Jump to content

Pitchers drafted #1 or #2 since 2000

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

18th of 60-some #2 overall picks in career value.  So top third of a really highly regarded group of ballplayers.  In other words, 70% of #2 picks were worse, and almost half of them had careers worth less than Prior's best season.

But it's the draft, and if a top five pick doesn't go to Cooperstown he's a disappointment.  Success is getting to the 95th percentile.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
survivedc Major Leaguer Rising Star

survivedc

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I am not a big Bowden fan and I don't like the claim in his article that one shouldn't draft a pitcher in the top five slots in the first round just because of who was drafted in that slot in prior years.  The evaluation of a prospect should be a unique event, IMO.  However, Bowden's generalizations of the recent historical failure rates of the pitchers taken at the very top of a draft class uses the same line of reasoning (again, which I don't like) as is used in the OP of this thread and provides a starkly different conclusion - that the failure rate of SPs who were thought to be the best of their class is quite high.  A period which Bowden's article points out includes the Os selection of Brian Matusz.

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

Not sure the failure list for pitchers isnt the same basic failure rate for the position players.

You just need so many more pitchers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt.   While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA.  And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
  • Author
Posted
10 hours ago, hoosiers said:

So, former GM Jim Bowden is now writing for the Atlantic.  According to his research, there were 42 players taken among the 80 players selected in the first five picks of the 16 MLB drafts between 2000 and 2015 and only five of the 42 have justified the selection - Verlander, Price, Strausburg, Cole and Bauer.  Two of those pitchers, Verlander and Strausburg, were "no-brainer" decisions.  It is a hit rate far below WC's opening post.

I missed Bauer in my analysis. My bad.

I suspect Bowden's definition of success is much higher than mine.  I think Prior and Taillon are two examples of pitcher that did find some success in the majors.  And though Hochevar did not have success has a starter, he did as a reliever.  He should probably  have been switched to a reliever earlier in his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jagwar Hangout Grand Counsel

Jagwar

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Prior had 4 successful years in the majors before getting hurt.   While it is disappointing that his career was cut short many pitchers would kill for a 42-29 3.51 ERA.  And if many GM new that was the outcome this would still draft him.

I'm not a stat expert by any measure, but take away his magical 2003 season and where would he rank?

Maybe there needs to be another category for "Solid pick but Incomplete due to injury"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr. Chewbacca Jr. Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Mr. Chewbacca Jr.

Posted
Posted
On 5/28/2020 at 9:44 AM, survivedc said:

Gausman is a good example of why he is wrong, I think. Sure he never became an Ace like we all hoped but he certainly pitched like one in stretches. IMO you make that pick every time and hope that guy can iron out the issues that were somewhat apparent at draft time.

2014 - 2018 Gausman was pretty valuable. He wasn't an ace by any means, but an average pitcher is worth a pretty penny in free agency. You obviously would like to hit big on a #1 or #2 pick, but an around-league-average starting pitcher ain't worth nothin'.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
On 5/28/2020 at 11:27 AM, Jagwar said:

I'm not a stat expert by any measure, but take away his magical 2003 season and where would he rank?

Maybe there needs to be another category for "Solid pick but Incomplete due to injury"

Prior was a pitcher.  It wasn't a question of whether or not his arm was going to fall off, but of when.  His just fell off after a few really good seasons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WI O’s Fan AAA

WI O’s Fan

Posted
Posted

 

Here is a list of the top 5 selections for college bats for the last 17 years.  Everyone made it to the majors with 13 having good to great careers.   The O’s should draft a college bat either Torkelson or Martin.

2000 none

2001 Teixeira
2002 none
2003 Weeks
2004 none
2005 Gordon, Clement, Zimmerman, Braun
2006. Longoria
2007 Wieters
2008 Alvarez, Posey
2009 Ackley, Sanchez
2010 none
2011 none
2012 Zunino
2013 Bryant
2014 schwarber
2015 Swanson, Bregman
2016 Senzel, Ray
2017 none
 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jagwar Hangout Grand Counsel

Jagwar

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Prior was a pitcher.  It wasn't a question of whether or not his arm was going to fall off, but of when.  His just fell off after a few really good seasons.

Agreed. My point was that for a time Prior seemed like a fantastic pick until his arm did fall off.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Bemorewins
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Bemorewins · Posted

      Some owners spend and want to win (Mets, Padres, Phillies). Some are more interested in making money (Rays, Guardians, etc). If Rubenstein is a profits based owner (has to make money year after year like JA) vs an investment style o lever (accepts some years May come with a loss or small net gain) then we (the fans) will be screwed. We will be akin to the Rays who are content with being “good”. But they are never willing to do what it takes to be good enough. I hope Rubenstein and everyone associated with the business or the Orioles paid a lot of attention to all of the empty seats for playoff games. That is evidence of a fanbase/market place who is not fully engaged.  The onus is on the Orioles to give people a compelling reason to come out and spend money especially in this economy. And it cannot just be hey look we have a winning team. The franchise must do more including investing in the on field product (in terms of committed dollars like every other serious franchise who is trying to win a championship).
    • Hallas
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Hallas · Posted

      My recollection is that MLB has rules about how much debt teams are allowed to take on and how much money owners are allowed to infuse into their franchises.   They supposedly won't approve contracts if they think a contract will cause them to exceed these thresholds.
    • bobmc
      Walltimore

      By bobmc · Posted

      Yeah like Tony T but Tony has the ability to foul pitches at will.  I want Cowser to be more like @waroriole’s Rob Refsnyder and Holliday to be Steven Kwan.  Is that too much to ask of number one picks?  But I love Cowser and most of everything he brings. 
    • Too Tall
      Walltimore

      By Too Tall · Posted

      I can't say The Wall gives me all warm fuzzies but it doesn't swing at pitches a foot outside the zone or take a meatball right down the middle of the plate. It doesn't fail to move a runner over or lay down a decent sacrifice bunt. I've never seen it fail to get a hit with a runner in scoring position. At some point The Wall will probably be modified some but you build your team to play best in their home ball park. It's called home field advantage. IMO, Westy is the best right handed bat we have right now for this park. We need someone else like Westy that plays outfield. Bregman would be nice but I don't see it because of Westy and I have hopes Holliday becomes the OBP lead off hitter we need. Note - I'm still pissed but it's getting better. I think I'll live for another season.
    • Warehouse
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Warehouse · Posted

      I’d like to see a study showing that team spending is more closely correlated to owner net worth than team revenue.  There are rare instances where a team owner will subsidize spending (e.g., Cohen) but that’s the exception not the rule - and note that Cohen owns 97% of the Mets vs a much lower % for Rubinstein.  Rubinstein has already been explicit that he is not in this to lose money. 
    • Spakman
      Walltimore

      By Spakman · Posted

      Cowser’s  swing decisions are determined before the pitch is even thrown. And I’ve been saying this all year, and I even said this at the game. I go it’s too early to pinch it for him because his defense is too good but he is 100% going to strike out and that’s exactly what he did with bases loaded. He decides whether he is going to swing a pitch before even thrown This is why he swings at a pitch thrown pretty close to his face . And To be fair, he  had a pretty good season doing that but obviously can be  easily exploited
    • Just Regular
      Walltimore

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Cowser's progress was one of the more encouraging elements this season, especially on the defensive side. I was already crediting him with being Some Kind of Good major leaguer a post back. Between his and Adley's standout bad performances on the HBP and 2-0 count, I give Cowser more of a grace.     Sure he had predetermined intent to swing, but I think the follow through was some raw instinct as hand bones fractured. Adley not swinging was the lowlight how incapacitated he was.    I believe he commands the strike zone, but to feel so low you can't pull the trigger in that spot...sheesh.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...