Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Five things I learned about Elias after 2 draft classes.

I don't like his draft strategy!

I predict we will be looking for a new GM in a few years

 

 

Our first Elias hater. Somebody has to be first, so congrats!

[24fps]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Our first Elias hater. Somebody has to be first, so congrats!

He's not the first.  He may be the first not running on nuclear power.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, 24fps said:

He's not the first.  He may be the first not running on nuclear power.

Im not a fan so far. Obviously it’s subject to change but I just don’t feel good about it.

 

Also my opinions are usually pretty consistent. @Moose Milligan was joking suggesting suicide and declaring himself a Marlin fan during the draft through 4 rounds. Now he’s okay with how it went. Guess he got his refill of Prozac....LOL

@Tony-OH If everyone had the same opinion here there would be little to talk about and it would be boring.

 

I think passing on Martin will prove to be a mistake. Even if Kjerstad proves to be Adam Jones like with the bat, it’s still possible that he will turn out to be clearly the wrong decision.

As I said, we didn’t screw up the Adley Rutschman Pick thank god. But, I think they should change the current slotting model to closer to the NFL. So the player has no control about where they play. Stop high school selections by making you be two years out of high school. Make declaring first the draft the point of no return. 

[24fps]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Im not a fan so far. Obviously it’s subject to change but I just don’t feel good about it.

 

Also my opinions are usually pretty consistent. @Moose Milligan was joking suggesting suicide and declaring himself a Marlin fan during the draft through 4 rounds. Now he’s okay with how it went. Guess he got his refill of Prozac....LOL

@Tony-OH If everyone had the same opinion here there would be little to talk about and it would be boring.

 

I think passing on Martin will prove to be a mistake. Even if Kjerstad proves to be Adam Jones like with the bat, it’s still possible that he will turn out to be clearly the wrong decision.

As I said, we didn’t screw up the Adley Rutschman Pick thank god. But, I think they should change the current slotting model to closer to the NFL. So the player has no control about where they play. Stop high school selections by making you be two years out of high school. Make declaring first the draft the point of no return. 

Fair enough.  By the end of the second round, I was completely baffled by the approach and said as much.  I'm letting a little time go by to see if I can wrap my head around the proposition that the draft should be looked at as a whole and measured by some other metric than simply taking the consensus  best player available.  I'm certainly open to persuasion about that - Elias was brought on to shake things up and drag the Orioles into a more modern approach and this certainly qualifies IMO.

For the record, I'm a big, BIG fan of contrarian voices on message boards as long as they're sincere, defended and clearly not designed to troll, which is obvously not your intent.

Finally, I understand the current use of the word "hater" perfectly well, but I despise it and using it will usually get a rise out of me.  I don't think anybody who regularly posts here is a "hater".  I reserve that word for despots, mass murderers, unapologetic racists, and two ex-girlfriends.  Seems to work for me.

[foxfield]

58 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Fair enough.  By the end of the second round, I was completely baffled by the approach and said as much.  I'm letting a little time go by to see if I can wrap my head around the proposition that the draft should be looked at as a whole and measured by some other metric than simply taking the consensus  best player available.  I'm certainly open to persuasion about that - Elias was brought on to shake things up and drag the Orioles into a more modern approach and this certainly qualifies IMO.

For the record, I'm a big, BIG fan of contrarian voices on message boards as long as they're sincere, defended and clearly not designed to troll, which is obvously not your intent.

Finally, I understand the current use of the word "hater" perfectly well, but I despise it and using it will usually get a rise out of me.  I don't think anybody who regularly posts here is a "hater".  I reserve that word for despots, mass murderers, unapologetic racists, and two ex-girlfriends.  Seems to work for me.

This is just an outstanding post. Contrarian thought is necessary to ensure all angles are covered. I’d like to think that Elias has those in house and this isn’t a magic idea that was not fully considered. And the thoughts on haters is spot on as well. I wish it wasn’t used as much and your list is great. Well I don’t think I know the two ex girlfriends, but I am certain I can relate. 
 

And of course none of that means Elias’ draft will be successful. It’s a crapshoot when you follow every conventional thought. Sometimes the #2 is Reggie Jackson (‘66) or Verlander (‘04) sometimes its not.  The draft is littered with the ghosts of missed chances and empty dreams. It’s the nature of the beast. But it’s not like Elias skipped Jackson for Chilcott or Verlander for Bush.  

Its pretty simple to me. If I look at this draft through a lens to Astro past....I’m pretty optimistic. If I look at it through a lens of Oriole history, it’s pretty easy to see failure. 
 

Were due a change. I hope this it. 

[wildcard]

I am not a Elias hater.  I have been very supportive on him.  But now, it appears we are on different ends of the spectrum on pitching.  I agree drafting pitchers in more risky than drafting position players.  But quality pitching is sooooo important to  winning and going deep in the playoffs.  So though they are risky, to me that just means the GM should draft more of them.  If 50% fail, then draft more because they will be needed.   That is my approach.

It doesn't make any more sense to me for Elias to build a great player development  organization for pitchers and then not draft them.   Any more then it made sense for MacPhail and Duquette to draft pitchers high and not have a great player development department.   To be successful a team needs both.

After two drafts it would seem drafting pitchers high is not Elias approach.  Not even close.

I think not drafting Lacy so he can draft better 4th and 5th round high schoolers sounds pretty risky to me.

I know Elias is intelligent.   Beats my IQ by a mile.   So I guess I just have to sit back and learn.   But I am skeptical.

 

[backwardsk]

20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Frontline pitching is the toughest thing to draft.   Name the teams with 3/5 of a top homegrown rotation.   Name the teams with the best rotations in baseball.   How many are homegrown?    The old Oakland A's did it with Mulder, Hudson, and Zito.   Like a perfect storm.    It doesn't happen very often.   Or maybe it does and someone will point it out to me.     The O's had Palmer, Flanagan, McGregor, and Boddicker.    That was pretty impressive but Palmer was going out as Boddicker was coming in.   

Most successful staffs bring in outside pitching, but it’s not all that uncommon to win with a homegrown staff.  The Mets won the NLCS not that long ago with de Grom, Niese, Syndergaard, and Harvey.  (I know that Thor was drafted by Toronto, but not counting him as homegrown would be like the Orioles not counting Tillman)

The 2014 Giants had Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Cain, and Lincecum make 113 starts.

Not sure if you’d count 2016 Indians as only Tomlin of Kluber, Tomlin, Bauer, Carasco, and Salazar was drafted by Cleveland.  But that staff combined for one MLB season outside of Cleveland.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am not a Elias hater.  I have been very supportive on him.  But now, it appears we are on different ends of the spectrum on pitching.  I agree drafting pitchers in more risky than drafting position players.  But quality pitching is sooooo important to  winning and going deep in the playoffs.  So though they are risky, to me that just means the GM should draft more of them.  If 50% fail, then draft more because they will be needed.   That is my approach.

It doesn't make any more sense to me for Elias to build a great player development  organization for pitchers and then not draft them.   Any more then it made sense for MacPhail and Duquette to draft pitchers high and not have a great player development department.   To be successful a team needs both.

After two drafts it would seem drafting pitchers high is not Elias approach.  Not even close.

I think not drafting Lacy so he can draft better 4th and 5th round high schoolers sounds pretty risky to me.

I know Elias is intelligent.   Beats my IQ by a mile.   So I guess I just have to sit back and learn.   But I am skeptical.

 

I think it simply comes down to where the pitchers are on his board.   He’s not going to reach for a pitcher he doesn’t have ranked high in that spot.     And as I mentioned in response to an earlier post, we had more pitching prospects than hitting prospects prior to this draft, so it’s not the case that we had some burning need to rebalance our system.    

[Moose Milligan]

7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Im not a fan so far. Obviously it’s subject to change but I just don’t feel good about it.

 

Also my opinions are usually pretty consistent. @Moose Milligan was joking suggesting suicide and declaring himself a Marlin fan during the draft through 4 rounds. Now he’s okay with how it went. Guess he got his refill of Prozac....LOL

@Tony-OH If everyone had the same opinion here there would be little to talk about and it would be boring.

 

I think passing on Martin will prove to be a mistake. Even if Kjerstad proves to be Adam Jones like with the bat, it’s still possible that he will turn out to be clearly the wrong decision.

As I said, we didn’t screw up the Adley Rutschman Pick thank god. But, I think they should change the current slotting model to closer to the NFL. So the player has no control about where they play. Stop high school selections by making you be two years out of high school. Make declaring first the draft the point of no return. 

I'm not crazy about Kjerstad.  As I've said, I'd like to know if there were other players that Elias could have taken under slot at #2.  I'd have liked Gonzales.  Maybe Veen.  

But you can't look at one player for the entire draft.  This draft is more about than who they took at #2.  Looks like they talked some potential studs from not going to college and signing with Baltimore instead.  Nothing wrong with that.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think it simply comes down to where the pitchers are on his board.   He’s not going to reach for a pitcher he doesn’t have ranked high in that spot.     And as I mentioned in response to an earlier post, we had more pitching prospects than hitting prospects prior to this draft, so it’s not the case that we had some burning need to rebalance our system.    

You never have enough pitching.   Elias did not have to reach to draft Lacy.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You never have enough pitching.   Elias did not have to reach to draft Lacy.

I'd have been fine with him reaching for Hancock and having cash for an overslot later.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd have been fine with him reaching for Hancock and having cash for an overslot later.

Me too.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

You never have enough pitching.   Elias did not have to reach to draft Lacy.

Your right .....He reached over Lacy and grabbed Kjerstad that was ranked 10th on most boards. Lacy was the 2nd or 3rd best ranked player and generally thought of as the best pitcher in the draft. Selecting him at number #2 would have looked and felt like a way better value Pick there. 
 

Honestly I wanted Martin.....if he chose to go pitching and took Lacy I would’ve had no problem with it,

 

I believe BPA is the best approach....Clearly Elias does not,

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Your right .....He reached over Lacy and grabbed Kjerstad that was ranked 10th on most boards. Lacy was the 2nd or 3rd best ranked player and generally thought of as the best pitcher in the draft. Selecting him at number #2 would have looked and felt like a way better value Pick there. 
 

Honestly I wanted Martin.....if he chose to go pitching and took Lacy I would’ve had no problem with it,

 

I believe BPA is the best approach....Clearly Elias does not,

He picked the BPA in 2019.

So i would say that he doesn't think the BPA is the only approach.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He picked the BPA in 2019.

So i would say that he doesn't think the BPA is the only approach.

Right.   He’s flexible and believes it depends on the circumstances.     Which is probably the right way to think about it.   I still would have preferred Martin but I’m willing to see how this plays out.