Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Manny now has more homers as a Padre (164) than as an Oriole (162).  

He had a very rough start to his season, bottoming out at .611 OPS on May 17 and still only at .662 on June 18.   Since then, he’s had a .918 OPS.   

I’d put his Hall of Fame chances at better than 50/50.   He’s only 31 (baseball age) and is under contract for 9 more seasons.  He’s going to accumulate some numbers even as he goes through his decline phase.  And hopefully he’s got several very productive seasons left in him before the decline comes.  
 

I agree with that, I think he's better than a 50/50 chance.  There's an outside shot at 3,000 hits and 500 homers.

He's approaching 60 career rWAR, too and should probably clear 70 rWAR.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with that, I think he's better than a 50/50 chance.  There's an outside shot at 3,000 hits and 500 homers.

He's approaching 60 career rWAR, too and should probably clear 70 rWAR.

I’ve always felt that 70 rWAR was the line between having to justify why someone shouldn’t be in the HOF versus justifying why they should.  In other words, if you’re over 70, there needs to be a reason for you NOT to be in.  There are 70 position players over 70 WAR, and the only ones not in are Bonds, Pujols (not yet eligible), Trout (not yet eligible), Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Raffy Palmeiro, Bobby Grich, and Carlos Beltran.  Really, only Dahlen, Whitaker and Grich have no obvious reason why they’re not in.  And I wouldn’t bet against Beltran getting in eventually.  He’s gotten  46% and 57% of the ballots his first two tries.  

Edited Tuesday at 19:10 by Frobby

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always felt that 70 rWAR was the line between having to justify why someone shouldn’t be in the HOF versus justifying why they should.  In other words, if you’re over 70, there needs to be a reason for you NOT to be in.  There are 70 position players over 70 WAR, and the only ones not in are Bonds, Pujols (not yet eligible), Trout (not yet eligible), Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Raffy Palmeiro, Bobby Grich, and Carlos Beltran.  Really, only Dahlen, Whitaker and Grich have no obvious reason why they’re not in.  And I wouldn’t bet against Beltran getting in eventually.  He’s gotten  46% and 57% of the ballots his first two tries.  

Yep, we're in agreement on the 70 rWAR threshold. 

A championship would help Manny's cause, though I'm not sure if that's in the cards for him in the near future.  He needs a big moment on a big stage, too....as silly as that sounds, I do believe it matters in the eyes of some voters.

Not to derail, but Whitaker is a guy that belongs in the HoF, too.  I'm not sure why Grich never got serious consideration.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep, we're in agreement on the 70 rWAR threshold. 

A championship would help Manny's cause, though I'm not sure if that's in the cards for him in the near future.  He needs a big moment on a big stage, too....as silly as that sounds, I do believe it matters in the eyes of some voters.

Not to derail, but Whitaker is a guy that belongs in the HoF, too.  I'm not sure why Grich never got serious consideration.

In Grich’s case, I think his OBP skills weren’t appreciated at the time.  He was a .266 lifetime hitter in an era when that was maybe 10 points above average, but his .371 OBP was more like 45-50 points above average.  But OBP just wasn’t very valued at the time.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]