Would this team get you excited heading into 2009?

[Mackus]

I'm still missing what's so great about Khalil Greene and why the O's should go after him?

Road OPS since Petco Park opened:

2007 - .840

2006 - .863

2005 - .772

2004 - .895

He's been abysmal both on the road and at home this year, but historically he hits great on the road but doesn't do well at Petco because he's an extreme flyball hitter in that huge park. He doesn't have a great OBP, but he has very good power. I think something like a .275/.330/.500 with 25 HRs from him wouldn't be unreasonable if he's out of Petco and into Camden Yards for half his games.

He's also a very good defensive SS.

So if he can be had for cheap because of the down year, and then if he bounces back, its a great get. If he's had for cheap and then doesn't bounch back, he's only under contract for this year, so you don't risk too much. And he'd still be an upgrade offensively and defensively to the O's SS this year even if he doesn't bounce back.

[JTrea81]

I'm still missing what's so great about Khalil Greene and why the O's should go after him?

Greene's career #'s before 2008

Home: 1183 PA .229 BA, .291 OBP, .366 SLG, .657 OPS, 79 tOPS+

Away: 1229 PA .274 BA, .325 OBP, .499 SLG, .824 OPS, 120 tOPS+

With 2008 #'s:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01

He's also a plus defender (+7 in 2007) and would likely be cheaper than JJ Hardy in terms of what you'd have to give up because of his poor season. To give you an idea of how PETCO hurts him, he led the league in flyball outs with a distance of 350 ft or more in 2007.

[NewMarketSean]

I would hope that that team would win 85+ games.

The rotation could still quite possibly be a mess though.

[LookinUp]

Yea, I agree...some of these trades on here for him are way too much IMO.

That being said, if the Orioles targeted Greene and really wanted to get him, i think they would deal Penn and Reimold for him if they had to.

I think that is too much but I think that is a deal the Orioles would ultimately make.

If it took that, I wouldn't do it. Why not just sign an OCab and move on? I understand the buy-low theory with Greene, it could really pay off. However, I don't understand over paying for a buy low guy. It sort of defeats the purpose of buying low.

[JTrea81]

If it took that, I wouldn't do it. Why not just sign an OCab and move on? I understand the buy-low theory with Greene, it could really pay off. However, I don't understand over paying for a buy low guy. It sort of defeats the purpose of buying low.

OCab costs you a second or third round draft pick for somebody who could be better than both Penn and Reimold. And he's not exactly a spring chicken. Greene is only 28 right now. Given his stats and how much they owe him it may only take Reimold to get him.

I think Greene just needs a change of scenery to produce again.

[connja]

Substitue AJ with Garland and I would be happy.

We would also need Bergy or Hernandez to step up in the rotation. I dont think Liz or Olson have it.

We'd need both to contend. I'd be willing to pass on Tex and let Huff play first if it means 2 SP free agents. Then let Liz, Olson, Penn and crew fight for 1 spot with the others bolstering the bullpen in '09 with the possibility of moving Olson and/or Penn back into the rotation in 2010. Liz should be in the pen for good.

So I'd be happier with a 2009 team like:

1B - Huff

2B - Roberts

3B - Mora

SS - Greene

LF - Reimold

CF - Jones

RF - Kakes

C - Weiters

DH - Scott

SP - Guthrie

SP - Burnett (or Free Agent #1)

SP - Garland (or Free Agent #2)

SP - DCab

SP - 1 of Penn/Bergeson/Olson

BP - Sherrill

BP - Ray

BP - Johnson

BP - Liz

BP - Penn and/or Olson

Other 2-3 bp spots however they shake out from the crew we have this year.

Bergeson should go back to AAA if he can't win the starting spot in Spring Training.

[The Rick]

This is kind of how I feel... but I'd be more excited about 2010 and 2011 because that pitching staff would be league average at best.

When our pitching staff looks like this...

Guthrie

Garland

Tillman

Matusz

Arrieta

...I'll be excited.

But that won't be until 2010 at least.

Yes, a rotation like that is more exciting than the others mentioned. But i'm trying my hardest not to get too excited about the "next wave" of pitching prospects for us. It'll be exciting at least, because they have more potential. But it hardly means they'll produce.

I'm so sick of all of our pitching prospects not living up to their hype. The talk used to be John Maine, Erik Bedard (traded obviously)... then Hayden Penn, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Adam Loewen, Troy Patton, Matt Riley, Kurt Ainsworth and i'm sure i'm forgetting a few. Olson may still pan out, maybe even Liz, but who's to say that this next wave of hot pitching prospects will pan out any differently?

I hate to rain on everyone's party here, but i'm not holding my breath. I hope to God these guys are big league pitchers, but i'm past getting a hard on every time an Orioles pitching prospect is mentioned.

I can't wait to eat crow on this one when one of our prospects comes up and has a Verlander'esque debut season.

[ledzepp8]

Fahey, Bynum, Luis, and Castro.

Thats all you need to know.

Isn't the idea to get someone better...not just less crappy?

[Mackus]

Isn't the idea to get someone better...not just less crappy?

See some of the other posts about Greene as to why he's not just "less crappy".

He has a very good chance of being a well above average SS if he can get out of Petco.

[ledzepp8]

Road OPS since Petco Park opened:

2007 - .840

2006 - .863

2005 - .772

2004 - .895

He's been abysmal both on the road and at home this year, but historically he hits great on the road but doesn't do well at Petco because he's an extreme flyball hitter in that huge park. He doesn't have a great OBP, but he has very good power. I think something like a .275/.330/.500 with 25 HRs from him wouldn't be unreasonable if he's out of Petco and into Camden Yards for half his games.

He's also a very good defensive SS.

So if he can be had for cheap because of the down year, and then if he bounces back, its a great get. If he's had for cheap and then doesn't bounch back, he's only under contract for this year, so you don't risk too much. And he'd still be an upgrade offensively and defensively to the O's SS this year even if he doesn't bounce back.

Don't get me wrong...I wouldn't be upset if we got him. I just don't see trading Penn and Reimold for someone with an OPS of 599. I mean it's not like it's Petco's fault that he doesn't have any speed, doesn't get on base and doesn't walk. But yeah if he could be had for cheap, then yeah whatever.

[ledzepp8]

See some of the other posts about Greene as to why he's not just "less crappy".

He has a very good chance of being a well above average SS if he can get out of Petco.

Yeah I have a tendency to not finish reading the entire thread and then talk about things that have already been covered.:laughlol:

[Mackus]

Don't get me wrong...I wouldn't be upset if we got him. I just don't see trading Penn and Reimold for someone with an OPS of 599. I mean it's not like it's Petco's fault that he doesn't have any speed, doesn't get on base and doesn't walk. But yeah if he could be had for cheap, then yeah whatever.

Agree that Penn and Reimold is too much. If he had another one of his regular seasons, with a .650 OPS in Petco and an .800 OPS on the road, then that would seem reasonable. But coming off such a terrible year, both at home and on the road, his pricetag has gotta be down quite a bit.

[Satyr3206]

I'd like to see an approximate payroll for next year with and without the FA's. Then a best guess as to how high the payroll might be. Then I would have a better idea if these moves are workable. I'm going to go look.

[The Rick]

I'd like to see an approximate payroll for next year with and without the FA's. Then a best guess as to how high the payroll might be. Then I would have a better idea if these moves are workable. I'm going to go look.

That might be hard to do because we still don't know if the Orioles plan on giving BRob and Markakis long-term deals, or how much they'd be. Hopefully they do that this off-season.

As for Tex/Burnett you can probably ballpark what they'll get within reasonable accuracy.

[Sports Guy]

I think that just shows that he has the ability to pitch 220 innings. He's 28, his arm is mature. I'd have no problem penciling him in for 120 pitches every five days.

Do his declining peripheral stats bother you?

Would you give him a 4/48 type contract?