USAToday: Boras Quotes

[weams]

On 11/14/2019 at 12:39 PM, Sanfran327 said:

Having said all of this, I don't think we're full-on tanking. I am 100% in favor of keeping Villar and Mancini (I don't consider them to be investments, per se), and we could be far worse than we have been over the last 2 years if we really wanted to be. We're about as bad as you can be while being capable of getting 24-27 outs 162 times a year. 

This is why Mancini gets no love. Note the Christian Walker and Mike Yastrzemski placements. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

[luismatos4prez]

On 11/15/2019 at 2:02 PM, CallMeBrooksie said:

It's been reported just recently that the team is currently looking to upgrade to their infrastructure in the international scouting department on top of the slew of dedicated scouts they just hired for this very purpose (in addition to the largest/most substantial J2 class in O's history). These are the types of projects that I would expect that $10M to go towards.

And I know you didn't dispute the other point that I made, but I'll follow it up anyways by saying that with a higher draft slot they have more options to select players that they value the most.

There are several good reasons to not spend $$ just because you can afford it.

Scouting and and infrastructure are all good with me.

Non-tendering Villar (or cash-dumping him like Jim Johnson) is a terrible move. He is a valuable piece that teams would love at 1 yr/10M if he were a free agent (just like Schoop last year). They should definitely be able to trade him for a 45-level prospect.

If no one is biting, they already have about the lowest payroll in baseball and the financial situation is not so dire that they'd be forced to cut him. They can keep him and try to flip him at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing. But again, they can and should be able to trade him this winter.

[weams]

8 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Scouting and and infrastructure are all good with me.

Non-tendering Villar (or cash-dumping him like Jim Johnson) is a terrible move. He is a valuable piece that teams would love at 1 yr/10M if he were a free agent (just like Schoop last year). They should definitely be able to trade him for a 45-level prospect.

If no one is biting, they already have about the lowest payroll in baseball and the financial situation is not so dire that they'd be forced to cut him. They can keep him and try to flip him at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing. But again, they can and should be able to trade him this winter.

Sure. They won't get much, but sure.  They were never going to get much -  Everyone passed on him at the trade deadline. He was on fire from then on though. 

[CallMeBrooksie]

10 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Scouting and and infrastructure are all good with me.

Non-tendering Villar (or cash-dumping him like Jim Johnson) is a terrible move. He is a valuable piece that teams would love at 1 yr/10M if he were a free agent (just like Schoop last year). They should definitely be able to trade him for a 45-level prospect.

If no one is biting, they already have about the lowest payroll in baseball and the financial situation is not so dire that they'd be forced to cut him. They can keep him and try to flip him at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing. But again, they can and should be able to trade him this winter.

 

2 hours ago, weams said:

Sure. They won't get much, but sure.  They were never going to get much -  Everyone passed on him at the trade deadline. He was on fire from then on though. 

If you think trading Villar for scraps is a good idea (which is the same thing as "cash dumping" Jim Johnson, btw), then non-tendering him really isn't a big leap from there and it likely has the same end result. My point in all of this has been that non-tendering Villar to save money isn't some preposterous outcome. It's very defensible, and it's possible that no other team wants to touch him at his arb-salary while giving up anything of potential future value in return.

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

 

If you think trading Villar for scraps is a good idea (which is the same thing as "cash dumping" Jim Johnson, btw), then non-tendering him really isn't a big leap from there and it likely has the same end result. My point in all of this has been that non-tendering Villar to save money isn't some preposterous outcome. It's very defensible, and it's possible that no other team wants to touch him at his arb-salary while giving up anything of potential future value in return.

I don’t think the analogy with Jim Johnson is a good one.    Villar is coming off a very good year (4.0 rWAR, 4.0 fWAR), whereas Johnson had slipped significantly in the season preceding his trade (1.3 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR).    I think Villar has significantly more trade value than Johnson — not that I think Villar would bring back a king’s ransom.

[CallMeBrooksie]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the analogy with Jim Johnson is a good one.    Villar is coming off a very good year (4.0 rWAR, 4.0 fWAR), whereas Johnson had slipped significantly in the season preceding his trade (1.3 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR).    I think Villar has significantly more trade value than Johnson — not that I think Villar would bring back a king’s ransom.

I don't think the premise is very different. JJ was traded for whatever we could get  because we didn't want to pay him his arb number, which would be the same thing happening to Villar. You can make a very reasonable case that Villar is a regression candidate for 2020. Like @weams mentioned.. nobody bit at the trade deadline last year when he was cheaper and having a career year, which I think is telling. Milwaukee practically handed him to us. It seems that we value him on this board much more than other league execs do.

But like I've said three times now, I'm not trying to bash Villar or shoo him out of town. I'd be just fine if they decided to keep him and pay his arb salary. I'm just pointing out that it's not some egregious baseball sin to non-tender him. It's a reasonable alternative.

[luismatos4prez]

On 11/18/2019 at 10:03 AM, CallMeBrooksie said:

But like I've said three times now, I'm not trying to bash Villar or shoo him out of town. I'd be just fine if they decided to keep him and pay his arb salary. I'm just pointing out that it's not some egregious baseball sin to non-tender him. It's a reasonable alternative.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/has-jonathan-villar-played-himself-out-of-baltimore/

Quote from article:

Quote

Simply non-tendering him seems unthinkable after a four-win season, so it stands to reason Baltimore would shop him aggressively this winter.

It's unthinkable to me, too. We'll find out in 2 short weeks though.