Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[NCRaven]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I'd argue he can only have value if 1) what's expected to be a losing team somehow is not and/or 2) he somehow helps the bottom line. He can be a 10 WAR player next year and be waste if they lose, TV/stadium revenue don't increase or he doesn't get a valuable return in a trade.

I don't really disagree.  But, I don't think that having a player like Villar on the roster hinders a team's rebuild in any way unless he's blocking someone that can use development at the ML level.  Since Villar is going to be used in a super utility role, that will not likely be the case.  My only point is that if Villar plays two thirds of the season and puts up something approaching 1.2 WAR in that time frame, not unreasonable given projections for 2020, that would be worth approximately $9.6 mil vs. the $6.6 mil in salary that he would have cost them at that point (assuming a $10 mil arbitration salary).  Plus the value of any prospect(s) that they might get back in trade.  And, they'll still be bad enough to get a high draft pick in the 2021 draft.

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't really disagree.  But, I don't think that having a player like Villar on the roster hinders a team's rebuild in any way unless he's blocking someone that can use development at the ML level.  Since Villar is going to be used in a super utility role, that will not likely be the case.  My only point is that if Villar plays two thirds of the season and puts up something approaching 1.2 WAR in that time frame, not unreasonable given projections for 2020, that would be worth approximately $9.6 mil vs. the $6.6 mil in salary that he would have cost them at that point (assuming a $10 mil arbitration salary).  Plus the value of any prospect(s) that they might get back in trade.  And, they'll still be bad enough to get a high draft pick in the 2021 draft.

Deep down, is Villar really enough to make you tune into the games more?  I mean seriously?  I didn't know so many people felt attached to the guy.  

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Deep down, is Villar really enough to make you tune into the games more?  I mean seriously?  I didn't know so many people felt attached to the guy.  

Already addressed this issue further back.  Alone, he does not.  But as part of making the team a bit more enjoyable as a whole, a little bit, yes.  I'm over the trade.  I didn't like the process and don't care for the return.  The team will suck a little more.  Especially if they hold guys back at AAA that could be productive in Baltimore.  But, none of it is likely to affect the outcome.

Was going to type "effect the outcome" on purpose for Tony.  Just kidding you, brother.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Already addressed this issue further back.  Alone, he does not.  But as part of making the team a bit more enjoyable as a whole, a little bit, yes.  I'm over the trade.  I didn't like the process and don't care for the return.  The team will suck a little more.  Especially if they hold guys back at AAA that could be productive in Baltimore.  But, none of it is likely to affect the outcome.

Was going to type "effect the outcome" on purpose for Tony.  Just kidding you, brother.

We're going to be absolutely terrible next year.  There's no move(s) that we can make to change that.  We tried to "compete" in 2017, and ended up with the worst record in MLB.  If that wasn't a reality check for the fans, then I don't know what is.  The team got the message.  That's why we have a whole new Front Officer, Coaching Staff, and we're trying for all new players.  

People are just having a hard time accepting the 76ers' mantra of "Trust the Process".  It's happening, it's happened.  haha.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We're going to be absolutely terrible next year.  There's no move(s) that we can make to change that.  We tried to "compete" in 2017, and ended up with the worst record in MLB.  If that wasn't a reality check for the fans, then I don't know what is.  The team got the message.  That's why we have a whole new Front Officer, Coaching Staff, and we're trying for all new players.  

People are just having a hard time accepting the 76ers' mantra of "Trust the Process".  It's happening, it's happened.  haha.  

I think the Orioles will improve in 2020 even with the players they have traded and yet to be traded. Some of the prospects are going to start making a difference next season. 

[Tony-OH]

It seems to me that Elias has three goals this offseason. Cut payroll (hopefully to be reinvested into the infrastructure of the organization), lose as many games as possible at the big league level next year (For better draft pick), and maximize any return for current players that he doesn't think will be part of a winning future here.

Even the relatively cheap resigning of Richards Bleier gives them a fairly low cost player who might bring back a player if a need arises from a contender if he can show he's fully healthy and pitching like he did pre-surgery.

If his thoughts are solely on the "strategic vision" of the future, then all of his moves makes sense, even the Villar move. The only problem I have with the Villar move under this scenario is could he have maximized Villar's value even more if Villar played well and a need arose from a contender during spring training or at the trading deadline. If that had happened, the chances are Elias could have netted a much better return than what he got now, though it appeared he wasn't willing to take that financial risk on to see if that scenario played out.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

It seems to me that Elias has three goals this offseason. Cut payroll (hopefully to be reinvested into the infrastructure of the organization), lose as many games as possible at the big league level next year (For better draft pick), and maximize any return for current players that he doesn't think will be part of a winning future here.

Even the relatively cheap resigning of Richards Bleier gives them a fairly low cost player who might bring back a player if a need arises from a contender if he can show he's fully healthy and pitching like he did pre-surgery.

If his thoughts are solely on the "strategic vision" of the future, then all of his moves makes sense, even the Villar move. The only problem I have with the Villar move under this scenario is could he have maximized Villar's value even more if Villar played well and a need arose from a contender during spring training or at the trading deadline. If that had happened, the chances are Elias could have netted a much better return than what he got now, though it appeared he wasn't willing to take that financial risk on to see if that scenario played out.

Is there any chance that Elias has a need to use the funds that would have gone to Villar now for investment facilities, player development and international signings? I would have preferred to keep Villar, but if Elias ends up using that money into yielding multiple prospects I'm ok with it. Plus short term it's not like Villar turns the Orioles into a team that wins 81+ games. 

[wildbillhiccup]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Deep down, is Villar really enough to make you tune into the games more?  I mean seriously?  I didn't know so many people felt attached to the guy.  

They didn't. It's just another reason to bitch, complain and second guess. 

[DrungoHazewood]

52 minutes ago, Scalious said:

 So? They are at 57M with Villar. Name of the game is getting talent. $$$ is just a means. These are businesses that are given around a 200M revenue floor for the year. Told they have to spend some of that money on players. 47M payroll was probably pushing the wrong peoples buttons.

Getting a similar skilled player in FA was going likely require a mutli-year commitment. Which re-builders don't like to do.

Value is a fluid thing.

I think the league told Jeter he had to have at least a few players on the team making over the minimum or it might hurt negotiations on the new CBA.  I think that's the only reason they acquired Villar.

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It seems to me that Elias has three goals this offseason. Cut payroll (hopefully to be reinvested into the infrastructure of the organization), lose as many games as possible at the big league level next year (For better draft pick), and maximize any return for current players that he doesn't think will be part of a winning future here.

Even the relatively cheap resigning of Richards Bleier gives them a fairly low cost player who might bring back a player if a need arises from a contender if he can show he's fully healthy and pitching like he did pre-surgery.

If his thoughts are solely on the "strategic vision" of the future, then all of his moves makes sense, even the Villar move. The only problem I have with the Villar move under this scenario is could he have maximized Villar's value even more if Villar played well and a need arose from a contender during spring training or at the trading deadline. If that had happened, the chances are Elias could have netted a much better return than what he got now, though it appeared he wasn't willing to take that financial risk on to see if that scenario played out.

How could Villar's value have been maximized any more than it was last season? He was in the midst of a career year, they shopped him, and no one was interested. Why would you play that game of Russian roulette again when the industry consensus is that he will regress in 2020? 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the league told Jeter he had to have at least a few players on the team making over the minimum or it might hurt negotiations on the new CBA.  I think that's the only reason they acquired Villar.

I think you're going Jeter too much credit. Jeter is the Elway of MLB. He's an idiot with zero long term vision or game plan for the franchise. This is just one of many stream of consciousness type moves since he's taken over the reigns. That Gallen for Chisholm trade he made last year was a terrible move too. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I think they want to flip him in season.  They're betting that they'll get more in return than they gave us in the first place.  We'll see.

I have my doubts.  The Orioles have been actively trying to trade him for a while and got little interest, and he's coming off a career year so he may trend down a bit.

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

They didn't. It's just another reason to bitch, complain and second guess. 

They *weren't (not didn't). Batting 1,000 with my poor grammar today. Too much coffee...

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think you're going Jeter too much credit. Jeter is the Elway of MLB. He's an idiot with zero long term vision or game plan for the franchise. This is just one of many stream of consciousness type moves since he's taken over the reigns. That Gallen for Chisholm trade he made last year was a terrible move too. 

You don't have to be a MacArthur genius to pick up a call from the league office, listen to someone tell you to get the payroll up, and go trade for Jonathan Villar.

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

You don't have to be a MacArthur genius to pick up a call from the league office, listen to someone tell you to get the payroll up, and go trade for Jonathan Villar.

...so we're going to assume that Jeter knows how to answer a land line?