Who are the #15 and #16 Prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who are the #15 and #16 Prospects?

[Frobby]

One name I haven’t seen listed yet is Hunter Harvey, who is still rookie-eligible.  He was ranked 10th last year. For now I will assume he’s been downgraded after being somewhat less impressive in 2020 than in 2019, but it’s also possible that Tony didn’t realize he was still eligible.   

The next two on last year’s list were Wells and Rom.   That’s not a pairing here, but Zimmermann did reach the majors and didn’t embarrass himself, so Wells and Zimmermann is possible.   Assuming Tony meant what he said about not shuffling the order of incumbent players who weren’t in Bowie, McKenna-Hall and Hall-Mayo aren’t possibilities since there are several incumbent players ahead of Hall.   

That leaves Baumler-Mayo or Mayo-Baumler.    The latter seems more likely since Mayo was the higher pick and got the higher bonus.    

As between Mayo-Baumler and Wells-Zimmermann, I think Tony will go with the younger pairing with more upside.    Wells and Zimmermann are both 5th starter/swingman types.   And my gut tells me that Wells not being invited to Bowie is a bad sign for him.   So I’m going Mayo-Baumler.   

[ChosenOne21]

I think it's got to be Mayo/Baumler here. Wells wasn't even at Bowie, and Zimmerman didn't impress. I know Tony like McKenna less than just about everyone and Hall has a few question marks as a player. Given how highly other 2020 draftees have been ranked, I'm going Mayo/Baumler since I've heard slightly better things about Mayo and FWIW he was the higher pick

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

One name I haven’t seen listed yet is Hunter Harvey, who is still rookie-eligible.  He was ranked 10th last year. For now I will assume he’s been downgraded after being somewhat less impressive in 2020 than in 2019, but it’s also possible that Tony didn’t realize he was still eligible.   

The next two on last year’s list were Wells and Rom.   That’s not a pairing here, but Zimmermann did reach the majors and didn’t embarrass himself, so Wells and Zimmermann is possible.   Assuming Tony meant what he said about not shuffling the order of incumbent players who weren’t in Bowie, McKenna-Hall and Hall-Mayo aren’t possibilities since there are several incumbent players ahead of Hall.   

That leaves Baumler-Mayo or Mayo-Baumler.    The latter seems more likely since Mayo was the higher pick and got the higher bonus.    

As between Mayo-Baumler and Wells-Zimmermann, I think Tony will go with the younger pairing with more upside.    Wells and Zimmermann are both 5th starter/swingman types.   And my gut tells me that Wells not being invited to Bowie is a bad sign for him.   So I’m going Mayo-Baumler.   

I don't believe Harvey is eligible. I think he has too much time on the 25-man roster. MLB Pipeline removed him as well.

I will say if he was eligible, he would be coming up soon, but would not be above the guys listed so far.

[hoosiers]

The signing bonuses (even if inflated for HS prospects) of Mayo/Baumler suggest to me they are second/third round talents and so would be appropriate here IMO.   

[HowAboutThat]

I need to do some research to make my choice, so I went to the MLB prospect list, and man, they don’t agree with this list at all. No help there!

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

The signing bonuses (even if inflated for HS prospects) of Mayo/Baumler suggest to me they are second/third round talents and so would be appropriate here IMO.   

I don't think it's a good sign for the system as a whole when so many current draftees are ranking this high.  These kids barely got to play this year and it seems as if they are making the list because they haven't had a chance to shows the flaws in their game.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's a good sign for the system as a whole when so many current draftees are ranking this high.  These kids barely got to play this year and it seems as if they are making the list because they haven't had a chance to shows the flaws in their game.

I don't know if it shows a flaw in the system, but it does show they have the upside of a regular everyday player or starter and yes, with the limited amount we know about them professionally, their upside rates them higher than guys I see as having more risk or less ceiling. 

I will almost always take a guy with a chance to be 50 before I started going with guys I think will end up 45s or 40s.

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's a good sign for the system as a whole when so many current draftees are ranking this high.  These kids barely got to play this year and it seems as if they are making the list because they haven't had a chance to shows the flaws in their game.

I think it's more that Tony values potential over proven production if the production comes with a limited upside. 

Adam Hall is one player that comes to mind.  If we are going on strictly production, he would have to be considered for the top 15. 

One guy I'm surprised we haven't seen as an option on these lists is Darell Hernaiz.  From reports, he outperformed Gunnar both offensively and defensively in short season ball last year. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't believe Harvey is eligible. I think he has too much time on the 25-man roster. MLB Pipeline removed him as well.

I will say if he was eligible, he would be coming up soon, but would not be above the guys listed so far.

I am not 100% sure, but I think he’s in just under the wire.   For 2019, only service time before Sept. 1 counts, and he had 15 days I think.   This year everything counts, and he has 29 days.    So that’s 44.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I am not 100% sure, but I think he’s in just under the wire.   For 2019, only service time before Sept. 1 counts, and he had 15 days I think.   This year everything counts, and he has 29 days.    So that’s 44.  

The only ting pipeline is useful for for me is to gauges when players "graduate" from rookie eligibility and they graduated him. So I'm going to graduate him as well as he really was on the roster all year this year although with his usual DL time.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only ting pipeline is useful for for me is to gauges when players "graduate" from rookie eligibility and they graduated him. So I'm going to graduate him as well as he really was on the roster all year this year although with his usual DL time.

Fine with me.   He’s been on the prospect list long enough!

[HowAboutThat]

Ummmm Tony... with respect, shouldn’t it be “Who ARE the x and Y prospects.”?

[Tony-OH]

20 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I think it's more that Tony values potential over proven production if the production comes with a limited upside. 

Adam Hall is one player that comes to mind.  If we are going on strictly production, he would have to be considered for the top 15. 

One guy I'm surprised we haven't seen as an option on these lists is Darell Hernaiz.  From reports, he outperformed Gunnar both offensively and defensively in short season ball last year. 

Especially at this point on the list. Both Mayo and Baumler are such unknowns, but have nice ceilings so yeas, I'd prefer to have them in the system over the others. Saying that, these rankings are not done with as much information as we've had in the past so we have to take their rankings with a grain of salt. They could be way too low or high.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s face it, so many of our prospects are unproven guys.  We just don’t know.  If the top ranked guys are unproven at all or haven’t reached the upper levels of the minors.

The lost year makes lists like these difficult to really gauge.  Take a guy like Baumann.  He took a huge leap in 2019. There easily could have been players who would have done the same thing this year.

These lists are always largely guesses based on relatively limited info.  This year the guessing is even more pronounced.

I think it also depends on your criteria on these lists.  For example, I think if all you did was judge upside, you could likely argue Mayo is a top 7 guy.  However, I don’t think you can do these lists based solely on upside.