Poll: If Darvish is posted...

[hatepaste]

50 or 75 years ago very few pitchers threw 90. And even those that did saved it for a few key moments of every game.

I remember in my youth, in the late 70s and early 80s, when it was regularly stated that a MLB average fastball was 88.

Well guess that's kind of what I'm saying. That was 50-75 years ago, things are different now.

I would think the average MLB fastball now is still around 88, maybe 89?

So I dunno, anyone current (last 20-25 years) who threw 88-89 and was highly successful?

[hatepaste]

Basically he's got a Pedro-like frame.

[square634]

Why not bid over $75 million? If he signs a relatively cheap long-term contract, great. If not, the Yankees and Sox can't get him. And maybe then MLB would abandon the idiotic posting rules.

[hatepaste]

Why not bid over $75 million? If he signs a relatively cheap long-term contract, great. If not, the Yankees and Sox can't get him. And maybe then MLB would abandon the idiotic posting rules.

How does that work? If you win the "auction" to negotiate with him, and then fail to reach a contract...do you get that 75 million back?

[ejf1025]

What level is Darvish expected to come in at? ML? AA?

[hatepaste]

What level is Darvish expected to come in at? ML? AA?

Major leagues without a doubt.

[laxtonto]

Well guess that's kind of what I'm saying. That was 50-75 years ago, things are different now.

I would think the average MLB fastball now is still around 88, maybe 89?

So I dunno, anyone current (last 20-25 years) who threw 88-89 and was highly successful?

Just a few quick ones

Jered Weaver 89.9 10-10

Andy Pettitte 88.6 13-10

Brandon Webb 87.9 19-5

Scott Olsen 87.6 6-8

Ted Lilly 87.1 13-7

Andy Sonnanstine 87.0 13-6

Mark Buehrle 86.3 11-10

Mike Mussina 86.2 16-7

Justin Duchscherer 85.9 10-8

Greg Maddux 83.6 6-11

Jamie Moyer 81.2 11-7

Tim Wakefield 73.1 8-8

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008

[square634]

How does that work? If you win the "auction" to negotiate with him, and then fail to reach a contract...do you get that 75 million back?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. But I think your posting fee is supposed to be in good faith, whatever that means. Sounds to me like that would be something impossible to prove.

[hatepaste]

Just a few quick ones

Jered Weaver 89.9 10-10

Andy Pettitte 88.6 13-10

Brandon Webb 87.9 19-5

Scott Olsen 87.6 6-8

Ted Lilly 87.1 13-7

Andy Sonnanstine 87.0 13-6

Mark Buehrle 86.3 11-10

Mike Mussina 86.2 16-7

Justin Duchscherer 85.9 10-8

Greg Maddux 83.6 6-11

Jamie Moyer 81.2 11-7

Tim Wakefield 73.1 8-8

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008

Good stuff. ALthough how accurate? They have D-Cab listed at 92 MPH, and we know he throws (minus the last couple starts) then that. If I'm going to spend that much for him, I want Brandon Webb type performance. None of those other guys I am happy with.

Separate topic. D-Cab leads the league with a 82.6% rate.

[ejf1025]

He is probably one of the 5 best pitchers in the world, and with a 5 year deal... you would have him during the ages of 22-27 where he only figures to be getting better and reaching his prime.

By the end of a 5 year contract, and even with another 1000 professional innings pitched... he will still have less profession innings pitched then Sabathia has now...

With the other top FA arms.. you are paying for past performance... with Darvish, you are paying for the future.

17% of those posting think he will be a bust... would love to hear some rationale about that...

You want to say the cost is too much... ok.. I don't agree, but there is merit there.... you want to say that no pitcher deserves a deal of at least 5 years... for the most part I will agree... to say that you believe he will be a bust... I am missing the logic...

In a league probably 80 to 90% as talented as MLB he is just dominating at ages 20, and 21..... you have 3 current or former MLB managers saying his stuff is amazing, and he would be an ace on most teams...

I'm not really sure how you can stand by this.

[hatepaste]

He is probably one of the 5 best pitchers in the world, and with a 5 year deal... you would have him during the ages of 22-27 where he only figures to be getting better and reaching his prime.

By the end of a 5 year contract, and even with another 1000 professional innings pitched... he will still have less professional innings pitched then Sabathia has now...

With the other top FA arms.. you are paying for past performance... with Darvish, you are paying for the future.

17% of those posting think he will be a bust... would love to hear some rationale about that...

You want to say the cost is too much... ok.. I don't agree, but there is merit there.... you want to say that no pitcher deserves a deal of at least 5 years... for the most part I will agree... to say that you believe he will be a bust... I am missing the logic...

In a league probably 80 to 90% as talented as MLB he is just dominating at ages 20, and 21..... you have 3 current or former MLB managers saying his stuff is amazing, and he would be an ace on most teams...

The other thing to consider...How much do players like Dice-K and Ichiro earn for their clubs? I mean when you see all these Japanese people wearing Red Sox and Mariners hats and jerseys. I mean you could probably pipe MASN straight to Tokyo (don't know what the rules are about that). And you would probably have to have at least more then 3 games a month in HD.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not really sure how you can stand by this.

What would you call a 22-year-old who throws 200+ innings a year to an ERA in the 1.00s in a league that's between AAA and major league quality?

Johan Santana is probably the best pitcher in the world, and his career ERA is over 3.00 in the majors. What do you think he'd do in AAA? It probably wouldn't be a lot better than 200 innings of a 1.85. That's what Darvish has done the last year-and-a-half in a better-than-AAA league. And he's seven years younger than Santana.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why not bid over $75 million? If he signs a relatively cheap long-term contract, great. If not, the Yankees and Sox can't get him. And maybe then MLB would abandon the idiotic posting rules.

Do you have an alternate solution to compensating Japanese teams for players currently under contract to them?

Or would you not have a problem with Matt Wieters leaving for $millions in Japan with the O's not being compensated at all?

[Walladarsky]

What would you call a 22-year-old who throws 200+ innings a year to an ERA in the 1.00s in a league that's between AAA and major league quality?

Johan Santana is probably the best pitcher in the world, and his career ERA is over 3.00 in the majors. What do you think he'd do in AAA? It probably wouldn't be a lot better than 200 innings of a 1.85. That's what Darvish has done the last year-and-a-half in a better-than-AAA league. And he's seven years younger than Santana.

And he fights ham.

[hatepaste]

What would you call a 22-year-old who throws 200+ innings a year to an ERA in the 1.00s in a league that's between AAA and major league quality?

Kevin Slowey?

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=28250

haha...But really, kind of hard to rank him overall in the world when he hasn't played in the major leagues.