Year One Survivors of the Rebuild

[ScGO's]

Entering Year Two of the rebuild, I am most interested in our players who have had 1-2 years of MLB service and were essentially survivors of the Year One Inventory Tryout last season.  For whatever reason it may be, Elias saw enough in a whole year of observation to decide on keeping the following list of players on the 40 man for further evaluation.  They may not make it through next season, let alone Spring Training, but at this point they have another shot at establishing themselves as MLB players.   If they continue to perform they could be on the next Orioles winning team in 2023 or 2024.  I am not saying the following players will be part of that team, but they were given essentially a full year tryout last season and they are being brought back for year 2 of the rebuild.  That includes an entire offseason for our analytics and player development guys to assess the data from 2019.  How will it be applied to the following players?  Will the players make adjustments to improve their performance and stay in Elias’ plans for contention?  How quickly we can contend again relies most on this group of players "getting it" and becoming regular contributors.  I believe the over/under right now is probably 3?

1.       Anthony Santander – He flashed a lot of tools this past year that made it obvious what the team envisioned when they drafted him in the Rule V.  Its funny to think this will be his 4^th year with the organization but he’s only had 1.162 years of service.  September was the outlier after he mashed for essentially 3 months before he limped to a .505 OPS in the final month of the year.  Definitely needs more patience at the plate as he chased the high heat a lot.  I think he has the most potential out of the players on this list to break out big time in 2020.

2.       Renato Nunez – 31 Homeruns, and some were absolutely blasted.  Lot of really solid statcast statistics.  No defensive value which brough his WAR down.  Best as a DH.  Him and Mancini could really find a comfort zone if Davis is out of the picture.  Needs to K less and walk more, although he seemed to take more pitches as the season went on. Monster July really held up his whole season.

3.       Rio Ruiz – He is a really interesting player.  He looks good in a baseball uniform, meaning he has a lot of athletic movement and physique to him.  I thought I noticed him make a change to his swing after he returned to the majors that helped him open up his front shoulder a little bitter and get to the inside pitch. Has some on-base skills. Post All Star Break, he saw a spike in his SLG%.  Positive dWAR third baseman.  I think he still has a lot of work to do with his bat, but maybe he can build on his strong finish.

4.       Richie Martin - He might not even start the season with the team, but he flashed some tools.  He is in the top 2% in the league in sprint speed.  He showed the potential to steal 20+ bases.  His glove graded out at -0.1dWar.  I think his glove shows potential to be a positive tool in the bigs.  He did have a magical September, OPSing 1.060.  Right now, he is in line to be the starting SS.

5.       Chance Sisco – Still only 132 games in the bigs.  Flashes OBP skills. But his swing doesn’t seem like the one that would have won multiple minor league hitting titles.  Looks long and loopy at times.  Does flash a few statcast power attributes like barrell% and launch angle.  Adley will be knocking soon.  Interesting to see what becomes of Chance Sisco.

6.       Pedro Severinio –Mashed lefties.  That was about it.  Graded below average defensively.  Flashes power potential.  If Sisco can start hitting, they could make a good lefty/righty platoon.  Not sure if he will be able to apply any analytics to his defensive approach.

7.       Stevie Wilkerson – Should not be allowed to hit against lefties.  Maybe give up hitting right handed? Might never develop into a full time starter, but could be a great 26^th man on a competitive roster.  Can play 7 of 8 positions and can be a mop up pitcher.  Has top tier sprint speed.  Could he develop stolen base skills?

8.       John Means – A lot of the analytics point to him coming back to earth soon.  His change up is killer and he seems to have learned a lot last season.  Here’s hoping he can be our ace for the next two season and slide into a back of the rotation starter by the time we are competitive.

9.       Asher Wojciechowski – 1.4 WAR isn’t too bad for a milb sign. Has that high spin 4 seamer.  Looked golden at times last season.  Got hit way too hard on the whole. His slider and 4 seamer have potential.  Change was essentially useless.  Would be nice to see him hold down a spot in the back of the rotation and maybe evolve into a spot starter/opener if he is around by contention.

10.   Shawn Armstrong – I still like his slider/cutter.  I also wondered how he would do in an opener role.  His numbers are inflated a little bit by his poor start with Seattle.  His August was also disastrous.  Needs to find a way to get RH hitters out better.  Lots of K potential if he can control his cutter/slider combo a little better.

11.   Paul Fry – Kind of the LH version of Armstrong.  Both were .3 WAR for the O’s, with decent K numbers , pretty good sliders, and disastrous Augusts (although Fry took his disaster much deeper into September). Batters don’t get a good launch angle off Fry.  Could find some value if he can start getting lefties out more consistently.

12.   Tanner Scott – K’s are there.  So are the BBs.  Slider can be untouchable at times.  If he can find some control, he could be a sleeper pick for future closer still.

13.   Dwight Smith Jr. – I am still shocked to see him on the roster.  His arm turned me off completely last year, but he did show the ability to hit at times.  Not sure what Elias’ plans are for him.  I know he has an option left. 

14.   David Hess – Another player I am shocked to still see on the 40 man, but apparently they are going to try Hess as a reliever in 2020. Statcast says he has some solid vertical movement with is 4 seamer, and his CB had much better movement in 2018.  Again, who knows how analytics may affect all the names on this list.

[ChosenOne21]

Great write-up!

I do not understand this organization's fascination with Dwight Smith Jr. We have a crowded outfield and he's, what, replacement level at best and not getting any younger? Every time they take someone off the 40-man, I'm surprised it isn't him

[ScGO's]

21 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Great write-up!

I do not understand this organization's fascination with Dwight Smith Jr. We have a crowded outfield and he's, what, replacement level at best and not getting any younger? Every time they take someone off the 40-man, I'm surprised it isn't him

His bat isn't terrible.  Statcast shows positive marks.  If given 500 ABs, he could potentially hit 20-25 HRs and hit .275 or so.  But I don't think he'll get that chance because he is such a liability in the OF and he doesn't show much OBP skills.

[wildcard]

Enjoyed the post.  Thanks

Some comment that are not reflected in the OP.

2. Nunez - When Diaz is ready for the majors, whether that is this coming season or next the O's have a decision to make.   Diaz is projected to get regular  playing time in right which move Mancni and/or Mountcastle out of the outfield and into the 1B/DH slots.  Then the O's will need to make a decision on Nunez, Mancini or Mountcastle.

3.  Ruiz - Good enough to be an average defensive  3B but does not hit lefties.  That make him a platoon candidate.

4. Martin - According to Elias he wants to acquire a veteran SS. 

10.  Armstrong - His poor beginning to the season while with Seattle has little to do with his overall evaluation and future with the O's.   He has a 5.13 ERA and a 1.546 WHIP while with the O's.   He gave up more hits than inning pitched and walked  to many.    His ability to strike out batter is his major plus.     I have him on the roster bubble but I have not idea whether Elias believes he as a future with the O's.

13.  Smith - IMO the only thing keeping his on the roster is Mountcastle beginning the season at AAA and Stewart not being ready to start the season due to injury.

14. Hess - As of now Hess is a candidate for the rotation.  Hopefully Elias is able to bring in enough starting talent to move him to the pen in either the majors or minors.

While Alberto as over 3 year of service time somehow it seems he should be on this list..

[ScGO's]

 

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

While Alberto as over 3 year of service time somehow it seems he should be on this list..

3+ years of service makes someone a trade candidate in my eyes .

[DirtyBird]

Let's revisit this in 3 months.

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

How quickly we can contend again relies most on this group of players "getting it" and becoming regular contributors.

I don't believe this to be true. For the most part, this group represents what Elias was stuck with when he got here. The more players on this list who are still here in three or four years, the worse we will be.

I think how quickly we contend relies most on those players who are in the system but haven't reached the majors yet, plus prospects and players still to be acquired through the draft, trade and (eventually) free agency.

[thezeroes]

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

3.  Ruiz - Good enough to be an average defensive  3B but does not hit lefties.  That make him a platoon candidate.

.275/

.310/

.438

/.748 If his line against left handed pitchers was this would he be a keeper???

[Frobby]

I think it will be interesting to see who was able to make improvements over the winter.  Our development team had a whole season to watch these guys and evaluate them.     I’m sure a lot of them were given guidance on what to work on over the winter.    For many nothing much will change, but for a couple of guys, perhaps it will.    

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, thezeroes said:

.275/

.310/

.438

/.748 If his line against left handed pitchers was this would he be a keeper???

Maybe, but his career major league stats don't tell the real story of Ruiz vs lefties.

[spiritof66]

3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

I don't believe this to be true. For the most part, this group represents what Elias was stuck with when he got here. The more players on this list who are still here in three or four years, the worse we will be.

I think how quickly we contend relies most on those players who are in the system but haven't reached the majors yet, plus prospects and players still to be acquired through the draft, trade and (eventually) free agency.

I agree with most of this, but there's also a question as to how much value can be gotten out of the guys on this list, whether that value is realized via trade or sticking around when the Orioles are a much better team. (For those purposes, I would add Alberto to the list.)

Who on this list might in a couple of years hold down a job in MLB other than filling a roster spot on a real bad team? Means and Santander have a good chance, IMO. The rest seem unlikely, but you never know. I never know, anyhow.

[hoosiers]

I thought Ruiz was an absolute steal when we picked him up and I am eager to see the incremental improvement to make him an average everyday major league 3B with the potential for more.  

Santander looks poised to be an above average producer.

Really interested in the performances of Martin, Means and a couple of others on this list.

[mdbdotcom]

33 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I agree with most of this, but there's also a question as to how much value can be gotten out of the guys on this list, whether that value is realized via trade or sticking around when the Orioles are a much better team. (For those purposes, I would add Alberto to the list.)

Who on this list might in a couple of years hold down a job in MLB other than filling a roster spot on a real bad team? Means and Santander have a good chance, IMO. The rest seem unlikely, but you never know. I never know, anyhow.

I agree with adding Alberto to the list, and that some of these players can have value either with the team or as trade chips. I just don't agree that the future values of the players listed are most important to the team's future. 

[ScGO's]

21 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I agree with adding Alberto to the list, and that some of these players can have value either with the team or as trade chips. I just don't agree that the future values of the players listed are most important to the team's future. 

I probably worded that part wrong.  I don't believe those players will determine if we are competitive.  I believe in the plan in place and that we will ultimately be competitive in the future because of the crop of players Elias brings in and develops.  I meant that if these current players can perform, we could be competitive by 2021 or 2022, essentially a year earlier than expected.  I believe our prospects will be developed and arrive, but we could see a winning team sooner if some of the guys on this list can already be provide value and be performing well when our next wave of youth arrives..

[mdbdotcom]

16 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I probably worded that part wrong.  I don't believe those players will determine if we are competitive.  I believe in the plan in place and that we will ultimately be competitive in the future because of the crop of players Elias brings in and develops.  I meant that if these current players can perform, we could be competitive by 2021 or 2022, essentially a year earlier than expected.  I believe our prospects will be developed and arrive, but we could see a winning team sooner if some of the guys on this list can already be provide value and be performing well when our next wave of youth arrives..

Thanks for the explanation. This makes more sense now.