Pitchers: stock up/down thoughts?

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, Philip said:

For me, it’s about performance vs expectations. If a guy does appreciably better or worse than expected, that means something. Scott wasn’t good, and Castro walked a bunch of guys. So what? Did we expect anything else? But Hess had 3 Ks in a scoreless outing. Even though it’s against minor leaguers, that warrants mention. Phillips was bad last season and started out bad again. No surprise, but no progress. Carroll was injured- and bad when he wasn’t injured, but now he’s ok and has done well in two appearances so far. Another “Hmmmm maybe” guy. Lowther got blasted...not sure what we expected, but not that.

Yeah, it’s too early to make definite decisions, but it’s sure not too early to compare with past performances, and in that sense, there’s nothing inaccurate about suggesting that a guy is improving or damaging his chances.

I don't think you can take anything out of these first appearances unless velocity or stuff is way down. Some guys just taken longer to get ready. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't think you can take anything out of these first appearances unless velocity or stuff is way down. Some guys just taken longer to get ready. 

If spring training stats were a good gauge of performance, Daniel Cabrera would have been an ace.    

By the way, Dylan Bundy struck out 4 batters in two innings yesterday, allowing no hits and one walk.    
 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think you can take anything out of these first appearances unless velocity or stuff is way down. Some guys just taken longer to get ready. 

All right, fair enough, you know more than I do so I will defer to your experience.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If spring training stats were a good gauge of performance, Daniel Cabrera would have been an ace.    

By the way, Dylan Bundy struck out 4 batters in two innings yesterday, allowing no hits and one walk.    
 

Plus he’s in sunny Los Angeles, where the weather is perfect the people are wonderful and the taxes are low

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

To an extent I agree. However, if you are not an established player and are trying to make the team, performance can matter. Saying that, later performance is much more important then early performance but the only times it really matters is the bubble guys. Elias has said before he doesn't put too much stock in spring stats and really shouldn't because a lot can depend on the talent level they are facing, weather/wind, etc. 

However, if a pitcher can't throw strikes all springs and their stuff is down and they're fighting for a roster spot against another guy who is lights out, that performance can be the reason why one guys makes the team and doesn't.

In the spring performance matters, but the numbers don't.  Velocity matters.  Spin rate probably matters.  Sprint speed matters.  Mechanics matter.  Heath is huge.  Batting average, on-base, slugging, ERA, K rate, wins, losses... doesn't matter a bit.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

But Hess had 3 Ks in a scoreless outing. Even though it’s against minor leaguers, that warrants mention.

That's the kind of thing that talking heads will bring up all the time because Tom Davis needs to fill air time, but it's meaningless.  Hess striking out three minor leaguers on February 26th is like a high school senior striking out three freshmen in the first scrimmage of the year.  

Small samples of data make the information less meaningful.  Exhibition games make data much less meaningful.  Unusual usage patterns make information less meaningful.  Wide variations in talent level make information less meaningful.  Weird park and weather effects skew the data.  Spring training is the combination of all of that and more.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In the spring performance matters, but the numbers don't.  Velocity matters.  Spin rate probably matters.  Sprint speed matters.  Mechanics matter.  Heath is huge.  Batting average, on-base, slugging, ERA, K rate, wins, losses... doesn't matter a bit.

So you have two guys who are equal coming into camp for a job, you don't think performance matter at all? Now we're not talking a guy who has a job already, we're talking about guys who are trying to be that 6th, 7th, 8th spot in the bullpen on this team?

If Evan Phillips (just using him as a name) is walking everyone and getting shelled, it doesn't matter if a guy like Tate (again just pulling a similar player when it comes to major league success, time and options) is lights out? I gotta disagree there. I think you are being way too black and white on this and saying nothing matters on the field, and that's true for guys competing for jobs. Now, at the end of spring Phillips has a 10.00 ERA but had thrown the ball really well the last week of then yes, his overall stats may not matter, but I do believe guys who are close can win spots with great springs. 

Look at Means last spring. Means won that spot by how he threw last spring. Had he come in and got bombed in spring, he wasn't starting the year in Baltimore.

[SteveA]

8 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

The reason we haven't seen Wells: tired arm, per Roch.

Interesting.  In his earlier article on MASN in the morning he said it was an oblique.

[SteveA]

8 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

The reason we haven't seen Wells: tired arm, per Roch.

An hour after that he corrected it:

 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, SteveA said:

An hour after that he corrected it:

 

Tough injury. Hopefully just some soreness. I don’t think Wells has ever missed a start in his Milb career. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Tough injury. Hopefully just some soreness. I don’t think Wells has ever missed a start in his Milb career. 

Sure he has.    He didn’t debut until April 20 last year due to his oblique injury.    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wells-000ale&type=pgl&year=2019

[interloper]

Phillips a much needed improvement in his second appearance. Dude has very poor command, though. 

Handhold a second scoreless appearance. He looks decent.

Armstrong a second strong appearance, flashing some of his new pitches. I saw a decent curve and some cutters. 

Wojo looked very strong despite the home run. Had the look of a legitimate ML starter. Fastball was live at the top of the zone, I spotted one nasty breaking ball. I think he's going to be a workhorse this year. Some guys figure it out late. Reminds me a bit of Miguel Gonzalez. 

Zimmermann! Decent! I like the 93mph fastball, though I'm less sold on the breaking stuff I saw in that appearance. 

[interloper]

Givens will pitch in today's game. 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So you have two guys who are equal coming into camp for a job, you don't think performance matter at all? Now we're not talking a guy who has a job already, we're talking about guys who are trying to be that 6th, 7th, 8th spot in the bullpen on this team?

If Evan Phillips (just using him as a name) is walking everyone and getting shelled, it doesn't matter if a guy like Tate (again just pulling a similar player when it comes to major league success, time and options) is lights out? I gotta disagree there. I think you are being way too black and white on this and saying nothing matters on the field, and that's true for guys competing for jobs. Now, at the end of spring Phillips has a 10.00 ERA but had thrown the ball really well the last week of then yes, his overall stats may not matter, but I do believe guys who are close can win spots with great springs. 

Look at Means last spring. Means won that spot by how he threw last spring. Had he come in and got bombed in spring, he wasn't starting the year in Baltimore.

All I'm saying is that scouting >>>>>>>>>>> game stats in the spring.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All I'm saying is that scouting >>>>>>>>>>> game stats in the spring.

That I agree with.