Connolly: Q&A with Mike Elias

[mdbdotcom]

23 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's easy: maximize current wins while doing all the stuff Elias is saying he's doing (and explicitly showing the fans all the behind the scenes stuff so we can be more confident he's not a snake oil salesman) and add 50% more for good measure.  In other words, top five farm system, top five analytical staff, and never dipping below 75-80 wins at any time between 2019-2021.

Don't go so easy on him.

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

No way you can compare the two.Orioles had 14 consecutive losing seasons before Dan got here.No way the Orioles would have let Elias tear down the team for something like 20  consecutive losing seasons.Fans would have lost total interest. The tear down would not have happened if the Orioles did not have a few years or winning, no matter who was in charge.

2012 didn't have to happen.  It wasn't preordained.  A lot of things went right.  If God simulated 2012 1000 times probably 700 of them the O's finish under .500.  2014 probably doesn't happen with 2012.  Duquette's plans worked out very well, probably as well as they could have with moderate payrolls and a poor farm system. 

Tearing it all down was most certainly a reasonable option.  Maybe a more reasonable option (without the 20/20 hindsight) than saying "hey, we're going to rely on like Nate McLouth and Chris Davis and Joe Saunders and Lew Ford to get us to the playoffs after 69 wins in '11."  If you'd have told us in mid-2011 the story of the 2012 Orioles you'd have been laughed off the site.

[Going Underground]

35 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

2012 didn't have to happen.  It wasn't preordained.  A lot of things went right.  If God simulated 2012 1000 times probably 700 of them the O's finish under .500.  2014 probably doesn't happen with 2012.  Duquette's plans worked out very well, probably as well as they could have with moderate payrolls and a poor farm system. 

Tearing it all down was most certainly a reasonable option.  Maybe a more reasonable option (without the 20/20 hindsight) than saying "hey, we're going to rely on like Nate McLouth and Chris Davis and Joe Saunders and Lew Ford to get us to the playoffs after 69 wins in '11."  If you'd have told us in mid-2011 the story of the 2012 Orioles you'd have been laughed off the site.

I am saying after 14 years I don't think  the  Oriole ownership would have let a tear down happen in 2012.They needed a few seasons of some winning.It would have been a tougher sell at that time.We have had 14 consecutive losing seasons and we are going to tear it down for many more losing seasons.Good luck marketing that .

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

I am saying after 14 years I don't think  the  Oriole ownership would have let a tear down happen in 2012.They needed a few seasons of some winning.It would have been a tougher sell at that time.We have had 14 consecutive losing seasons and we are going to tear it down for many more losing seasons.Good luck marketing that .

Tear down wouldn’t have been the right strategy at that time.    I’m happy with the direction Duquette took in 2012.    I have issues with some of his trades in 2013-15, the failure to sign Manny long term early on, and the Davis deal.     Other things I don’t have a problem with even though they didn’t work out well.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

This is true, but Dan said we would win when he got here and made moves to win.  And we did win, right away thanks to the talent on hand and some spectacularly successful moves.

It would be an entirely different discussion if AM had remained one more year or if Elias were in charge of that team and DID NOT TRY TO WIN in 2012.  We probably would have kept Machado in the minors, had a top 10 first round pick in the 2012 draft and perhaps could have made more investments internationally (Dan did hire FredF and later had some bigger $ signings between $300k and $750k).  I wonder if we had gone through two more years of investments before trying to win if we would have had a better run in 2014-2018 and perhaps laid important groundwork internationally how things would have been different - especially given the awful trades and free agent signings (other than Cruz) made by Dan after 2012.

I have always believed (and still do) that the O's success in 2012 caught DD off-guard.  Or at least the degree of success.  I think DD wanted that year to get everything lined up the way he wanted it for a push beginning no sooner than 2013, instead he was necessarily implementing a win-now strategy.  IMO a lot of the credit for 2012 has to go to Buck and if Elias was in charge then and decided not to win... well, I would pay full price to watch that confrontation.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

I have always believed (and still do) that the O's success in 2012 caught DD off-guard.  Or at least the degree of success.  I think DD wanted that year to get everything lined up the way he wanted it for a push beginning no sooner than 2013, instead he was necessarily implementing a win-now strategy.  IMO a lot of the credit for 2012 has to go to Buck and if Elias was in charge then and decided not to win... well, I would pay full price to watch that confrontation.

I think a lot of credit for 2012 has to go to the baseball gods.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

2012 didn't have to happen.  It wasn't preordained.  A lot of things went right.  If God simulated 2012 1000 times probably 700 of them the O's finish under .500.  2014 probably doesn't happen with 2012.  Duquette's plans worked out very well, probably as well as they could have with moderate payrolls and a poor farm system. 

Tearing it all down was most certainly a reasonable option.  Maybe a more reasonable option (without the 20/20 hindsight) than saying "hey, we're going to rely on like Nate McLouth and Chris Davis and Joe Saunders and Lew Ford to get us to the playoffs after 69 wins in '11."  If you'd have told us in mid-2011 the story of the 2012 Orioles you'd have been laughed off the site.

Tearing it down wasn't a reasonable option, especially with the O's best crop of talent in a long time entering their primes. Wieters, Jones, and Davis were all 26. Markakis was 28. Manny Machado was ready. There was still reasonable hope at the time that Tillman, Arrieta, and Britton could be a solid rotation.

I feel like there is a lot of revisionist history about the DD-era just because things are so lousy now. I think he did a really great job, especially with what he had to deal with.

The biggest issue of that era, in my opinion, is they did not succeed in improving the player development system. If Bundy and Gausman become the pitchers that many thought they could be, I think things are totally different.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think a lot of credit for 2012 has to go to the baseball gods.

The reason it was so awesome is that it was so unlikely. The bullpen set an all time record (at the time) for WPA at over +13 wins.  Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Luis Ayala... greatest bullpen ever.  If you saw that coming you're lying.  McLouth had hit .200 with a .600 OPS over his prior 2+ years, and he played at a 3-win pace for the O's.  From 2009-11 Davis OPS'd under .700.  In '12 Mark Reynolds fielded .850 at third. 

Here's a list of Lew Ford's teams in that era: Rochester, Hanshin, Louisville, Caribes, Long Island, Oaxaca, Long Island, Baltimore, Norfolk, Long Island, Norfolk, Bowie, GCL Orioles, Magallanes, Venezuela, Long Island, Magallanes, Toros, Tijuana...  and he started a playoff game for the Orioles.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Tearing it down wasn't a reasonable option, especially with the O's best crop of talent in a long time entering their primes. Wieters, Jones, and Davis were all 26. Markakis was 28. Manny Machado was ready. There was still reasonable hope at the time that Tillman, Arrieta, and Britton could be a solid rotation.

I feel like there is a lot of revisionist history about the DD-era just because things are so lousy now. I think he did a really great job, especially with what he had to deal with.

The biggest issue of that era, in my opinion, is they did not succeed in improving the player development system. If Bundy and Gausman become the pitchers that many thought they could be, I think things are totally different.

I think Duquette did a great job, at least given the constraints he was faced with.  He pulled off things with the back end of the roster MacPhail wouldn't have even considered. 

That core was good, but no better than (and probably not as good as) the other teams in the division.  The '13 Red Sox won the Series and then added Bogaerts, Bradley and Betts.  And Porcello, Price, Kimbrel and Eduardo Rodriguez.

The Orioles didn't improve the development system because Duquette was given a set budget and (presumably, seemingly) was told to win and keep winning.  You can't have 30-40% of the Yanks and Sox revenues, rebuild the bottom-5 or bottom-10 farm system, build up front office infrastructure, reset and implement a new organizational philosophy, AND keep a $120-160M payroll to win 80-95 games a year.

[MountUrCastle]

On 2/8/2020 at 12:50 AM, atomic said:

Elias is saying they are spending more on the draft because they are drafting higher in each round.

If Elias was still trying to save money, he would have simply drafted Bobby Witt Jr over Rutschmann. Pick slot obviously has a part in money spent, but it's not the sole reason

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, MountUrCastle said:

If Elias was still trying to save money, he would have simply drafted Bobby Witt Jr over Rutschmann. Pick slot obviously has a part in money spent, but it's not the sole reason

Didn't Witt sign for full slot?  Not sure why you think he would have signed for less than Rutschmann.

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tear down wouldn’t have been the right strategy at that time.    I’m happy with the direction Duquette took in 2012.    I have issues with some of his trades in 2013-15, the failure to sign Manny long term early on, and the Davis deal.     Other things I don’t have a problem with even though they didn’t work out well.

A tear down in the 2014-2015 offseason would've been impossible to sell.  Who would've thought that WC game in TOR would basically be TIllman's last MLB level start?  

Ironically what did us in was trying to "spend our way out of it" in 2015-2017.  If only we would've spent our way out of Matusz and Webb's contracts, and invested in the Dominican.  

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A tear down in the 2014-2015 offseason would've been impossible to sell.  Who would've thought that WC game in TOR would basically be TIllman's last MLB level start?  

Ironically what did us in was trying to "spend our way out of it" in 2015-2017.  If only we would've spent our way out of Matusz and Webb's contracts, and invested in the Dominican.  

Totally. Elias acknowledges this too whenever he says the team had "over-extended" itself the last couple years. They should have blown it up in 2015 or as soon as it was clear signing Manny wasn't going to be an option. But it's kind of like, you signed Davis to all this money - are you really gonna rebuild right after that? Duquette was in a pretty tough spot. 

[Going Underground]

“Look, it’s been unfortunate to watch from my standpoint,” Elias said, speaking at Orioles’ Birdland Caravan stop at the Calvert Brewing Company in Upper Marlboro. “It’s been a disturbing series of events. I know Sig Mejdal feels the same way. It’s just been tough for anyone in the sport to watch.

And Sig who must have got the memo :A day later:

“Like you guys, I’ve read of the reported and admitted behaviors, and it is just simply disturbing,” he said. “That’s the best description; it’s disturbing. I’m happy the commissioner’s office is doing all they can to put a stop at this throughout baseball. But the work we did and the reasons why we’re here are sort of player development, and that was the draft, that was international, and that was the development of the players, and that’s all irrelevant to the behaviors we’re learning about.”

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-mike-elias-astros-sign-stealing-20200209-xtvzfz6rhjdudgvvw6slcxvywm-story.html

 

[MountUrCastle]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't Witt sign for full slot?  Not sure why you think he would have signed for less than Rutschmann.

I remember a lot of buzz around the draft suggesting they'd go Witt or someone else due to money. Could have my details mixed.