Who are the 2020 #1 and #2 Prospects?

[wildcard]

74% of the poster get it.  Its hard to beat a dominating starting pitcher that is durable and young on a prospect list.  It takes a player at a premium position like catcher or shortstop that has great potential offensively and defensively.   Luckly the O's have both players.  AR and Grayson.

Kjerstad with rated 8 to 12 in the draft not 2nd.  Elias gamed the #2 pick to get better players in the 4th and 5th rounds.  The fact that his defense is rated somewhere around average discounts his overall rating.

Mountcastle rates high as a hitter but not defensively because of his weak arm.  We has seen the weak arm from left field. 1B and DH are lower rated defensive positions.   The fact that he is in the majors makes him  more certain on offense but also shows us his limitations on defense.

That said all four on these players can play major roles on a contending O's team.  I am glad the O's have them.  Even though I would have taken Lacy over Kjerstad and the 4th and 5th round picks.

[ChrisP]

6 hours ago, now said:

Going with the Can't Miss (Rutschman) and the Sure Thing (Mountcastle).

With MC proving it clearly at the MLB level, he's my #2 as well. Only 14% (6/43) agree as of now...

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

But they are already performing as major leaguers and doing well?

Merely making it to the majors doesn’t necessarily move someone up the prospect list, some guys show up and play lousy. But despite his defense, MC has done well, and Akin and Kremer have been quite good. That has to count for something especially when Kjersted hasn’t done a thing yet.

They did well in a SSS.

It counts for something..but not a ton.  Kremer probably moves ahead of all pitching prospects not named Hall or GRod.  Now, I personally had him there anyway but that was far from a consensus.  Akin moves ahead of everyone else.  Again, not everyone had that.  You may have had Baumann or Lowther or whoever ahead of those guys.  You shouldn’t now.  They are all close, so the tiebreaker, so to speak, can be what they did in the majors.

[ChosenOne21]

IIRC, Tony weighs upside more than "proving it" at higher levels, even MLB. He asks himself who he'd rather have in the organization. Mountcastle looked pretty great in a little over a month of MLB play, but even if we assume he's a 3 WAR left-fielder going forward, I can see Tony preferring to have a potential TOR arm or 4-5 win rIght-fielder over him

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They did well in a SSS.

It counts for something..but not a ton.  Kremer probably moves ahead of all pitching prospects not named Hall or GRod.  Now, I personally had him there anyway but that was far from a consensus.  Akin moves ahead of everyone else.  Again, not everyone had that.  You may have had Baumann or Lowther or whoever ahead of those guys.  You shouldn’t now.  They are all close, so the tiebreaker, so to speak, can be what they did in the majors.

That’s what I would do. I’m moving Zimmermann up, too but I’m not sure how far.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

Is Mountcastle Akin and Kremer all retain prospect status, they all have to be ahead of Kjersted, don’t they? Prospect is all about potential and Heston hasn’t faced a professional pitch, and the others have all had professional success. 

You have to remember, my list is always who would you rather have in your system if you could only have one. Kjerstad has a ton of potential, but has never taken a professional at bat and we only got a small part of his Junior year. That makes his risk profile higher then some others on the high part of the list.

Saying that, I could have built a case for 2-4 in being any order and #5 is in the conversation. 

[Frobby]

Last year Tony (in consultation with Luke) had the top 5 this way (current grade/future grade/ceiling):

1. Rutschman 50/70/70

2.  Rodriguez 40/60/70

3.  Hall 30/60/70

4.  Mountcastle 50/60/65

5.  Hays (no longer eligible).

Obviously Tony has heard a lot more than we have about what went on at the Bowie alternate site.  But the reports I’ve read/heard on Rutschman have been glowing, so I think there’s no way he’s moved off the no. 1 perch.   I recall Tony reporting early in camp that Hall had been pretty wild, and Matt Blood has said he and Rodriguez both have good stuff but need to gain consistency.    With Rodriguez being a year younger than Hall, I see no reason based on that information that Hall would have leapfrogged Rodriguez.  If anything, the gap may have widened a little depending on how the back half of Hall’s camp was.    

So then the issue is where do you insert Mountcastle and Kjerstad.   Mountcastle made a good case that his hit tool will carry over to the majors, that plate discipline won’t be a huge issue for him, and that he has more speed than we realized.    His defense remains a work in progress.    Overall, I think he did enough to jump over Hall, but not Rodriguez.    But, it depends a lot on what else Tony heard about Bowie.    

As to Kjerstad, he’s a complete wild card to me.    Obviously, Elias thought enough of him to pick him no. 2 overall, and even if you see that as part of an overall strategy to save money to spend lower in the draft, you don’t do that unless you are convinced that the player selected is still a very top talent.   On its face, the money we paid him  is still much more than we paid Rodriguez or Hall, so at least as of draft day, he was more highly regarded than those two were when they were selected.   The issue is, (1) both Rodriguez and Hall have improved their status nationally since they were drafted, and (2) Kjerstad had a short college season this year and then no pro experience, so it’s really hard to judge where he should be.   I’d put him 3rd, 4th or 5th, but it’s guesswork where he belongs in that group.