Connolly: 5 ways this team will be worse, 3 ways it will be better

[Moose Milligan]

Connolly over at @TonySoprano's all time favorite family friendly site (other than the OH) THE ATHLETIC wrote a good column about how the Orioles could be worse than last year, also how they could be better.  If dear Soprano were here, he'd tell you that it's worth a subscription.  

And it is.

It's paid content so can't copy and paste but I'll provide the highlights.

5 ways they'll be worse:

1. The rotation is a painful mystery

2. Losing Jonathan Villar will sting

3. The division got better

4. This is still an evaluation year

5. Summer trades are likely — if basically anyone plays well

3 ways they could be better:

1. Tighter defense improves overall play

2. The bullpen can’t be as bad as it was

3. Last year’s surprises take another leap

What say you?

I agree with the 5 ways they'll be worse, especially reasons 1, 2 and 3, not so much 4 and 5.  We'll be evaluating some good prospects like Hays and Mountcastle and lesser prospects like Kremer and Akin.  While Kremer and Akin are probably going to be members of a bad rotation, you never know...they could step up.  Trades...eh, by that point what's done is done and this team will be well on the way to cratering.

Surprisingly, I agree with his 3 ways the team will be better, more so than the ways we'll be worse.  That said, a better defense doesn't matter if the ball doesn't stay in the yard.  It remains to be seen if MLB uses the same balls that they did last year or reigns it in a little but the rotation looks like it'll be dreadful.  I can see us approaching the homer record we set last year.  

Either way, we'll be in the running for the #1 pick.  

[bobmc]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Connolly over at @TonySoprano's all time favorite family friendly site (other than the OH) THE ATHLETIC wrote a good column about how the Orioles could be worse than last year, also how they could be better.  If dear Soprano were here, he'd tell you that it's worth a subscription.  

And it is.

It's paid content so can't copy and paste but I'll provide the highlights.

5 ways they'll be worse:

1. The rotation is a painful mystery

2. Losing Jonathan Villar will sting

3. The division got better

4. This is still an evaluation year

5. Summer trades are likely — if basically anyone plays well

3 ways they could be better:

1. Tighter defense improves overall play

2. The bullpen can’t be as bad as it was

3. Last year’s surprises take another leap

What say you?

I agree with the 5 ways they'll be worse, especially reasons 1, 2 and 3, not so much 4 and 5.  We'll be evaluating some good prospects like Hays and Mountcastle and lesser prospects like Kremer and Akin.  While Kremer and Akin are probably going to be members of a bad rotation, you never know...they could step up.  Trades...eh, by that point what's done is done and this team will be well on the way to cratering.

Surprisingly, I agree with his 3 ways the team will be better, more so than the ways we'll be worse.  That said, a better defense doesn't matter if the ball doesn't stay in the yard.  It remains to be seen if MLB uses the same balls that they did last year or reigns it in a little but the rotation looks like it'll be dreadful.  I can see us approaching the homer record we set last year.  

Either way, we'll be in the running for the #1 pick.  

I was gonna say, "What an obtuse buffoon!", simply because I can.

I think that we might miss last year's Villar but don't agree that he would repeat that performance.  Is the division really better?  Jays a bit stronger but Bosox a little weaker?  A bulked up Davis will definitely hurt us again but 26th man.  The evaluation of pieces that might help in the future is the exciting part of the losing, however.  Hays, Santander, Diaz (?), Mountcastle and all the lefty possibilities.  It should be a torturous (Cobb's blister on his first outing) but also exhilarating ride to last place!

[UpstateNYfan]

Looks like a last day of January fluff piece. Have no problems with 1-3 on worse list. Evaluations?? Trades??? Seems to me that is a consistent part of the game, for all teams. I only see number 1 as a pretty sure thing under better.  Number 2, look at number 1 from worse list. 3 Leap, last year's surprises?? Hays and Means?? Grabbing at straws here IMO. We may look longingly at 2019.

 

[Aristotelian]

Iglesias offsets Villar. The Yankees made a big signing but other than that I don't see the division being better. 4 was true last year, I don't see how it makes us worse. 

Biggest concerns would be 1 and 5. I definitely agree loss of Bundy will be huge. Mancini would sting as well if he is traded, although less of a loss because Mountcastle should replace a lot of his production. 

The big positive he does not mention is talent from the minors. We finally have some actual prospects who are maturing and could contribute at the MLB level which will offset the loss of Mancini and Bundy.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

One thing I’ve learned with the Orioles is never say it can’t be as bad as last year. 

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I was gonna say, "What an obtuse buffoon!", simply because I can.

I think that we might miss last year's Villar but don't agree that he would repeat that performance.  Is the division really better?  Jays a bit stronger but Bosox a little weaker?  A bulked up Davis will definitely hurt us again but 26th man.  The evaluation of pieces that might help in the future is the exciting part of the losing, however.  Hays, Santander, Diaz (?), Mountcastle and all the lefty possibilities.  It should be a torturous (Cobb's blister on his first outing) but also exhilarating ride to last place!

Yankees got Cole.  We'll have to see him a couple times, at least.  

[interloper]

Seems reasonable enough. A little surprised he didn't cite the firing of his precious scouts as a reason they'll be worse. But that's probably because, you know, they hired a bunch of scouts after that. 

I DIGRESS.

I thought last year was entertaining at times and I think it will be a much more fun season this year. More top prospects, better D, just more things to watch for overall. 

I don't really think the AL East got all that much better. We were gonna get drubbed by them anyway, so what's a few games with Cole pitching really matter for us? I think the Sox take a big step back, but that's just me. 

[sportsfan8703]

50 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

1. The rotation is a painful mystery 

How can it be worse than last year?  The goal is to eat innings and allow the wave of SP in AAA/AA to develop.  

2. Losing Jonathan Villar will sting

At first it will, but Mountcastle will pick up that slack offensively.  Iglesias defensively.  Who says that Villar wasn't due to have a come back to his career norms type of year?

3. The division got better

It's the AL East.  This isn't new. 

4. This is still an evaluation year

Somewhat.  The real evaluating wont take place until we have the gang of SP up from AAA/AA, then the position players like Diaz, Mountcastle, Hays, etc....

5. Summer trades are likely — if basically anyone plays well

How is this a bad thing.  Hopefully Cobb, Mancini, Givens, Armstrong, Fry, and Alberto, play well enough to bring back the best possible returns.  

3 ways they could be better:

1. Tighter defense improves overall play

2. The bullpen can’t be as bad as it was

3. Last year’s surprises take another leap

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Iglesias offsets Villar. The Yankees made a big signing but other than that I don't see the division being better. 4 was true last year, I don't see how it makes us worse. 

Biggest concerns would be 1 and 5. I definitely agree loss of Bundy will be huge. Mancini would sting as well if he is traded, although less of a loss because Mountcastle should replace a lot of his production. 

The big positive he does not mention is talent from the minors. We finally have some actual prospects who are maturing and could contribute at the MLB level which will offset the loss of Mancini and Bundy.

I don't know if Igelsias offsets Villar.  Iglesias was 1.5 last year, Villar was 4.0.  Now does Villar do that again this year?  Not sure.  

Our infield defense got a little better but as far as having someone at the top of our lineup that our opponents have to respect, we didn't get better.  

 

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

I thought last year was entertaining at times and I think it will be a much more fun season this year. More top prospects, better D, just more things to watch for overall. 

 

I thought last year was entertaining, too.  They didn't roll over for anyone.  They would take a beating and come back the next day and act like nothing happened.

Looking forward to you trying to keep up with your daily ray of light posts.   

[TommyPickles]

If the Red Sox trade Betts to a team outside of the division, that would probably hurt the AL East's overall WAR projections a bit.  Though, I agree the Yankees are going to be really good.  The Blue Jays are an exciting young team that's likely to improve too, unfortunately...

I do think the Orioles' rotation could be better this year. It could also be worse, but 5.57 ERA, 1.413 WHIP, and 36 wins is a pretty low bar.  I think Cobb could bounce back. I think Means will regress a little, but still be strong. And you've got plenty of other guys who could do well.  I'm not expecting much, but I wouldn't be shocked if the O's starters had, say, a 5.30-5.40 ERA.

 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I thought last year was entertaining, too.  They didn't roll over for anyone.  They would take a beating and come back the next day and act like nothing happened.

Looking forward to you trying to keep up with your daily ray of light posts.   

Ha! That was tough, not gonna lie. Maybe I'll move to a weekly format... lol

[TommyPickles]

I think the Orioles will win more than 54 games in 2020. For the record.  It might be 55, but I think it'll be more than 54.

[bobmc]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ha! That was tough, not gonna lie. Maybe I'll move to a weekly format... lol

LOL or like @Frobby's monthly recap of W's and L's.  A bright spot here, a bright spot there ....  

[bobmc]

12 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I think the Orioles will win more than 54 games in 2020. For the record.  It might be 55, but I think it'll be more than 54.

The "record" is duly noted and poll to follow for sure!

[sportsfan8703]

31 minutes ago, interloper said:

Seems reasonable enough. A little surprised he didn't cite the firing of his precious scouts as a reason they'll be worse. But that's probably because, you know, they hired a bunch of scouts after that. 

I DIGRESS.

I thought last year was entertaining at times and I think it will be a much more fun season this year. More top prospects, better D, just more things to watch for overall. 

I don't really think the AL East got all that much better. We were gonna get drubbed by them anyway, so what's a few games with Cole pitching really matter for us? I think the Sox take a big step back, but that's just me. 

September was really entertaining last year.  We're going to hit this year.  Especially once Mountcastle comes up.  We're going to play a lot of 9-6 types of games.