Draft Order 2021

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

Well don't I look and feel quite dumb...

My larger point was that changing the core dimensions of the field as they have existed for quite some time (Drungo can probably give the specifics) feels even more foundational of a change to me than the other two more "special case" adjustments they have made, which I don't particularly care for.

They moved the pitching distance and configuration often in the 1870s through 1893.  The current distance and the existence of the mound dates from 1893.

But it has also been about a century since we had anything like the increases in strikeouts we've seen in my fandom.  In 1981 there were less than 5 K/9, the last couple of years have approached nine.  When I first started getting into analytics there was a rule of thumb that a pitcher can't be successful for long at less than, say, four strikeouts per nine.  Since the start of 2019 no pitcher (good or bad) has thrown 30 innings with less than 4.15 K/9.

I think it's already a fundamental change that strikeouts (and homers) have nearly doubled since I started watching baseball.  So MLB can choose, do the foundational changes happen on their terms, or do they just happen?

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They moved the pitching distance and configuration often in the 1870s through 1893.  The current distance and the existence of the mound dates from 1893.

But it has also been about a century since we had anything like the increases in strikeouts we've seen in my fandom.  In 1981 there were less than 5 K/9, the last couple of years have approached nine.  When I first started getting into analytics there was a rule of thumb that a pitcher can't be successful for long at less than, say, four strikeouts per nine.  Since the start of 2019 no pitcher (good or bad) has thrown 30 innings with less than 4.15 K/9.

I think it's already a fundamental change that strikeouts (and homers) have nearly doubled since I started watching baseball.  So MLB can choose, do the foundational changes happen on their terms, or do they just happen?

I think there's a clear difference between natural evolution of the game (adjusting strategies, corresponding responses, etc.) vs. the league putting its thumb on the scale to effectuate a change.

[DrungoHazewood]

49 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think there's a clear difference between natural evolution of the game (adjusting strategies, corresponding responses, etc.) vs. the league putting its thumb on the scale to effectuate a change.

Yes. With the league putting it's thumb on the scale you have some control over where the game goes.  When you allow evolution to take its course you end up with the Reds hitting .212 with 1.5 homers a game and a strikeout every four PAs.  Evolution is guided by what's going to win this team the most games right now, even if we end up with something that isn't particularly entertaining.

[NCRaven]

I like games when balls are put in play.  Mountcastle puts balls in play.  I like Ryan Mountcastle.

[panick]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They moved the pitching distance and configuration often in the 1870s through 1893.  The current distance and the existence of the mound dates from 1893.

But it has also been about a century since we had anything like the increases in strikeouts we've seen in my fandom.  In 1981 there were less than 5 K/9, the last couple of years have approached nine.  When I first started getting into analytics there was a rule of thumb that a pitcher can't be successful for long at less than, say, four strikeouts per nine.  Since the start of 2019 no pitcher (good or bad) has thrown 30 innings with less than 4.15 K/9.

I think it's already a fundamental change that strikeouts (and homers) have nearly doubled since I started watching baseball.  So MLB can choose, do the foundational changes happen on their terms, or do they just happen?

The great increases in homers and strikeouts have occurred in the last few years. I think it may be because the players are practicing putting backspin on the balls when they hit them. The backspin will make the balls travel farther, but it's also harder to put backspin on a baseball by hitting it. If you watch Sports Center when they are showing highlights of homeruns, they usually show in slow motion some of the batters' swings. If you see this from the camera angle that is near the dugout facing the batter, you can see that the batters are swinging using a downward angle. The downward angle will put backspin on the ball(if it is hit just right). It's also harder to hit the ball when your swing has that angle. So if the batters hit the pitches just right, the balls will have backspin and if those balls are in the air they will have more of a chance of going over the fence. But it is also harder to make contact with the pitch, which makes an increase in strikeouts inevitable. 

Analytics have made the old idea of the level swing just something in the memories of us old-timers.

[Can_of_corn]

9 hours ago, panick said:

Analytics have made the old idea of the level swing just something in the memories of us old-timers.

I forget who it was, maybe Donaldson but he was talking about the traditional advice behind a level swing.  About how you should be trying to hit the ball up the middle.  The hitter in question was why would I want a swing that is designed to hit a single up the middle?

[sportsfan8703]

Any chance in the new CBA that they will allow draft picks to be traded?  I feel like Elias would definitely be a mover and a shaker. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Any chance in the new CBA that they will allow draft picks to be traded?  I feel like Elias would definitely be a mover and a shaker. 

I don't see why draft picks being tradeable would be something that would be relevant to the labor negotiation.  What does that have to do with the Player's union?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see why draft picks being tradeable would be something that would be relevant to the labor negotiation.  What does that have to do with the Player's union?

It would still have to be collectively bargained and part of the CBA as a whole.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It would still have to be collectively bargained and part of the CBA as a whole.

Serious question, why?

It has nothing to do with the Player's union.  That is the sort of change that MLB should be able to unilaterally make.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Serious question, why?

It has nothing to do with the Player's union.  That is the sort of change that MLB should be able to unilaterally make.

Let me go back to what I said...I’m assuming that it has to be collectively bargained because well, everything is.  
 

To answer to “why?” is simply what I just said...because everything is.  Does that mean it’s a good answer?  No but it doesn’t need to be.  I do think that since players will be involved, indirectly, in this decision that the union has to be ok with it.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me go back to what I said...I’m assuming that it has to be collectively bargained because well, everything is.  
 

To answer to “why?” is simply what I just said...because everything is.  Does that mean it’s a good answer?  No but it doesn’t need to be.  I do think that since players will be involved, indirectly, in this decision that the union has to be ok with it.

Gotcha.

I disagree that the Union would need to be involved.  This to me sounds like something that is an owners only issue. 

I could see them adding it to a CBA since it would be a convenient time to add it but that doesn't mean it would be subject to the collect bargaining process.

[Frobby]

On 9/30/2020 at 9:23 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Gotcha.

I disagree that the Union would need to be involved.  This to me sounds like something that is an owners only issue. 

I could see them adding it to a CBA since it would be a convenient time to add it but that doesn't mean it would be subject to the collect bargaining process.

I think the bottom line is we don’t know if the players get a say or not about this under the CBA.   

[Sports Guy]

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-factory-all-star-classic-features-2021-draft-prospects
 

Lawlar figures to be gone by the 5th pick (Most have him, Rocker and Leiter as the top 3 picks) but if he is still there, I wonder if Elias would go the HS route?  He has been all about college so far, for the most part.

[Oriole1940]

I do not know what Elias attitude is between raw HS vs. polished  College, but for a franchise which needs to win it all very soon, I hope it is polished college.  For franchises which are contending to win it all every year, or which have won a WS recently, maybe they go the HS route.  I trust he has a schedule of short term/long term improvement etc., from his  boss,  so that should influence his decision.