Trezza: Big off season questions

[wildcard]

Joe Trezza in one of his better articles outlined the possible player movement over the off season giving names and dates that will force the issue. https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-2020-offseason-faq

I will add to that:  The 40 man roster is currently at 36 with four players on the 60 day IL:  Martin and Mancini are likely to be added and Kohl Stewart is also a likely add because the O's will need starters especially if Cobb is traded over the off season.  Leblanc will go Free Agent and not return.  That will leave the 40 man roster at 39.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/roster/40-man

Joe mentions all these players as possible adds to be protected from the Rule 5 draft:  Baumann, Lowther, Diaz, Bannon, Pop, Bannon, Mattson  and Wells .   He thinks five might be added.  I think there is room of  seven if that is what Elias wants to do.  Soft tosser Wells probably could not stay on a major league roster all season without being options.  So the O's may risk him.

Here are the six I see that could be removed by Nov 20th. (ages are their 2021 baseball age)

Kline:   is 29 and has been DFA'd before.  He has not yet established himself as a major leaguer.  The O's would offer him a AAA contract and an invite to ST.

Hess: 27, has a 5.86 career ERA and a 6.43  ERA in 2020.  No much danger of him being picked.  AAA contract with invite to ST

Sulser:  31, had a 5.56 ERA as a late/mid reliever in 2020.  AAA contract with a ST invite.

Wynns: 30, Catch and throw catcher with little offensive ability.   AAA contract with ST invite

Holaday: 33, Catch and throw catcher with a 627 career OPS.  Signed a AAA contract last year with an opt out date.  Might do the same again in 2021 with AR a year away.  Good guy to have in ST and with young pitchers.

Andrew Velazquez:  26,  Very good defensive SS/2B that can't hit a lick.   476  career OPS in 2020.   Lot of guys like this flowing around.  AAA contract with ST invite.  I actually could see him being in the majors with the O's next season as Iglesias' back up.

That's  six spots plus the open spot that allows Elias to keep all 7 if he wants.

Then there are the O's players on the bubble:  Cobb and his contract;  Nunez, Alberto, Severino, Armstrong who are all  arbitration eligible and Ruiz who has not established himself after two seasons.

Cobb: Will be on the market this off season.  O's would like to dump whatever part the of the contract they can. With one year left he is something like Villar last year.

Nunez: Trezza makes the point that his homers may make him too expensive in arbitration for the O's rebuild.   Plus the roster crunch and finding at bats for Diaz makes a non tender or a trade more likely.

Alberto:  2nd year of arbitration coupled with a 635 OPS in 2020  after a 609 OPS in 2019 vs right-handers makes him an expensive platoon player.  He would be nice to have in the lineup vs lefties but at what cost and is there room on the 26 man roster for him.  He is out of options.

Armstrong:  There is a place in the pen for him if he does not cost too much and  if they think the back injury will not re-occur.  1st year of arbitration. No options left.

Severino: O's need catchers in 2021 to bridge to Rutschman in 2022.  They also need to improve their defense. Hyde wants to stop watching balls go to the backstop.  1st year of arbitration.   Out of options. This is more a question of can Elias find anyone better  that is as cheap as Severino.

Ruiz: Has had two season to establish himself at 3B and he has not accomplished that.  Elias will no doubt be looking for someone better and just as cheap.

The negotiations that Elias has with the arbitration players before Nov 20th when rosters are set could be the difference between going and staying.

In an off season that looks quiet for the O's concerning adding expensive free agents, that does not mean there could not be quite a bit of movement on and off the 40 man roster.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I don't see how Mancini is a lock.

Not unless you know something about his health that I don't.

[Moose Milligan]

Let the hand wringing over our middling prospects begin!!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Let the hand wringing over our middling prospects begin!!

Hey it's a sign of progress that they might not protect someone that another team would want.

[Camden_yardbird]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see how Mancini is a lock.

Not unless you know something about his health that I don't.

And as I have said before. It might be the end of my Orioles Fandom if they did this.  I know, its a business, but you work on a 1 year contract, you put him on the 60 day if necessary, but you don't release a player who is going through cancer treatments.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

And as I have said before. It might be the end of my Orioles Fandom if they did this.  I know, its a business, but you work on a 1 year contract, you put him on the 60 day if necessary, but you don't release a player who is going through cancer treatments.

If he can't physically play you don't tender him a contract.  You non tender him and work out some sort of arrangement after the Rule V draft. 

If he can't play it makes no sense to possibly lose a player in the Rule V.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he can't physically play you don't tender him a contract.  You non tender him and work out some sort of arrangement after the Rule V draft. 

If he can't play it makes no sense to possibly lose a player in the Rule V.

So you add the 41st player off of another team's roster instead of protecting Mancini who could be the best offensive player on the Orioles next year.  I don't think so.

Trey has almost 6 months to be ready for the 2021 season.  He is already working to regain his strength.   There could  be a time in the off season where there has be a decision made about whether he can play or not and when. But a serious doubt that will be before Nov 20th.

Offer him a 3.8m base plus incentives for plate appearances.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

So you add the 41st player off of someone else roster instead of protected Mancini who could be the best offensive player of the Orioles next year.  I don't think so.

Trey has almost 6 months to be ready for the 2021 season.  He is already working to regain his strength.   There could  be a time in the off season were there has be a decision made about whether he can play or not and when. But a serious doubt that will be before Nov 20th.

Offer him a 3.8m base plus incentives for plate appearances.  

If you think Mancini could be the best offensive player on the Orioles next year you protect him.

Did you not read what I wrote?

What you do depends on his health. 

Mancini isn't so important that you pay him arbitration money to sit on the 60 day IL for the 2021 season.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you think Mancini could be the best offensive player on the Orioles next year you protect him.

Did you not read what I wrote?

What you do depends on his health. 

Mancini isn't so important that you pay him arbitration money to sit on the 60 day IL for the 2021 season.

The O's have until Nov 20th to make the call on whether Trey will be healthy enough to tender.  They can certainly take that time.    He will be almost 2 month into be strength build up by that time. 

I am sure Elias has him penciled in on his board for a 40 man spot at this point.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The O's have until Nov 20th to make the call on whether Trey will be healthy enough to tender.  They can certainly take that time.    He will be almost 2 month into be strength build up by that time. 

I am sure Elias has him penciled in on his board for a 40 man spot at this point.

Exactly, in pencil, not ink.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Exactly, in pencil, not ink.

I changed the OP to likely be added.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I changed the OP to likely be added.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Holoday is a free agent after the World Series and won’t count against the 40.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let the hand wringing over our middling prospects begin!!

or the 8 utility infielders that some want to protect.

[Roll Tide]

I don’t think Elias will give up on Alberto at this point.