How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Sure but look at the type of players filling those spots out right now.  

All of them are more valuable than Davis.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Just because a guy isn't a big liability with the glove, or is above replacement-level defensively, doesn't make him "average." When you compare these guys to other MLB starters, the only one who might be above average is Hays. And three of the eight defenders are IMO way below average -- Mountcastle (best guess), Villar and the catchers. (Villar has "good range" at SS compared to whom? Guys who don't have enough range to play SS?)

And when you compare the projected Oriole starters defensively to other AL East starters, I doubt there's anyone who's above average. Maybe Hays again.

Overall, I rate the team improved defensively next season over the version that began the 2019 season, but I'm guessing no better than tenth in the AL, and probably worse than that.

From what I saw of Alberto at 2B especially late in the season he looks above average defensively at that position.  Not at 3B.  I think in the MLB he rates in the top third defensively at 2B.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

On a side note I actually don’t think Elias is all that bothered about Davis right now. It isn’t like he is worrying over what our record will be.  

Davis is much more of an issue on a good team. I am not saying I don’t want him gone but I don’t Elias is as concerned about him right now as we are.  

Agree

[spiritof66]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think many guys improve on defense in their age 28 season.  Defense peaks early.

I don't doubt that's the case for middle infielders and center fielders. But is it true for first basemen, where defense depends more on skill in handling batted and thrown balls and on judgment and less on range?

Mancini presents an unusual case defensively. Instead of continuing to play (and I am guessing) practice at a position where he had shown some skill, he was told to learn a new and totally different position (that is, not like moving from SS to 2B or LF to RF) to which he wasn't suited. I think he's a decent first baseman who's shown occasional rust and unfamiliarity with the position, and I think there's a possibility he can still improve, even at his age, if he's put there on a steady basis. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think many guys improve on defense in their age 28 season.  Defense peaks early.

Special circumstances here because (1) Mancini has only been playing 1B 25% of the time the last three years and could be sharper with more regular reps, and (2) 1B is less dependent on speed than most other positions.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I don't doubt that's the case for middle infielders and center fielders. But is it true for first basemen, where defense defends more on skill in handling batted and thrown balls and on judgment and less on range?

Mancini presents an unusual case defensively. Instead of continuing to play (and I am guessing) practice at a position where he had shown some skill, he was told to learn a new and totally different position (that is, not like moving from SS to 2B or LF to RF) to which he wasn't suited. I think he's a decent first baseman who's shown occasional rust and unfamiliarity with the position, and I think there's a possibility he can still improve, even at his age, if he's put there on a steady basis. 

I think Mancini played first in High School, in College and in the minors.  I think that's enough repetitions to reach your potential.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Special circumstances here because (1) Mancini has only been playing 1B 25% of the time the last three years and could be sharper with more regular reps, and (2) 1B is less dependent on speed than most other positions.    

I think the idea of him improving falls more into the wish camp than the likely to happen camp.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Mancini played first in High School, in College and in the minors.  I think that's enough repetitions to reach your potential.

It’s still harder to do when you’re not doing it every day, and juggling other positions.   In any event, the advanced metrics liked Mancini at 1B in 2019.   

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Sure but look at the type of players filling those spots out right now.  

The 26 and 40 man rosters are tighter that many think.   Sure that are a dozen guys that are coming off the 40 active roster.    But the O's have to add guys on the IL and the minor leaguers.

I see  three opening on the 40 man roster right now.  I think they are filled with starters/long relievers and an infielder that can play 3B and hit lefties.

[spiritof66]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Mancini played first in High School, in College and in the minors.  I think that's enough repetitions to reach your potential.

I just don't know. And we';re not, or at least I'm not, talking about him becoming a Gold Glover. Just moving up to ML average, which in my opinion would not be that big a step.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the idea of him improving falls more into the wish camp than the likely to happen camp.

2017: -5.7 UZR/150

2018: 0.0 UZR/150

2019: +6.5 UZR/150

Small sample size, caveats about defensive metrics, blah blah.   It’s at least consistent with the idea that improvement is possible (and has been occurring).

[PaulFolk]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

There defense should be average.  Hays in CF and Alberto at 2B should be above average.   Mancini at 1B, Santander in RF are average. Villar is a high error SS.  Probably around 20 errors but he has good range at short and a strong arm.  Ruiz is average defensively at 3B but I think Wilkerson will be similar and hit better.   The catching is below average and Mountcastle projects to below average in left.  

Overall I rate the team average defensively next season.

You do realize the Orioles were THE WORST defensive team in the majors in 2019 by Defensive Runs Saved (-105). How on earth does that team become average defensively with no changes other than adding Hays (and possibly shifting Mancini to first)?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

You do realize the Orioles were THE WORST defensive team in the majors in 2019 by Defensive Runs Saved (-105). How on earth does that team become average defensively with no changes other than adding Hays (and possibly shifting Mancini to first)?

Full season of Hays CF

Full season of Alberto 2B

Full season of Santander RF

Full season on Mancini 1B

That is improvement at 4 of 8 defensive spots.  That should get the O's to average.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2017: -5.7 UZR/150

2018: 0.0 UZR/150

2019: +6.5 UZR/150

Small sample size, caveats about defensive metrics, blah blah.   It’s at least consistent with the idea that improvement is possible (and has been occurring).

With the outfielders coming up the ranks Trey needs to be a full time 1B/DH in 2020. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The question is how big a carrot is a GM slot and what you are willing to put up with to get that position?

Everybody in baseball knows and knew what a catastrophe the Davis contract is and was...If Elias didn’t even bring it up, then shame on him.  Talking about a strategy to deal with it wouldn’t mean he wouldn’t follow ownership’s decision, that’s a given,  but not to even bring up the elephant in the room, or to just hear perhaps that it is my way or the highway, or to know that the owners want a stooge that will not say hard truths....well, yeah, it would have likely given him pause as to what other BS he was going to be getting into for this “carrot” of a job with one of the worst organizations in baseball?   We shall see....if this contract runs anywhere close to completion with Davis still on the active roster, we will know.