don't have the best farm system but these two prospects would interest me,

#6 3B Rece Hinds

#9 SS/2B Jose Israel Garcia

Two players that wouldn't be ready until around 2021/2022, wouldn't require 40 man roster spots, and adds to depth the positions where we lack as an organization.

Are you suggesting either or and?

[7Mo]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you suggesting either or and?

You weren't asking me but I'd be happy with OR. And I'm not picky about which.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

You weren't asking me but I'd be happy with OR. And I'm not picky about which.

Or is a lot more realistic than and.

I'd also gladly take either but I'm not confident he brings that much back.

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you suggesting either or and?

One of the two. Both would be extremely optimistic. Even though the Reds have a weak game system and Villar seems like a really good fit. 

Tendering Villar is an easy choice. It might take some stones, but not really.  We’re just going to have to see what happens with Didi.  At the end of the day Villar is a 4 WAR SS. 

For any team out there looking for a SS, would you rather have Villar for 1/10 or Gregorious for at least 3/42?  That’s if the Yankees don’t want to bring Didi back, or then you have to outbid them. That’s also if you can attract a FA to your team. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

One of the two. Both would be extremely optimistic. Even though the Reds have a weak game system and Villar seems like a really good fit. 

Tendering Villar is an easy choice. It might take some stones, but not really.  We’re just going to have to see what happens with Didi.  At the end of the day Villar is a 4 WAR SS. 

For any team out there looking for a SS, would you rather have Villar for 1/10 or Gregorious for at least 3/42?  That’s if the Yankees don’t want to bring Didi back, or then you have to outbid them. That’s also if you can attract a FA to your team. 

No, at the end of the day Villar put up a 4 win season.

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No, at the end of the day Villar put up a 4 win season.

Right and a 4 WAR player should be worth a couple of a teams top 30. Perhaps not 6 & 9 but you continue to act like he's worthless.

As a fan that watches the games Villar is my favorite player. If they can't get value I'd rather they work our a reasonable extension than give him Away. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Right and a 4 WAR player should be worth a couple of a teams top 30. Perhaps not 6 & 9 but you continue to act like he's worthless.

As a fan that watches the games Villar is my favorite player. If they can't get value I'd rather they work our a reasonable extension than give him Away. 

I think that, given the past transactions he has been involved in, that the league doesn't value him as much as his stats suggest they should.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that, given the past transactions he has been involved in, that the league doesn't value him as much as his stats suggest they should.

Still I'd take Jose Garcia and a guy like Marinian.

[weams]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

From a Szymborski chat today:

Jeff

12:04

What's $/WAR at these days and how can I help make it better for the owners?

 

Dan Szymborski

12:04

Depends who you ask. Based on ZiPS projections, I still get the best predictor of salaries players get in the mid 7s.

 

 

And it's become increasingly nonlinear.

 

12:05

It was always *supposed* to be nonlinear, but throughout 40 years of FA, acted linear. That appears to be changing.

John

12:59

On WAR value: Non-linear how exactly?

 

Dan Szymborski

12:59

It does not appear that teams are valuing the first win of a player anywhere near $8+ million.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-11-21-19-6460.html

Thank you

[weams]

How did we decide that Villar is a 4 WAR player. Is that Like Bryce being a 12 WAR player?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

How did we decide that Villar is a 4 WAR player. Is that Like Bryce being a 12 WAR player?

Villar is a 2-2.5 WAR player on average over the next 3 seasons, IMO.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Villar is a 2-2.5 WAR player on average over the next 3 seasons, IMO.

So a surplus value of about 3 million this year. Right?

[theocean]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

How did we decide that Villar is a 4 WAR player. Is that Like Bryce being a 12 WAR player?

3.9 WAR in 2016. Had a lousy 2017 and then posted 2.7 WAR in 2018. 

I think calling him a perennial 4 WAR player isn't quite accurate, but a 2+ WAR player probably is. And, that's not worth nothing. But it isn't worth a ton when he costs $10M and 2B is pretty deep right now across the league.